[情報] 2013 Top10 Prospects 1~ 5(Prospect361)

[vg175 (非典型廢言)]

http://prospect361.com/nl-team-prospects/washington-nationals/

5. Matt Skole (3B/1B) ★★★

DOB: July 30, 1989      BP: Georgia
Ht: 6-4    Weight: 230  Bats: L   Throws: R   ETA: 2013-14 
Year   Class   AB   R   HR   RBI   SB   Avg   OBP   C%   BB%   BABI
2012    A-A+  413  84   27   104   11  .291  .426 67.8  24.0   .362 

Anybody who hits 27 home runs in only 343 at-bats, no matter what the
level, gets your attention.  That stat line belongs to Matt Skole of
the Washington Nationals.

只要有任何人能在343個打數裡敲個27轟，不論是哪個層級都值得你多加留意。
例如說華盛頓國民的Matt Skole。

Skole was a fifth round pick in the 2011 draft out of Georgia Tech.
His best tool is bat speed that he leverages to hit balls a long way.
The swing is fairly long as you might imagine which helps to explain
his 68% contact rate.  Also part of his profile is a 24% walk rate.

就讀喬治亞理工的Skole是2011年第五輪新人，他最棒的武器是可以把球夯很遠
的揮棒速度；然而揮棒幅度大相對就可以想像為何他的擊球率只有68%。另外保
送率則有24%。

So, if you combine a lefty hitting 6-foot-4, 230 pound player who
makes scary-poor contact with the ability to take a walk, you start
having visions of Adam Dunn or Carlos Pena.  Candidly, that’s the
upside of Matt Skole and while I don’t think he’s the next Adam Dunn,
a Carlos Pena type player might not be  out of the question, although
he’s a below average defender.

因此，如果你看到一個6呎4吋230磅，揮空率驚人卻又能凹保送的左打，你會聯
想到 Adam Dunn或Carlos Pena。公平一點，往好的方面想我認為他也有可能不
會長成Dunn/Pena那一型的球員，雖然他也是個低於平均的悲劇防守者。

A similar profile is surfacing in the Arizona Fall League.  In
46 at-bats, he has 18 strikeouts, nine walks, and two home runs.  Will
this play at the highest level?  The margin of error is razor thin but
the bat speed is special and that just might be enough to push him there.
I do believe it will be as a first baseman　 or left fielder.

類似的小樣本也發生在 AFL。46個打數裡吞了18K，9次保送與2轟。這樣的球員
還能有更好的發展嗎？也許無利可圖。不過他的揮棒速度真的很特別 ，這也許
就足夠將他推往更高層級。我相信他會被養成一壘或左外野手。

4. Lucas Giolito (RHP) ★★★★

DOB: July 14, 1994      BP: California
Ht: 6-6   Weight: 225   Bats: R    Throws: R   ETA: 2016 
Year   Class   IP   H   ER   HR   BB/9   K/9   ERA   WHIP
2012       R  2.0   2    1    0      0     2  4.50   1.00 

Lucas Giolito was viewed as a potential number one overall pick in the
2012 draft, but an elbow injury in the second game of his senior season
in high school, dropped him to the 16th pick and the Washington Nationals.

只論潛力的話Lucas Giolito被認為足以在今年選秀裡居冠。但今年在高中主投
的第二場比賽手肘就出問題，也使他掉到16順位才被華盛頓國民選上。

At 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, Giolito not only has size but a pitching
arsenal that exceeds his age and experience.  He throws a mid 90’s
fastball that can hit triple digits, a knock-out curve and a plus
change-up.  His mechanics are excellent with great posture and balance,
in fact the follow through and landing is nearly picture-perfect.  His
delivery is easy with a long extension in his throwing elbow, almost
telling the pitching Gods, no inverted W.  Yet, he blew out his elbow
in August and had Tommy John Surgery (TJS) a few weeks later.

6呎6吋加上225磅的身材， Giolito有的不只是尺寸，蘊含的投球能力也幫助他
超越年齡及經驗的不足。他能投出 mid-90甚至三位數的速球，用作決勝球的曲
球與水準以上的變速；他的投球機制十分傑出，姿勢及平衡度都很棒 ，事實上
動作開始到左腳落地為止簡直就接近一幅畫那般完美。球的出手相當流暢 ，從
投球手肘延展過來，幾乎可以說是投球動作教科書，而非inverted W。
（inverted W是容易受傷的投球姿勢，像 http://0rz.tw/K0aMd 這張小史）
然而他手肘還是在八月炸開，幾週後也進廠TJ去了。

With a combination of elite stuff, good command and excellent pitching
mechanics, you can see why the Nationals took the risk and signed
Giolito with their first round pick knowing full well, there was a good
chance that he needed TJS.  He has number one starter potential and with
the success of TJS, this could be just a blip on the radar.  Remember,
he’ll just turn 19 next July and should be back pitching shortly thereafter.

看看這樣一個同時擁有頂尖才能，優質控球與超凡投球機制的投手 ，不難理解
為何國民在了解他很可能必須TJ下還願意在首輪將賭注壓到他身上 。他具備一
號先發的潛質，只要手術成功，這段歷程也不過是浮光掠影而已 。別忘了他明
年七月才會滿19歲，應該也會在那之後很短的時間內就回到投手丘。

3. Alex Meyer (RHP) ★★★★

DOB: January 30, 1990   BP: Indiana
Ht: 6-9   Weight: 220   Bats: L    Throws: R   ETA: 2014-15 
Year   Class   IP   H   ER   HR   BB/9   K/9   ERA   WHIP
2012    A-A+  129  97   41    6   3.14  9.70  2.86   1.10 

And now playing power forward for your Washington Bullets…I mean
Wizards, is 6-foot-9 Alex Meyer.  Right…that sounds more plausible
then 6-foot-9 Alex Meyer taking the mound, but that’s what we have.

現在為您介紹華盛頓子彈．．．我是說巫師啦，的6呎9吋大前鋒 Alex Meyer。
是的，6呎9吋的 Alex Meyer似乎該去打籃球，但我們真的有這麼一個巨人。

Usually tall and long pitchers struggle with their release point and
therefore their control, but Meyer hit the ground running in 2012 and
pitched well with a 3.14 BB/9 in 129.0 innings.  It wasn’t always
pretty, particularly in the beginning of the year where he had a
stretch of 11 walks in 22.2 innings.  However, he improved as the year
went on and had some down-right dominating performances towards the
end of the year as he moved to High-A.

通常高大投手的放球點容易出麻煩，這也會影響他們的控球。但Meyer今年全力
以赴，129局裡BB/9是很OK的3.14。也並不是一直這麼理想，特別是球季開始的
22.2局中就送出11次保送。然而隨著球季進行他能夠不斷改進 ，季末升到高階
1A後也有幾次屠殺性的演出。

The arsenal is impressive with a fastball that sits in the mid 90’s,
a plus slider that really gets a lot of swing and misses, and a
change-up that looks pretty good as well.  His splits are fine and in
fact, he’s nearly unhittable by both right and left-handed batters.
Throw in the size and his G/F rate of over 2.10 and Washington just
might have something special with Meyer.

他的武器是 mid-90的速球，搭配夠水準的滑球取得相當多揮棒落空；變速看來
也很讚。不管打者站在哪邊他都能解決。事實上 ，不管左打右打幾乎沒人能碰
到球。以他的身材加上 2.10滾飛比，華盛頓也許真的拿到一個很特別的傢伙。

Meyer’s pitching mechanics are pretty good with nice balance and
posture but the delivery is far from easy.  It really looks like he’s
trying to throw hard; everything from his arm speed and facial
expression show an exaggerated effort.  Over time, I think these
mechanical issues will be smoothed out and the delivery improved.

Meyer也有很棒的投球機制，姿勢與平衡都沒問題。但出手還不夠流暢。從出手
速度及臉部表情看得出來他真的很用力在投，只不過真的是操過頭了 。我想這
部分的問題會隨著時間改善。

In the end, I believe the path to success will not be linear for Meyer
but he should move to Double-A next year and could get a look in 2014.
There is a lot to like.

我相信通往成功的路對Meyer來說絕非一帆風順。但他明年應該可以從2A開始並
且有望在2014年能有一番作為，真的很有機會。

2. Brian Goodwin (OF) ★★★★

DOB: November 2, 1990   BP: North Carolina
Ht:6-1    Weight: 195   Bats: L    Throws: L   ETA: 2014 
Year   Class   AB   R   HR   RBI   SB   Avg   OBP   C%   BB%   BABI
2012    A-AA  382  64   14    52   18  .280  .384 76.7  16.0   .329 

I had a chance to see Brian Goodwin play several times in 2012 with
the latest in the Arizona Fall League in November.  I really liked what
I’ve seen and believe he has all-star potential with a nice
power/speed combination.

我今年有幾次機會觀察 Brian Goodwin的比賽，包括11月舉行的AFL。我真的很
喜歡自己看到的，也相信他包含砲瓦與速度方面都具有全明星級的天賦。

Goodwin’s mechanics are solid with a nice compact swing and great bat
speed.  The setup is a little noisy, but he’s able to get the bat head
into the zone quickly and rotate his hips well to drive the ball.
I saw him hit an absolute bomb in the Rising Stars Game that showed the
kind of power that Goodwin should be able to delivery in the future.

Goodwin的揮棒機制十分完整，揮擊速度非常快。準備動作稍嫌雜亂，但他能很
快就把棒頭滑過打擊區，轉得很漂亮的屁屁可以幫助他把球打得結實 。我曾在
未來之星賽見識過他純粹的砲瓦，Goodwin的未來絕對值得期待。

As an outfielder, I think he has a chance to be a first division center
fielder.  He uses his speed well but his tracking of outfield balls
could use some improvement.  While the Nationals have been playing
Bryce Harper in center, Goodwin would be an upgrade defensively, albeit
with a weaker arm.  I could see Harper holding down the fort until
Goodwin is ready for the 2014 season.

作為一個 OF，我想他有機會成為最強分區的中外野手。他把自己的速度運用得
很棒，但追蹤落點方面還需要加強。國民已經有Harper負責中外野，Goodwin取
代 Harper的話對防守部分是升級，雖然臂力比不上Harper。Harper可以繼續目
前的守位直到Goodwin準備好在2014接班為止。

1. Anthony Rendon (3B) ★★★★★

DOB: June 6, 1990       BP: Texas
Ht:6-0    Weight: 195   Bat: R     Throws: R   ETA: 2013-14 
Year   Class   AB   R   HR   RBI   SB   Avg   OBP   C%   BB%   BABI
2012    R-AA  133  28    6    12    0  .233  .363 78.2  17.3   .253 

Very few right-handed hitters have a beautiful swing, but Anthony Rendon
is an exception.  His setup is quiet; gently sliding his hands back into
his load before exploding the bat through the zone.  His swing is compact
giving his bat maximum contact ability as it travels through the zone.
It’s a plus hit-tool , with future plus power potential.  However,
it’s hard to perform when you’re constantly sitting on the DL.

很少右打者能揮出如此美麗的弧度， Anthony Rendon除外。他的準備動作很沉
靜，猛烈出棒前先溫和地將他的手滑向後方 ，強而有利的揮擊使他的棒子能以
最大力量轟炸好球帶。這是跟隨著充滿天賦的砲瓦而來的加分工具 。然而如果
三不五時就得躺平，真的很難在傷兵名單裡找到什麼表演空間。

When you talk about Anthony Rendon, you have to talk about his injury
history.  He had both shoulder and ankle injuries in college that limited
his ability to play at a high-level.  His ankle injury had lasting
effects as he lost some of his speed and now is considered an average
runner.  Seemingly fully healthy, he fractured his ankle (his other ankle)
in the second game of his professional career and missed most of the
2012 season.  Some will say the injuries were freak in nature, but at
what point do you start labeling him as injury-prone?

當你談到 Anthony Rendon，就非得提傷病史不可。他的腳踝與兩個肩膀在大學
時代都受過傷，限制了他在高層級的表現；膝蓋傷勢影響到他的速度 ，他現在
被認為只是個平均水準的跑者。就在看起來完全健康的時候 ，他的另一個腳踝
又骨折了。這不過發生他在職業生涯的第二場比賽 ，今年也因此錯過絕大部分
球季。有些人說痛痛是天生的，但你什麼時候會把他歸類在痛痛人裡？

The other question that has surfaced with Rendon is where he will play?
First, Rendon is an above-average third baseman with gold-glove potential.
However, Ryan Zimmerman plays that position in Washington and is signed
through the end of the century.  There has been a lot of discussion about
moving Rendon to second, but I don’t believe he has the quickness to
play the position.  Furthermore, do you want to put a guy who has a
history of injuries at one of the most physically demanding positions on
the diamond?

另一個必須面對的問題是 Rendon要擺哪？首先，Rendon是水準以上的金手套級
三壘手，然而 Ryan Zimmerman與球團簽下的延長合約已經夠他卡三壘卡到世紀
末。有不少關於讓 Rendon移防二壘的討論，但我不相信他的敏捷度能夠站穩。
再說了，你真的想把一個傷病史豐富的傢伙擺在對身體負擔這麼高的位置嗎？

As I look back through what I’ve written about Rendon in this profile,
it might appear that I’m not high on him.  Actually, I’m not only high
on Rendon, I think he has a chance to be a future star.  The swing will
play, the power will come, and the defensive position will work itself
out; and this might all happen in 2013.

當我回頭看自己對 Rendon所做的描繪，也許我並沒有高估他。事實上我不只看
好 Rendon，我想他有機會成為明日之星。他會繼續揮棒，他的砲瓦將降臨，而
守位也能自己找到出路。或許這全部都將發生在2013年。

--
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◆ From: 220.133.12.197
※ 編輯: vg175           來自: 220.133.12.197       (11/23 20:29)
推 VaROne:Rendon放 LF/1B 吧!
推 s9527206:PUSH 太認真了!
推 ug945:雷燈有炮瓦可放1B
※ 編輯: vg175           來自: 220.133.12.197       (11/24 09:30)
→ vg175:剛剛又恢復孤家寡人 時間一下子多很多出來不知道要幹嘛的囧
→ vg175:Rendon應該還是會站3B吧 Zimmerman傳球回不來的話遲早得去1B
→ VaROne:我是很擔心Rendon的腳，老了範圍會縮很大，至於Zimer再觀察
→ VaROne:相對於其他人，他還是3B最好選擇
推 s9527206:哭哭 A麥被送走了
推 s9527206:未看先猜明年 Morse 和 Tyler Moore 其中一個會被交易
推 s9527206:天賦較好的Giolito、Solis都開TJ，Purke玻璃化，Ray今年
→ s9527206:大撞牆，加上 Rosenbaum 和 Karns，投手深度好像有點薄
推 s9527206:不過我覺得這交易其實還不錯啦，A麥目前算是賣在高點，
→ s9527206:他的天花板的確很高，但也有可能看得到吃不到。
推 s9527206:Span 本身條件非常符合 Rizzo 想找的開路先鋒/CF，也不貴
→ s9527206:就是這兩年痛了點讓人不太放心，只要他能保持健康就OK
推 s9527206:這下子打線補齊了，SP只差個5號也不會太難找，剩牛棚了
→ s9527206:我誠摯希望能把阿香帶回來。
→ vg175:據說香波簽約樣板的Jeremy Affeldt跟巨人簽3y/15M+3M簽約金
→ vg175:國民肯定出不起吧
推 s9527206:出不起也得簽，像香這樣年輕、成績好的左手牛畢竟不多見
→ s9527206:說到錢，人家道奇的石油都噴出來了，我們跟MASN的合約
→ s9527206:居然從6月弄到現在都還沒搞定...
→ VaROne:Peter Angelos在的一天，轉播權利金永遠無解，只能想辦法
→ VaROne:解除MASN獨家轉播權，才有機會拉高權利金
→ VaROne:Solis年初開TJ，明年春訓應該來的及準備好