[農場] Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects

[s9527206 (悠)]

時間不多，簡單翻譯，有錯麻煩不吝指教，感謝各位:)

原文：http://tinyurl.com/cu6rxbd

By John Sickels

1) Anthony Rendon, 3B, Grade B+: Borderline A-.I really like his bat, but I'm
concerned enough about his injury history to be a bit cautious with the grade
at this point. I think a healthy Rendon can play second base decently and the
bat should play anywhere.

 B+接近A-。我對 Rendon 的打擊有很高的評價，但鑑於他的傷痛史，在給排名上我會
 比較謹慎。若 Rendon 能維持健康他會是守備很不錯的二壘手，同時他的打擊能夠讓
 他站穩任何守位。

2) Brian Goodwin, OF, Grade B+: Stellar tools and shows the skills often
enough to make people drool, but he's erratic. Dominated Low-A but struggled
after jump to Double-A, which was not really surprising.

 明星級的天賦以及表現出的才華足以讓球迷們直流口水，但還不夠穩定。屠殺低階1A
 但升上2A後變成被屠殺，不過坦白說這不是很意外。

3) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Grade B: I have no idea what to do with this grade. A
healthy Giolito is a Grade A prospect, but Tommy John recovery is not
automatic and we can't assume that Lucas will follow the same path as Jordan
Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.

 我不確定該怎麼幫 Giolito 排名。健康的 Giolito 名列A級沒有問題，但TJ手術的
 修復率也不是100%，我們無法理所當然地斷定 Giolito 能夠和 Strasburg 及
 Zimmermann 一樣，復出後身手完全沒有打折。

4) Matt Skole, 3B, Grade B: No one ever doubted his power and he showed
better pure hitting skills than expected. His glove isn't terrible but with
Ryan Zimmerman ahead of him, Skole is bound for first base and I expect him
to be a productive power/patience slugger, though don't expect batting titles.

 沒人會質疑 Skole 的砲瓦，而他的打擊也比預期更好。在3B的守備不算太糟，但
 大聯盟已經有 Ryan Zimmerman 擋在他前面，Skole 等於被綁定只能往一壘發展。
 我預測 Skole 會是位兼具長打能力及選球耐心的砲手，不過別太期待他的打擊。

5) Nathan Karns, RHP, Grade B-: Recovered from labrum surgery to dominate
A-ball with 92-96 MPH sinker and nasty curveball. Projects as a number three
starter if his changeup improves, a power closer if it doesn't.

 從肩關節唇手術復出後靠著 92-96 mph 的伸卡以及銳利的曲球強暴了A階小聯盟的
 打者群。如果變速球能夠繼續進化則天花板上看 #3 SP，若否則還有機會轉職成為
 火球終結者。

6) Christian Garcia, RHP, Grade B-: Survivor of two Tommy John surgeries.
Still has very impressive stuff, throws strikes, and should thrive as a major
league reliever and possible closer. Just have to hope his arm holds up.

 動過兩次TJ手術還能在職棒界活下來並繳出好成績的真強者。stuff 令人驚艷，
 控球也不錯，應該會是很棒的牛甚至是終結者，不過前提是他的手臂能撐得住。

7) Sammy Solis, LHP, Grade B-: Another Tommy John guy. When healthy, shows
strong pitchability with low-to-mid-90s fastball, good curveball and
changeup. Mid-rotation guy if he recovers properly.

 又是一個TJ手術家族成員。健康時是一位同時擁有 90-95 mph 快速球以及不錯的
 曲球和變速球的優秀投手。若復健順利天花板上看中段輪值 SP。

8) Matt Purke, LHP, Grade C+: Another injured pitcher, this one with bursitis
that required shoulder surgery, supposed to be OK by spring. He hasn't been
the same since 2010 freshman season at Texas Christian, but perhaps the
surgery will restore his previous 91-95 MPH fastball, slider, and changeup.

 今年也受傷了，為了治療黏液囊炎最終動了肩膀手術，預計春訓時就能回來。如今
 的 Matt Purke 已經不是當年那位一度被視為狀元熱門人選的 Matt Purke 了。但
 也許這次手術能夠幫助他重新找回過去的 stuff。

9) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: Speed demon, very fast, 80 speed on the 20-80
scouting scale. Hits for average but is extremely impatient, resulting in
very few walks and OBPs that are very dependent on his batting average.
That's OK if he's hitting .300, but not if he's hitting .270.

 腿哥界的霸主，且具備高打擊率，但極度缺乏耐心，撿保送太少，上壘率完全是靠
 打擊率撐起來的。如果打擊率有3成還能彌補；如果只有2成7的水準就準備吃土吧。

10) Tony Renda, 2B, Grade C+: Cal Berkeley product, fast, good plate
discipline, fielding was better than advertised in the NY-P, second round
pick.Will he show enough pop to survive at higher levels?

 速度快，本壘板紀律佳，守備評價比在短期1A的實際表現要來得好。但能否展現出
 足夠的砲瓦並且在較高層級存活下來還是個問號。

11) Zach Walters, INF, Grade C+: Good throwing arm, has some pop, performed
very well in Double-A (.293/.326/.518) and adequately in Triple-A
(.269/.304/.399). Utility profile.

 臂力佳，也有一點砲瓦。今年在2A表現出色，升上3A後成績還算OK。工具人一枚。

12) Destin Hood, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools outfielder that I thought was a big
breakout candidate (oops) suffered through injury-plagued transition in
Double-A with lifeless .245/.301/.344 line in 94 games. Can still grow at age
23.

 天分很不錯的外野手，我認為 Hood 是一支很有機會翻身的潛力股。今年在2A因為
 傷病折磨導致成績非常慘澹，不過他才23歲，還有時間磨練。

13) Steven Souza, OF, Grade C+: Considered a busted prospect entering 2012
but had a rebound year, .297/.366/.572 with 14 steals in 353 at-bats in
Low-A/High-A at age 23. Has always had the tools, started to put some skill
together last year. Nobody seems to have really noticed him, but that will
change quickly in 2013 if he sustains this progress.

 在去年時一度被認為已經沒希望了，結果今年大反彈，以23歲的年紀在A階小聯盟
 繳出 .297/.366/.572 的打擊三圍，附帶14次盜壘成功。Souza 的天賦一直都在，
 但直到今年才終於將這些天賦轉為實績。目前還沒什麼人注意到 Souza，但如果他
 明年能夠證明今年不是僥倖成功，則一切將會完全改觀。

14) Brett Mooneyham, LHP, Grade C+: Erratic Stanford product posted 2.55 ERA
in NY-P, but with just 29 strikeouts in 42 innings. Live arm, mechanical
difficulties held him back in college. A challenge for the coaching staff but
he has upside.

 穩定性很差，短期1A的小樣本表現算是不錯，只是三振率不太好看。球速是有，
 但是由於投球機制不穩定使得 Mooneyham 在大學時期成長有限，對教練團而言該
 怎麼幫助他突破困境是一項很大的考驗，但 Mooneyham 確實很有天分。

15) Estarlin Martinez, OF, Grade C+: 20 year old Dominican has had problems
finding a position but has a promising bat. An outfielder now, he hit
.319/.385/.455 in the pitching-oriented NY-P and is a breakout candidate for
2013.

 年僅20歲的多明尼加新秀，這幾年一直找不到合適的守備位置，但打擊確實值得期待
 。目前是擔任外野手，今年在偏投手的 NY-P 聯盟(短期1A)依舊繳出不錯的成績
 (.319/.385/.455)。2013年值得注意的黑馬之一。

16) Carlos Rivero, 3B, Grade C+: Borderline C. Forgotten prospect from
Indians and Phillies system went from obscure waiver claim to strong Triple-A
performer and 40-man roster spot, hit .303/.347/.435, followed by an
excellent winter in Venezuela. Good glove at third base, still just 24 years
old. Could be nice utility guy for someone.

 C+接近C。被國民從 waiver 撿來，今年在3A成績出色，也因此進入40人保護名單，
 目前在委內瑞拉冬季聯盟表現也相當傑出。在3B的守備是金手套級的，同時也才24歲
 ，有機會長成不錯的工具人。

17) Sandy Leon, C, Grade C: Defense-oriented catcher can have long career as
a backup. Hit .322/.396/.460 this year at three minor league levels, but this
was completely out of context with the rest of his career and looks fluky to
me.

 以守備著稱的捕手，有機會以後備捕手的身分長期在大聯盟討生活。今年在低階1A、
 2A和3A的成績結算是 .322/.396/.460，但是這跟他過去幾年的打擊表現落差太大，
 以我來看這應該只是僥倖。

18) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade C: Tools outfielder saw power vanish in High-A,
hitting just three homers after 13 last year in 2011. Turns 22 in March,
still has time to develop.

 天分不錯，但今年在高階1A打球砲瓦完全消失。明年3月才會滿22歲，還有時間慢慢
 養成。

19) Brandon Miller, OF, Grade C: Hit .292/.354/.549 in NY-P with some of the
best raw power in the 2012 draft class, but Samford product has a big swing,
is impatient, and already 23.

 在短期1A的三圍是 .292/.354/.549，單論 raw power 算得上是今年選秀最佳之一，
 但也有不少缺點：揮棒幅度過大、缺乏耐性，且年紀23歲也不算年輕了。

20) Corey Brown, OF, Grade C: Old prospect at age 27, but has always had
tools including left-handed power, good speed, defense, and some walks.
Excessive strikeouts have held him back, but could be good fourth outfielder.

 27歲的老新秀，但一直擁有不錯的才能：一位具備長打能力的左打者、有不錯的速度、
 守備和選球。但過多的被三振次數也限制了 Brown 的未來性。應該會是不錯的 4th
 外野手。

OTHERS: Aaron Barrett, RHP; Robert Benincasa, RHP; Billy Burns, OF; Erik
Davis, RHP; Rick Hague, INF: Neil Holland, RHP; Jason Martinson, SS: Spencer
Kieboom, C; Pat Lehman, RHP; Chris Marrero, 1B; Christian Meza, LHP; Randolph
Oduber, OF: Ivan Pineyro, RHP; Wander Ramos, OF; Caleb Ramsey, OF; Robbie
Ray, LHP; Derek Self, RHP; Kylin Turnbull, LHP; Rob Wort, RHP.

 其他C級新秀。

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

評語：

The system has thinned out massively, but that's understandable: much of the
major league roster is home-grown, and farm system products were important in
key trades. So while the current list is not impressive, it should not be
taken as an indictment of the farm system: I suspect GM Mike Rizzo, scouting
director Kris Kline, and farm director Doug Harris will refill the pipeline
quickly.

 國民的農場深度大量地消失，但這完全可以理解：其一是國民隊的大聯盟名冊就有
 不少自產生養的球員(已從農場畢業)，其二是利用農作物去做關鍵性的交易也是很
 重要的。因此儘管目前這份農場名單不是很搶眼，但這不是國民組織的錯。我猜測
 Rizzo、球探長 Kris Kline 以及球員培養主份 Doug Harris 等人將能夠迅速重建
 起農場體系。

There is still some talent available. Anthony Rendon and Brian Goodwin both
have star-caliber ability. Rendon needs to stay healthy and Goodwin needs to
refine his talents, but any farm system would love to have them. Matt Skole
looks like a solid regular bat, and there are a variety of potential role
players who could help in one way or another. The Nationals usually move
their prospects slowly and many of the names on this list are old for their
levels, but several of these guys should reach Double-A this year and we'll
get a better read on their skills.

 這份名單裡依舊有一些可造之才。野手方面 Rendon 和 Goodwin 都具備明星級的才能
 ，雖然 Rendon 必須證明自己能維持健康，而 Goodwin 也還需要將潛在的天賦發揮出
 來，但任何農場都會很高興擁有這兩位球員。Matt Skole 似乎會是一位不錯的先發級
 打者，除了這三人之外還有不少擁有潛力的功能型球員，未來有機會以特定的專才為
 球隊做出貢獻。

 國民體系對於新秀的培育步調較為緩慢，因此名單裡有不少球員的年紀跟他們所在的
 層級相比顯得較老，其中有幾位選手已經足以升上2A，到時候我們才能較精確地解析
 他們的能力。

There is considerable raw material for a pitching staff, but the Nationals
are relying on good results from their doctors and rehab personnel. Giolito,
Solis, and Purke all project as starters, with Giolito a potential ace, but
they have to prove that they've recovered from surgery before their grades
reflect their full talent. Medical retread projects Nate Karns and Christian
Garcia show what is possible when things go right, and of course Strasburg
and Zimmermann are the poster boys for rehab. Beyond the talented-but-injured
group, there are a variety of possible bullpen contributors. Erik Davis is a
sleeper to watch for bullpen time in 2013.

Overall, the farm system is undoubtedly in a down phase, but the major league
roster is loaded and young. The player development guys have time to recharge.

  投手方面，不少投手都擁有一定潛力，而國民一直靠著其醫療及復健部門取得了很好
  的成果。Giolito、Solis 和 Purke 都預期可養成 SP，其中 Giolito 的天分無疑是
  ACE 級的，但這幾位都必須先證明自己已經完全自手術後恢復，其成績才算能夠反映
  出他們的真正才能。Nate Karns 及 Christian Garcia 已經證明即使受過重傷，透過
  醫學治療依舊能夠重新再站起來，而且也別忘了 Strasburg 和 Zimmermann 這兩位活
  看板。除了這些充滿天賦但被傷病纏身的新秀之外，還有幾隻不錯的牛，其中 Erik
  Davis 就是一位明年值得注意的潛力黑馬。

  總體而言，國民農場目前無疑處在跌停版，不過目前國民隊的大聯盟名冊已經滿編
  且平均年紀相當年輕，球員培養部門有充裕的時間來重新充實農場體系。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 114.24.76.149
→ s9527206:Baseball America 的排名上星期就出來了，只看前10名
→ s9527206:和 JS 幾乎一樣。不過免費文章的內容沒什麼重點就是了。
→ s9527206:沒有錢訂BA看付費文章就只能等 Byron Kerr 的摘要了。
→ s9527206:http://tinyurl.com/c3pugkp
→ s9527206:nationalsprospects 有整理一些討論，有興趣可以看一下。
※ 編輯: s9527206        來自: 114.24.76.149        (12/28 11:54)
推 vg175:官網自己的TOP20跟別人排的差不少 感覺官網非常看重"未來性"
推 vg175:但是官網把Chris Marrero排第四讓我覺得很謎
→ s9527206:官網的部分我實在不是很認同....
→ s9527206:到底要怎麼比才可以把 Marrero 和 Perez 排在 Skole 前面
→ s9527206:剛想了一想，Dsey 還是新秀的時候最好也不過就C+，
→ s9527206:連國民 TOP 10 都沒進過，結果現在人在大聯盟當先發SS，
→ s9527206:只能說新秀養成有時候真的很吃人品，排名參考即可。
推 vg175:打打停停的Marrero排第四 已經證明自己的Garcia排17 這...
→ vg175:單看Garcia別人肯定誤會"靠國民農場也太強惹 這咖都只排17"
→ VaROne:Desy當年被惡搞，打擊勉強只有A-Ball水準，被硬拉上2A
推 ddtddt:謝謝
推 Sparksfly: