[外電] Prospect Retrospective: Ian Desmond

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Prospect Retrospective: Ian Desmond
By John Sickels on Jul 8 2013, 8:00a

Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond is having his second consecutive
excellent season, hitting .284/.326/.506 (through Saturday) and currently
standing third among major league shortstops with a 3.0 fWAR. This follows on
the heels of his impressive 2012 breakout season. At age 27, Desmond it at his
peak.

華盛頓國民游擊手 Ian Desmond繼續他第二個了不起的球季。到週六
為止三圍是.284/.326/.506，現階段3.0 fWAR名列全聯盟游擊手第三
名。緊接著大放異彩的2012年，27歲的 Desmond正站在生涯高峰。

It was not always this way for the Nationals shortstop, but he is a good
example of a tools player who figured out his baseball skills, making him our
topic for today's Prospect Retrospective.

對這個國民游擊手而言情況並非一直如此美好。但他的確是個擁有工
具並終於找出使用之道很好的例子，也因此他成為我們今天Prospect
Retrospective的頭條。

Ian Desmond was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the third round in 2004, out
of high school in Sarasota, Florida. He was considered very toolsy but very
raw when drafted, showing excellent arm strength and good speed, but lacking
power and offensive polish. He hit .227/.272/.292 in 55 games of rookie ball
in the Gulf Coast League after signing, hardly impressive numbers although
organization officials praised his work ethic and physicality. He did steal 13
bases in 16 attempts. I didn't put him in the 2005 book but would have rated
him as a Grade C, with a high ceiling but needing to refine his tools.

Desmond是在2004年第三輪被蒙特婁博覽會選走，出身佛州 Sarasota
高中，他被選進時被認為工具掛滿身但非常生疏，臂力很強速度也不
錯，只是砲瓦與攻擊能力還是欠缺琢磨。簽約後他在 GCL新人聯盟55
場比賽只有.227/.272/.292，即使官方對他的工作態度跟身體素質頗
為讚賞，依然很難讓人記得的數字。另外16次盜壘嘗試成功13次。我
沒把他放進2005年的年刊，但我會評給他 C，高天花板不過還需要精
進他的工具。

The Expos became the Nationals in the 2005, and the organization braintrust
decided to push Desmond very quickly, skipping him past the New York-Penn
League and assigning him directly to full-season ball. He hit .247/.291/.334
in 73 games for Savannah in the Sally League, then .256/.325/.385 in 55 games
for Potomac in the Carolina League, after a very aggressive promotion.

2005年博覽會變成國民，智囊團決定加快 Desmond的養成進度，讓他
跳過短期聯盟NYPL直接進入完整球季。他在Sally League的Savannah
出賽73場，繳出了.247/.291/.334，接著上到1A Carolina League的
Potomac ，上升速度非常積極。

He made 35 errors, but scouts liked his range and arm strength. He also stole
33 bases in 45 attempts, and impressed the front office with his emotional
maturity. I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting his
age-relative-to-league, but also noting the necessity to sharpen his plate
discipline, given his 34/113 BB/K ratio in 515 at-bats.

雖然失誤35次，但球探很喜歡他的防守範圍與臂力，45次盜壘嘗試成
功33次，成熟的情緒管控也令制服組印象深刻。2006年刊我給他 C，
他還非常年輕但必需改進本壘板紀律， 515個打數裡BB/K是34/113。

Desmond began 2006 at Double-A Harrisburg, but he was overmatched and posted a
.184/.221/.232 mark in 38 games, also struggling with the glove. Sent back to
Potomac, he hit .244/.313/.384 in 92 games, similar to what he'd done in '05,
though he looked more comfortable defensively. I gave him another Grade C,
continuing to note his youth but also his lack of offensive progress.

2006年Desmond從2A Harrisburg開始，但他被強度壓垮了。38場比賽
只有.184/.221/.232，連防守也問題連連。下放 Potomac後92場比賽
.244/.313/.384，跟05年的表現很接近，而且守得更舒服。我又給他
一次 C，繼續標註他還年輕不過攻擊面依舊欠缺。

The Nationals gave Desmond some stability in 2007, letting him play 129 games
at Potomac. This resulted in an improved .264/.357/.432 mark, with 13 homers,
27 steals in 38 attempts, and a career high 57 walks. The Nationals made
adjustments to his swing, enabling him to quicken up on fastballs, and he also
did an improved job recognizing breaking balls. His defense remained solid.
Although this was his third season at Potomac, he was still just 21 years old.
I increased him to a Grade C+ in the 2008 book, noting the improvements and
projecting that if he maintained this progress, he could see the majors in 2009

2007年國民選擇穩穩地養 Desmond，讓他在Potomac打完129場。結果
顯示三圍拉升到.264/.357/.432，13轟，盜壘38次27次成功，生涯新
高57個保送。國民調整他的揮棒，使他面對速球時能更快反應，而且
識別變化球的能力也更好了。他的防守還是很棒。即使這是他第三個
Potomac 球季，他也還只有21歲。2008年刊我加到C+，標註如果他的
突出與進步維持這樣的進度，他有機會在09年上到大聯盟。

Returning to Harrisburg in 2008, Desmond hit .251/.318/.406 in 93 games, with
12 homers, 31 walks, and 12 steals in 20 attempts. His discipline slipped, but
it was certainly much better than his '08 Double-A trial. I did lower his grade
to a straight C in the 2009 book, expressing concern about if he'd hit enough
to start in the majors, but noting that he was still young and still had
development potential. i should have stuck with the Grade C+.

2008年 Desmond回到Harrisburg，93場比賽打出.251/.318/.406，12
轟，31保送，盜壘20次嘗試12次成功。選球退步了，不過依然比06年
好。2009年刊我把他稍微降到 C，我會關心他的打擊能不能好到站穩
大聯盟先發，但還是標註他年輕且還有天份沒磨出來。我應該繼續維
持C+才對。

Desmond began '09 at Harrisburg again, hitting .302/.372/.494 in 42 games.
Promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, he remained hot with a .354/.428/.461 mark in
55 games, giving him a combined total of .330/.401/.477 on the season, with 21
steals in 26 attempts. Promoted to the majors, he hit .280/.318/.561 in 21
games, 82 at-bats. This was the first time his performance truly matched his
potential.

2009年他繼續在Harrisburg開始，42場比賽的三圍.302/.372/.494。
升到 3A Syracuse後，55場比賽依舊是火燙的.354/.428/.461。當年
在小聯盟合算.330/.401/.477，盜壘26次嘗試21次成功。晉升至大聯
盟後的21場比賽82個打數.280/.318/.561，這是他第一次確切發揮自
己的潛力。

I gave Desmond a Grade C+ in the 2010 book, writing that "I think he made real
progress" but that he could use more consolidation time in Triple-A to cut down
on routine errors and put the finishing touches on his plate discipline. My
thinking was that he could be a ".260 hitter with pop." In retrospect, I should
have gone with a B-.

2010年刊我給 Desmond評比C+，寫到＂我想他真的有很大的進步＂。
只不過他還需要在3A磨更多時間以減少低級失誤，以及於最後再加強
本壘板紀律。我想他能成為＂打擊率.260的打者並帶有砲瓦＂。回想
起來，我應該給他B-才對。

As you know, he didn't get more time in Triple-A and it doesn't look like he
really needed it. Desmond hit .269/.308/.392 with 10 homers and 17 steals in
2010, with some poor plate discipline but showing those amazing tools
frequently enough. He slipped with the bat in '11 (.253/.298/.358), but broke
out last season (wRC+128) and has maintained the pace this year (wRC+126). His
power has really blossomed, he's a 20-steal guy, and he's improved his
defensive reliability without sacrificing range.

就像你知道的，他沒在3A得到更多時間，而且看來也不需要。2010年
Desmond 打出.269/.308/.392，10轟，17次盜壘成功。本壘板紀律還
是略嫌可悲，但他已經將自己了不起的工具發揮得夠好了。2011年三
圍稍微下降到.253/.298/.358，去年則整個大爆發， wRC+128；今年
達到一樣的水準， wRC+126。砲瓦徹底炸開，同時具備20盜的能力，
防守面就算不靠犧牲守備範圍也有進步。

The Sim Score comp list through age 26 has some good names but some problematic
ones as well: Orlando Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Khalil Greene, Miguel Tejada,
Neifi Perez, Jeff Blauser, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brandon Phillips, Robby
Thompson. Neifi doesn't really fit as a comp and his spot on that list is due
to Colorado distortion. I don't see a Khalil Greeneish collapse on the horizon,
and Ian is way better than Yuniesky. I particularly like the Jeff Blauser and
Brandon Phillips comps and I think those fit well.

以26歲為條件透過Sim Score列出一個比較表：
Orlando Cabrera，Stephen Drew，Khalil Greene      ，Miguel Tejada，
Neifi Perez    ，Jeff Blauser，Yuniesky Betancourt，Brandon Phillips，
Robby Thompson。
這些都是好手但同時也都有些問題。 Neifi並不是那麼適合拿來做比
較而他在表上的位置也失真了。我不認為Desmond會像Khalil Greene
那樣突然從地平線上消失，而且他比Yuniesky更好。我特別喜歡Jeff
Blauser 與Brandon Phillips的比較表，用這兩個人比更合適。

Desmond may never hit .300 and his lack of patience still hinders him at times,
but you can't really complain about a 20/20 shortstop who can field his
position. I wish I'd given Desmond higher grades. The tools were always here
and he figured out how to use them. The guy can play.

Desmond 的打擊率也許永遠到不了.300，缺乏耐心也依然不時會阻撓
他。但你真的不能對一個 20/20又能防守的游擊手有什麼抱怨。我希
望自己有給過 Desmond更高的分數。工具永遠都在而他找出運用的方
法，這小子真的能打。

Prospect Retrospective這個專題,
是John Sickels寫來回顧他過去給這些明星選手的評分.
他從沒給Desmond高過C+的原因也很簡單,
就是小聯盟時期Desmond沒把自己的優勢徹底發揮出來,
加上糟糕的本壘板紀律.
現在Desmond的選球還是不好,
但起碼砲瓦噴出來了.
目前國民農場最好的野手Goodwin也是滿滿的工具,
也很年輕而且潛能比Desmond更強,
22歲時Goodwin跟Desmond同樣待在2A,
Goodwin的成績也比第二次上2A的Desmond更出色一些.
以現階段狀況國民兩年之內都不會需要Goodwin上MLB,
他的養成還是很值得期待的.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 220.133.12.197
推 evilvens:
推 ddtddt:Desy~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~and Espy~~~~  說好的 20 20
推 ug945:血統純正的游擊砲 不留嗎
推 ps20012001:可是防守始終....
推 evilvens:防守怎? Desmond的問題只在失誤多了點 但其他都很不錯
推 evilvens:BR的dWAR或是FG的Def數值連3年都是正的
推 ps20012001:是真的可以而已....在守備超過50場的人選裡 排名倒數
→ ps20012001:這三年都是0.X上下跳
推 ps20012001:然後 超過100場守備的 排第17..所以真的算中位值
推 s9527206:樓上可以告訴我怎麼查的嗎? 我一直在找BR有沒有跟FG一樣
→ s9527206:有歷年/同位置各球員直接排名的功能，不過一直沒找到 XD
→ s9527206:另外回一下，UZR 給 Desy 的守備評價倒是蠻高的
→ s9527206:尤其Desy是真的能打，我想即使他防守只有普通水準還是OK
推 evilvens:2013的Def全聯盟SS排第8，2012的Def全聯盟SS排第9
→ evilvens:2011的Def全聯盟SS排第12 這樣有很差嗎? 再說他還有棒子
推 ps20012001:我是進ESPN的官網看的   題外話 別再換標準了..orz...
→ ps20012001:http://espn.go.com/ 有把一些數據 做上簡單的排列
→ ps20012001:也不是說他很差..就是 提到他的長處 不會去看防守
→ vg175:Desi守備跟Simmons一樣好的話我們就劉福助了 現在還有機會