作者BradPitt (Lightning Strike--I Lov)
看板Option
標題[心得] 辭掉正職工作，專職做期貨？
時間Mon Nov 5 23:46:16 2012
這篇國外的文章，我覺得挺有道理的
原來不只住在台灣的我們有這樣的兩難，外國人也常討論這樣的議題
轉寄給看得懂得人看看吧！
我就不翻譯了...
文章是來自
http://www.traderplanet.com/newsletter-articles/view/8600/distribution:8/
When To Quit Your Day Job by Jim Wyckoff
I have had many readers through the years--most of whom were
less-experienced traders--tell me that at some point in the future
they planned to quit their day jobs and trade futures full-time.
While their optimism was certainly positive from the standpoint
of eagerness to learn about a truly fascinating business, it is
also probably unrealistic that they will ever make a good living as
a full-time futures trader. At the end of this feature I have a
few questions that may help determine if you are ready to attempt
to join the elusive rank of "full-time" trader. But first, I want
to present you with some straight facts.
I have been in this business nearly 20 years. I have read stacks
of trading books and have voraciously studied markets and market
behavior. I have worked right on the trading floors of all the major
futures exchanges. As a journalist, I have conducted countless
interviews with the very best traders and analysts in the world.
But I still cannot specifically predict what a given market will do
in the future.
Now, at this point a few of you may be thinking, "This is not
very encouraging news. Maybe I should listen to some of those other
guys that say I can have immediate trading success by learning their
'secrets' or adopting their 'proven' system or strategies?" While I
hope this is not the case with you, I am very proud of the fact that
I have made my reputation in this industry by refusing to be marketed
and promoted (hyped) as something I am not, nor can ever be.
It's very important to realize the fact that neither I nor anyone
else--not even the most powerful computer trading systems--can predict
what the markets will do in the future. Markets will never be tamed.
I've said many times that my profession is not a business of market
predictions, but one of exploring market probabilities, based upon
fundamental and technical analysis--and human behavior. By exploring
and understanding market probabilities, and human nature, one can
achieve trading success.
Many traders are lured by fast-talkers or fancy wording into
thinking that someone or some firm has a sure-fire trading "secret"
or system that beats the markets on a consistent basis--and racks up
big trading profits in the process. But the truth is, most of these
claims are half-truths at best and downright lies at worst--and come
from people who are out to take your money. I tell my readers right
up front that I have no "trading secrets" and that achieving futures
trading success is not easy and takes hard work. And even hard work
does not guarantee futures trading success. Unfortunately for many
traders, it takes the pain of losing substantial amounts of money
early on before they finally realize what I stress to my readers
right away.
Okay, enough preaching from me.
What are some clues that you could be one of the fortunate few
that actually could succeed at being a full-time trader? I'll get
some questions for you shortly, but first I want to address an issue
about which you may be pondering right now. That is: Jim, why don't
you only trade futures full-time if you are so knowledgeable?
I have never attempted to be a full-time futures trader. By
"full-time" I mean focusing only on trading futures and using the
realized profits for my living expenses. In my case, that would
mean no analytical service, no custom consulting, no educational
writing--all of which I'm doing now. Since I have never tried to
make a living only by trading futures, I cannot tell you whether
I would be successful or not. The reason I have never attempted to
trade futures full-time is because I truly enjoy the communications
aspect of being a market analyst and a trading educator and mentor.
I hope that those of you who have talked with me or emailed me would
agree that I do really enjoy discussing markets with other traders.
I do know that if I were to attempt to be a "full-time" futures trader,
the task would not be easy, even though I do have much experience and
knowledge.
Now, on to a few questions to ask yourself if you think you might
be ready to trade futures full-time:
‧1 Are you a successful part-time trader? You'll need to be
successful at trading futures on a part-time basis before you
think about moving into the full-time trader ranks. Don't be
fooled into thinking that trading futures on a full-time basis
will allow you to spend more time to cure your part-time trading
ailments. In other words, don't say to yourself: "If only I
could spend more time trading markets, I could have more success
than I've had just trading 'one-lots' here and there."
‧2 Do you have enough money available to live on when (yes when,
not if) you hit a streak of losing trades? A losing streak will
inevitably occur--and probably sooner rather than later. And I
don't mean a losing streak of two weeks, but
‧3 Do you have the psychological stamina to be a full-time futures
trader? Quite frankly, most people do not. Can your psyche (not
to mention your pocket book) handle six months of mostly losing
trades?
‧4 Will your immediate family members support you--even during a
prolonged rough stretch of trading? Believe it or not, this is
a very, very important question. For example, if your spouse
does not support your decision to trade full-time, then you are
likely doomed to failure. The pressure of having to produce
winning trades and knowing that your spouse is skeptical of your
efforts is almost insurmountable.
‧5 And on your part, will you be able to uphold your family or other
important responsibilities even during a rough trading stretch?
Or, will you brood and kick the dog when he happens to cross your
path?
I think you'll agree with me that those are tough questions to answer.
One more thing: I do have many readers that are "full-time traders"
but who do fall into a different category than what I described above.
These are people who do have enough money to trade futures on a full-time
basis--even if their trading profits alone will not support their
lifestyles. These are individuals who already have significant amounts
of money derived from means other than trading futures. Also, I have many
readers who are now full-time traders, and that have retired from another
profession and want to spend the "autumn of their lives" not in a rocking
chair, but in a field that is challenging to them. Again, they, too, have
other means of income besides just futures trading profits.
__________________________________________________________________________
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全儒全碩是全賢
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◆ From: 220.135.189.104
推 cobrasgo:沒那個屁股但愛吃那個瀉藥的人，世上到處都是 11/05 23:57
推 dogbydog:U姊那個就算是能預測的系統了吧 11/06 01:06
→ les5277:300萬 房子 自己的系統 OK 11/06 01:30
→ ilsr:能在家或自營獲利的人, 還做其它工作幹嘛? 11/06 06:21
推 zjbybp:版上就很多這種高手呀 但有更多.. 11/06 08:37
→ hagousla:工作可以交朋友啊~ 11/06 10:03
推 UltraSeven:我的系統不能預測啊 我只是都先入為主把盤勢當成震盪 11/06 10:09
→ UltraSeven:等真的被噴再想辦法凹單或是用最大停損解決而已 11/06 10:10
推 femlro:國外不一樣 很多商品可以交易= = 11/06 11:38
→ femlro:不過輸錢也很多就是 11/06 11:39
推 berryc:不能鼓勵,因為人人都這樣想 基層工程沒人做,國家必亡 11/06 11:51
→ berryc:但在這資本社會,想翻身 如果有本事賺錢,當然不必浪費時間 11/06 11:52
→ berryc:去領人薪水看人臉色 11/06 11:52
推 ainor:這有什麼兩難的，會賺就辭，不會賺或搞不清楚的就待者 11/06 12:37
→ TouSan:推berryc.. 所以我覺得3A出來教人投資.不太好.. 11/06 12:47
推 cobrasgo:沒什麼不好的。1) 你看了又不見得學的會 2) 你要用3A的方 11/06 12:54
→ cobrasgo:法來玩，本金要夠厚。除了二世祖之外還是要工作賺本金 11/06 12:55
推 cobrasgo:總比那些本金幾十萬就妄想用交易過活的人好多了 11/06 12:58
推 rupcj8:是阿 有3A資金的人 基本上也不會是做基層工程的人 so... 11/06 13:19
→ rupcj8:一般基層人員的本金不足以用3a的方法來過活啦 所以教也沒差 11/06 13:20
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推 pucca068:那種報籌率也要學.......頭殼壞了馬....... 11/06 14:37
推 Ting1024:一千萬滿基本的阿。要做點事情這總是基本額度嘛！ 11/06 19:21
推 MarketWizard:這篇文該m起來... 11/07 08:52