http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2009/09/taiwan-has-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate.html
The Population Reference Bureau put out a report that garnered some attention
in Taiwan today. It observes of the island's Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
Asia is projected to add the most people by mid-century, with an increase
of 1.3 billion over its 2009 population of 4 billion. This population growth
is anticipated despite substantial declines in birth rates in many Asian
countries. Today, China and India account for nearly two-thirds of the region
’s population, and in 2050 their share will only be slightly less. But it
will be India that will grow substantially by 2050. China’s population size
will decline well before 2050 if current projections hold true. Should China
change its “one-child” policy, a different picture could emerge.
Asia is also home to several other countries with very low TFRs. Taiwan
currently has the world’s lowest, at 1.0 children per woman, while South
Korea has a TFR of 1.2. These countries have expressed concern over
population decline and extreme aging in their societies. In Japan, the
official population projection anticipates that 40 percent of the population
could be 65 and older by 2050.
India to overtake China, too. A planet full of primate breeders, as if the
world had no physical limits. A powerpoint presentation on population trends
is also available, more focused on the US. The data sheet is here, note the
geographic distribution of child poverty rates in the US (Red States, of
course). According to their data, Taiwan's net rate of increase is just 0.2%,
and it is expected the island's population will be 2 million less in 2050 if
current trends continue. Of course, they will all be crowded on the tip of
Yushan since the island will be underwater at that point....
Speaking more seriously, one wonders if this plummeting fertility rate
represents the population bumping up against the limits of the local strategy
of educating the heck out of their children, a strategy that has become
increasingly expensive, perhaps too expensive to sustain. Or is it the fact
that so many women are choosing not to get married, or to get married very
late and have very few children? Or what? Inquiring minds want to know...
Kudos to PRB: none of this "Taiwan, province of China" bullshit.
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