作者jeromee ( 迷途小書僮)
看板PHX-Suns
標題[外電] ESPN：Future Power Rankings-Suns
時間Thu Nov 12 01:36:26 2009
前言：
這是一篇這幾天剛出來卻已引起諸多迴響之文章，主要討論各隊未來三年的實力高低，屬
於預測性質的文章，由鼎鼎大名的Chad Ford and John Hollinger共同編寫，可惜台灣尚
未有人討論，而大陸論壇亦只有英文原文尚無翻譯。
故本人先行翻譯，在版上人氣正旺之同時，希冀能起拋磚引玉之效，以期更多太陽版友參
與討論。（同樣的話我在人氣最低迷也說過）
要注意的是，所有30支球隊都有介紹，有興趣者可以自行搜尋文章（這是要付費的文章，
在美國可能不可直接po上網）。當然我是太陽球迷，僅翻譯太陽部分
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ESPN：Future Power Rankings 未來實力排行榜
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court
success expected for each team during the 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13
seasons.
ESPN此未來實力排行榜乃是預估每一支球隊在2010-11, 2011-12 和 2012-13三個球季間
的表現好壞。
Consider this a convenient way to see in what direction your favorite team is
headed.
這可以讓你方便的了解，你喜歡的球隊應該要加強的方向。
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to
1,000, based on how well we expected each team to perform in the three
seasons following this season.
每一支球隊都會得到一個介於0~1000的分數，此分數之高低反應我們預期此球隊未來三年
的成績優劣。
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories
(see table at right).
How Future Power Rating Is Determined
我們以五個項目來評估球隊的未來實力。
讓我們看看球隊未來實力分數是如何決定的。
PLAYERS (0 to 400 points): Current players and their potential for the
future, factoring in expected departures
球員（比重0~400分）：
以現行球員陣容實力高低，以及球員的未來潛力為預估基準，同時將球員離隊與否的因素
一併考慮進來。
MANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office,
ownership, coaching
管理階層（比重0~200分）：
評估標準包括了制服組、球隊老闆、教練群的特質以及人事穩定性。
MONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and
willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury tax
財務狀況（比重0~200分）：
評估標準包括了球隊的薪資狀況與空間、支付高額薪資的能力以及負擔豪華稅的意願。
MARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions, based on team
quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market
size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fans
球隊市場（比重0~100分）
以球隊特色、經營聲譽，還有城市的利基點如市場大小、稅率、球場品質、球迷熱情程度
為準。
DRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioning
選秀（比重0~100分）：
未來選秀權的數目以及順位高低。
As you can see, we determined that the most important category was a team's
current players and the future potential of those players -- that category
accounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
如你所見，整個評估過程中，最重要的項目就是現行球員的天分與潛力－佔了40％的比重
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management,
ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the
reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we
expected the team to have in the future.
同時我們也考慮了其他因素，如管理能力、執教能力，球隊簽約與支付薪資的習慣、薪資
空間，城市的名聲與經營團隊的信譽，連未來的選秀狀態我們亦一併考慮。
To reach our ratings in each category, we talked to teams to get a handle on
their future strategies, we looked at their contractual commitments and we
carefully broke down each roster to figure out which players would improve,
which would decline and which would likely depart.
為了能落實我們關於每一項目的評比，我們透過訪談去掌握每支球隊對於未來的藍圖，
我們查閱球員的合約內容，細心地解構每一球隊的陣容，進而評估出哪些球員的程度未來
會有所提升，哪些球員會有所退步，以及哪些球員有可能會離隊。
We expect these rankings to evolve as the season moves along, trades are
made, injuries occur, strategies shift, and so on. Return from time to time
as we update the rankings.
隨著球員交易，傷病的來襲，球隊策略的變化等諸如此類的事發生，我們預期這份榜單將
會隨賽季的進行而不斷有所變動。
請不時地回來關注我們更新的結果。
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27.Phoenix Suns | Future Power Rating: 365
鳳凰城太陽，未來實力評分365，排名27。
PLAYERS 112 (26th) （Nash、Hill、綠茶都被看扁了）
MANAGEMENT 56 (25th) （Kerr+Sarver）
MONEY 94 (16th) （比我想像的要高）
MARKET 69 (5th) （鳳凰城是全美大城之一）
DRAFT 35 (24th) （2010沒有第一輪選秀）
Of all the teams we ranked, the Suns were the ones that caused the biggest
double-take between us. The Suns have the 27th-brightest future? Really?
在我們所有已經評比的隊伍中，太陽是我倆看法最分歧的球隊之一。太陽竟然未來充滿黑
暗，真的嗎？
Isn't this the team that led the mighty Western Conference in 2008? Aren't
they once again leading the West at the moment? Don't they still have
superstars Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire? Are things really so bad?
這支球隊不是在2008年還是西區強權嗎？他們現在不是正在西區領先嗎？他們不是有全明
星Nash和Stoudemire嗎？他們真的這麼差嗎？
Yeah, things are bad.
是的，他們未來就是這麼糟。
Let's go right to the roster that's been one of the NBA's best for the past
five seasons. For starters, Nash and Stoudemire have big asterisks next to
their names. Nash turns 36 in February and Stoudemire, coming off serious eye
surgery, can be an unrestricted free agent next summer. The rest of their
core includes 37-year-old Grant Hill, Jason Richardson (29 in January) and
sixth man Leandro Barbosa (already 27 later this month). Youngsters Earl
Clark and Robin Lopez have potential but so far are role players at best.
讓我們馬上先從過去五年聯盟最好的陣容之一開始談起，在先發陣容中，Nash和
Stoudemire在他們全明星的名氣背後都有很多值得注意的問題。
Nash在二月就已經36歲，而暑假將變成完全自由球員的Stoudemire又剛經歷過了眼部手術
。餘下的核心陣容包含了已經37歲的Hill，一月滿29歲的Richardson，以及這個月即將滿
27歲的第六人Barbosa。
年輕新秀Clark 和 Lopez雖有潛力，但目前為止頂多擔任角色球員，尚無法擔當大任。
While owner Robert Sarver has shown a willingness to spend at times during
his confusing tenure, the signs in that department are discouraging as well.
Lately the Suns have looked to cut costs, and in doing so have shipped out
both Shawn Marion and Shaquille O'Neal while shopping Stoudemire. (That's not
to mention their maddening policy of selling draft picks rather than
restocking with young, inexpensive talent.) All in all, the Sarver
administration has squandered an opportunity to make the Suns the league's
marquee franchise and instead made them a team trying to avoid a second
straight appearance in the lottery.
儘管Sarver在他令人難以理解其作為的任期中，有時也會願意花錢補強陣容，但球隊無
好轉的跡象一樣令人沮喪。
近來太陽致力縮減經費，已送走了Marion和O'Neal，並到處兜售Stoudemire。詭異的是，
他們寧願瘋狂地賣出他們的選秀權，而不願保留選秀權來獲取年輕且便宜的潛力新秀。
總之，在Sarver掌權之下，太陽已經失去成為聯盟招牌球隊的機會，太陽轉而變成一支只
求進入季後賽，以避免連續兩年都在樂透同樂會中露臉的邊緣球隊。
Steve Kerr's tenure has been noteworthy mostly for his shocking and
semi-disastrous acquisition of Shaq, though he has since reversed course and
reconstructed a running team. And the departure of Mike D'Antoni further
hurts the Suns' score in the management category, even if Alvin Gentry has
succeeded in restoring the Suns' speed game.
在Kerr的總管任期中，最值得注意的就是引進球風不合歐鯊而造成球隊傷害的驚人之舉。
雖然他已經修正他的錯誤並重新打造一支跑轟球隊，但對球隊的傷害早已經產生了。
即使Gentry成功的回復太陽原有的跑轟風格，但與D'Antoni的分道揚鑣仍進一步降低太陽
在球隊管理的評分。
The draft won't help either, at least in the short term: Oklahoma City owns
the Suns' 2010 first-round pick.
至少在近期之內選秀也幫不了他們，因為雷霆有太陽的2010第一輪選秀權。
The bright side for the Suns is that players have shown a lot of interest in
playing in Phoenix in the past, and the Suns will have some salary-cap space
in 2011 if they don't re-sign Stoudemire. But most signs at the moment point
to Sarver putting the savings into his pocket, not his roster.
對太陽來說，他們的優勢在於從以前到現在仍然有不少球員願意到鳳凰城打球，而且2011
年他們不與阿罵續約的話，也會有一些薪資空間。
但現今大多數的跡象指出，要Sarver掏錢補強陣容跟要Sarver的命一樣。
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註：
（1）低調點，好好打，不要被看扁了。
（2）Sarver「威名」震聯盟。
（3）這份排名先天對我們不利，年齡佔了很大因素。請大家以平常心看待。
（4）完整的全部排名如下：
1. Portland Trailblazers
2. Orlando Magic
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Miami Heat
6. Utah Jazz
7. Chicago Bulls
8. San Antonio Spurs
9. Cleveland Cavaliers
10. Denver Nuggets
11. Los Angeles Clippers
12. Boston Celtics
13. New Jersey Nets
14. Houston Rockets
15. Detroit Pistons
16. Toronto Raptors
17. Dallas Mavericks
18. Atlanta Hawks
19. Philadelphia 76ers
20. Indiana Pacers
21. New York Knicks
22. Minnesota Timberwolves
23. New Orleans Hornets
24. Washington Wizards
25. Memphis Grizzlies
26. Golden State Warriors
27. Phoenix Suns
28. Sacramento Kings
29. Milwaukee Bucks
30. Charlotte Bobcats
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 124.12.81.195
※ 編輯: jeromee 來自: 124.12.81.195 (11/12 01:37)
※ 編輯: jeromee 來自: 124.12.81.195 (11/12 01:42)
推 guitarist326:所以今年低調好~地掉能贏 鋒助他們的嘴XD 11/12 01:42
推 kulama :不過其實他們討論的東西是下個球季以後的事 11/12 01:43
推 BrentRoy :雷霆那個首輪...( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ 11/12 01:45
→ kulama :我覺得預測這麼遠的事情太難了，專家也一樣。 11/12 01:45
推 andy1203 :好文推~不過名次也太後面了點~顛覆這些論點!! 11/12 01:45
推 wencia :是沒錯,但運氣也蠻重要的,總是會看走眼的時候 11/12 01:46
→ kulama :要一年後翻這篇出來戰恐怕也沒人這麼無聊。 11/12 01:47
推 BrentRoy :照他們的算法 年齡劣勢跟選秀還有老闆總管 得分低是 11/12 01:47
→ kulama :但是寫準了，就可能會有人注意到了。 11/12 01:47
→ BrentRoy :必然的 但是不代表實力低 11/12 01:48
→ BrentRoy :且他們也沒考慮到太陽明年不算阿罵在內 總薪資只有 11/12 01:48
※ 編輯: jeromee 來自: 124.12.81.195 (11/12 01:50)
→ BrentRoy :35M上下 選秀失利 自由市場補強還是大有可為 11/12 01:49
→ kulama :其實我已經可以預測到這份一定超不準了。 11/12 01:49
→ kulama :光是明年一堆大咖洗牌，球隊消長會很大。 11/12 01:50
→ kulama :這種事，算得到恐怕只有能夠夜觀天象之神人。 11/12 01:51
推 sperm69 :這種事 算得到 大概莫屬於 台灣電視名嘴吧 我相信他 11/12 01:52
→ sperm69 :們可以的 11/12 01:52
推 BrentRoy :We expect these rankings to evolve as the season 11/12 01:52
→ BrentRoy :對原PO抱歉 可是這一行附註讓我笑了 XD 11/12 01:52
→ sperm69 :樓下幫低調XDDD 11/12 01:53
推 mixlatea :推 11/12 02:11
推 ericshay :某些程度上，這份資料我認為是可參考的 11/12 02:14
→ ericshay :最好是讓Sarver看一下這份東西，讓他知道自己有多XX 11/12 02:15
推 kulama :拿去給Sarver看我支持XD 據說他很容易被激怒... 11/12 02:18
→ kulama :說不定一氣之下就把球隊賣了或者賭氣闊氣簽球員 11/12 02:18
→ kulama :怎麼算都不虧啊XD 11/12 02:19
推 calf3300126 :越不被看好我越爽XD 太陽低調低調.. 11/12 02:41
推 mea7211 :基本上算得到明年就很了不起了 11/12 02:41
→ mea7211 :本季的基本態度就是即時行樂 能爽的時候就要盡情爽 11/12 02:42
→ mea7211 :即使最後又打不進季後賽 也只是回歸到季初的不期不待 11/12 02:43
推 godispower :現在..只怕那賭海的明燈..冥燈.. 糗爺啊.. 11/12 02:49
※ 編輯: jeromee 來自: 124.12.81.195 (11/12 06:50)
推 jjoonnyy :整篇寫那麼多 一個選秀樂透 排名就改變很多了 11/12 07:52
推 Jacobsen :阿有錢簽自由大咖都不用算進去的喔= = 11/12 09:29
推 thegod13 :長期預報準確性很難說 搞不好連老板都換了也說不定 11/12 11:15
推 thegod13 :他預報的方法應該是用現行數據直接推演兩三年 11/12 11:18
→ thegod13 :可是他預報的理論結構也太不完善了吧 11/12 11:19
→ thegod13 :科科就算** 我想交易的結果是與其他球隊利害相關的 11/12 11:21
推 thegod13 :忘了推外電 這篇外電閱讀要錢? 感謝分享! 11/12 11:25
※ 編輯: jeromee 來自: 124.12.81.195 (11/18 09:22)