Fw: [外絮] The top 10 restricted free agents

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※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1Fro3X2J ]

作者: cody7052 (Sunrise) 看板: NBA
標題: [外絮] The top 10 restricted free agents
時間: Tue Jun 12 18:58:37 2012


來源:

http://ppt.cc/JvNn


內容:

The top 10 restricted free agents

十大受限自由球員 (包含林書豪在內)

By Chris Bernucca


Today,
we look at the top 10 restricted free agents, which is a little trickier.

By and large, restricted free agents are all on their rookie contract,
which provides guaranteed money that can establish the starting point
for negotiations.

And that’s where it gets tricky.

JaVale McGee made $2.46 million this season
and has a qualifying offer for $3.49 million next season.

Both figures are well below what starting centers receive.
But how high do the Denver Nuggets go to keep him?


Do the Nuggets offer McGee the $60 million over five years
that Chicago gave Joakim Noah?

Or do they offer an equivalent to the $8.3 million annually
given to Anderson Varejao?

Or do they let another team set the market,
then decide whether or not to match?


今天，我們來看看10大受限自由球員，這稍微更複雜一些。


由於大多數受限制自由球員都還處在他們的新秀合約中，

他們的薪水是受保障的，這會建立談判的起點。


正是如此，情況才會更加複雜。


JaVale McGee 本賽季的薪水是246萬美元，

他下個賽季能夠得到349萬美元的報價。

這兩個數字都比一個先發中鋒的薪水要低。


但是丹佛金塊隊願意花多少來留下他呢？


丹佛金塊隊會給 JaVale McGee 提供

像芝加哥公牛隊給 Joakim Noah 的5年6000萬那樣的合約嗎？

還是會給他等同於 Anderson Varejao 每年約830萬的薪水？


還是會讓其他的球隊提供報價，然後決定是否支付相同報價嗎？


McGee is just 24 and has displayed both erratic play and behavior,
which also is a factor when investing in your team’s future.

No one wants to give $50 million to a knucklehead.

Many of these guys should remain with their current teams,
who can give them more money and exceed the cap to retain them.

But you never know when a team with cap room
that is desperate to improve will overpay to get the player they want.

Here is a rundown on the top 10, with five more to watch.


JaVale McGee 才24歲，他顯示了自己不穩定的比賽和表現，

而這一點正是球隊在投資未來時需要考慮的因素。


沒人會想把5000萬花在一個“蠢蛋”身上。


很多這些受限制球員會留在他們現在的球隊中，

因為球隊會給他們更多的薪資並超過工資帽來留下他們。


但是你永遠也不知道一支工資帽急需提升的隊伍是否願意花大價錢留下他們想要的球員。


這裡是10大球員的名單，另外還有5個有待觀察的球員。


1. Eric Gordon :

You have to love his spirit, coming back to play seven games in a lost season
when he could have tapped out and showing flashes of the 22.3 points
he averaged a season ago with the Clippers.

But he has missed 100-plus games over the last three years
and still knows very little about winning in the NBA
— although he was a key player for Team USA at the 2010 World Championship,
beating out Stephen Curry as the team’s go-to shooter.

DESTINATION:

Having the top pick certainly helps the Hornets,
who have said they want another team to set the market for Gordon.

That could be dangerous with about a half-dozen teams interested,
including the Pacers in his home state of Indiana.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $50 million.


1. Eric Gordon：

你必須欣賞他的奮戰精神。

他大可以作壁上觀，並且告訴人們他一年前在快艇每場平均得到22.3分。

但是他在一個失敗的賽季末端回歸並出戰了7場比賽。


但是他在過去的三年內缺席了超過100場比賽，並且對如何在NBA獲勝知之甚少－－

即使他在2010世錦賽上的美國隊中作用關鍵，擊敗 Stephen Curry 成為球隊的投籃首選。


未來去向預測：

雖然狀元簽會給黃蜂帶來巨大幫助，

黃蜂說過要讓其他球隊來報價 Eric Gordon 。


這很危險，因為大概有6支球隊會對他感興趣，

包括 Eric Gordon 家鄉:印第安納溜馬隊。


合適的價格：4年5000萬。


2. Ryan Anderson :

The NBA’s Most Improved Player (even though he wasn’t)
isn’t going to be a part of any Dwight Howard trade
because he is the only young stud the Magic have.

His offensive effectiveness was greatly enhanced by Howard’s presence,
so Orlando’s GM – whomever that ends up being –
has to be smart about what pieces he puts around Anderson.

DESTINATION: Hard to see him going anywhere else.

THE RIGHT PRICE:

Four years, $45 million. The Magic cannot max him out,
because it will set the market for other good
but not great players on their roster.

2. Ryan Anderson：

本年度的聯盟最佳進步獎得主（雖然他並不是進步最快的）

不會被捲入到 Dwight Howard 的交易中去，因為他是魔術隊僅剩的年輕猛男了。


他的進攻影響力在 Dwight Howard 在場的時候得到了極大的提升。

所以，魔術的總經理－－不論誰擔任此職務－－都必須好好考慮Ryan Anderson值多少錢。


未來去向預測：很可能留在魔術。


合適的價格：4年4500萬。

魔術不會給他頂薪，因為這會讓球隊其他夠好但不算頂尖的球員漫天要價。


3. Nicolas Batum:

He was a reserve when unsuccessfully negotiating an extension,
and there was some bad blood.

His agent said, “The Blazers had their chance.”

But Portland traded Gerald Wallace,
elevating Batum to starter status and perhaps bridging the gap
between the sides – as long as Batum’s camp isn’t holding a grudge.

He had career highs in scoring,
rebounding and 3-point shooting and is just 23 and incredibly athletic.

DESTINATION: So much depends on the initial tone in negotiations.
If it sours, Batum could end up in Charlotte or Phoenix,
both of which have cap room and a hole at small forward.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $40 million.
                 Batum has upside, but not max player upside.


3. Nicolas Batum：

他在商討延長合約失敗後被留了下來，這會有不好的影響。

他的經紀人說：“拓荒者有過一次機會了。”


但是拓荒者交易了 Gerald Wallace ，並且把 Nicolas Batum 升到了先發。

這也許能彌補雙方的感情裂痕－－只要 Nicolas Batum 方面不懷恨在心。


他這賽季得到了生涯新高的得分，籃板和三分球命中數，

而且他只有23歲，擁有卓越的身體素質。


未來去向預測：

這取決於他和球隊的初期交涉。

如果球隊搞砸了， Nicolas Batum 很可能去夏洛特山貓隊或者鳳凰城太陽隊，

這兩支隊伍都有薪資空間，並且急需一名小前鋒。


合適的價格：4年4000萬。 Nicolas Batum 有上限，但不是頂薪上限。


4. Roy Hibbert:

He came into his own this season, becoming an All-Star,
raising his defensive numbers and showing his ability to impact playoff games.

Before the Pacers address needs in free agency or talk to George Hill,
they need to lock up Hibbert to keep moving up the title contention ladder.

DESTINATION:

Hibbert is not going anywhere.

The Pacers might allow another team in need of a center to set the market,
then match the offer.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $50 million.
He is not a max center – not yet, anyway – but probably will get the max.

4. Roy Hibbert：

他本賽季成為了全明星，提升了他防守端的數據，並前顯示出在季後賽的衝擊力。

溜馬隊進入自由市場涉獵和搞定 George Hill 之前，

他們需要留下 Roy Hibbert 來繼續向冠軍發起衝擊。


未來去向預測： Roy Hibbert 哪也不會去。

溜馬隊可能會讓其他需要中鋒的球隊來提供報價，然後支付相同報價。


合適的價格：4年5000萬。

他不是個頂級中鋒－－目前還不是－－但是他可能會成為頂級中鋒。


5. Javale McGee:

Nuggets coach George Karl compared him to Connie Hawkins,
probably not the best thing to do
when your GM is about to negotiate a contract with McGee’s agent.

Yes, McGee is the long-term answer in the pivot.

But he averaged just 21 minutes per game after the trade in
which Denver gave up Nene, can’t make free throws
and still has way too many lapses in judgment both off and on the court.

DESTINATION:

What if Rockets GM Daryl Morey – who chased Marc Gasol last offseason –
renounces Marcus Camby, doesn’t pick up the option on Samuel Dalembert
and makes a max run at McGee?

Can the Nuggets afford not to match? Probably not.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $36 million.
But he will get more, deservedly or not.
Centers get overpaid in the Association.


5. Javale McGee：

金塊隊主帥 George Karl 把 Javale McGee 比作是 Connie Hawkins，

這在總經理和 Javale McGee 經紀人討價還價的時候並不是個明智的舉措。


是的， Javale McGee 是球隊中鋒位置上長期的答案。


但是，他在被交易來後每場平均只有21分鐘的出場時間，

並且他罰球命中率糟糕，人們對他在場上和場下的評價褒貶不一。


未來去向預測：

如果火箭的GM Daryl Morey－－他去年欲追逐 Marc Gasol 失利－－

放棄了 Marcus Camby ，沒有執行 Samuel Dalembert 的合約選項，

給 Javale McGee 提供了一份長期的大合約會怎樣？


金塊隊能夠忍痛不支付相同報價麼？可能不會吧。


合適的價格：

4年3600萬。


不過無論他是否值這個價，他會得到更高的報價。

現在聯盟的中鋒們都會得到偏高的報價。


6. O.J. MAYO:

Because he was such a high draft pick,
Mayo already makes starter money ($7.4 million qualifying offer)
but has been a reserve for two seasons.

In that time, the Grizzlies have backed up the Brinks truck for Mike Conley,
Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol and have $50 million-plus committed to
that trio plus Rudy Gay through 2015.

It is highly possible that Memphis could turn Mayo loose.

DESTINATION:
Mayo could help contenders such as Boston and Chicago get younger
and more athletic at the 2-guard.

THE RIGHT PRICE:
Four years, $30 million, if he has a skillful agent.


6. O.J. MAYO：

因為 O.J. MAYO 的選秀順位非常前面，

他已經得到了先發球員的薪資（740萬的報價），但是他連續兩年都是替補。


灰熊已經用超過 5000 萬簽下了 Mike Conley， Zach Randolph 和 Marc Gasol，

而 Rudy Gay 的合約到 2015 年才到期。

所以孟菲斯灰熊隊很可能會放棄 O.J. MAYO。


未來去向預測：

O.J. MAYO 能夠幫助像公牛隊和塞爾提克隊這樣的競爭者，

他們需要補充更加年輕和有運動能力的得分後衛。


合適的價格：

如果他的經紀人足夠有經驗，他能得到4年3000萬的合約。


7. Brook Lopez:

He figures to be the key piece heading to Orlando
in a potential Dwight Howard deal,
which makes him an ideal candidate for a lucrative extension
via a sign-and-trade to make the money match.

That is a bit risky given that he played just five games this season
due to a broken foot and sprained ankle,
but he never missed a game before that.

A scoring center who leaves something to be desired on the backboards
and needs a thug next to him.

DESTINATION: Orlando in a sign-and-trade.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $40 million. He is not a max player.


7. Brook Lopez：

他很可能成為 Dwight Howard 交易的一部分被打包到奧蘭多魔術隊，

所以這讓他很可能成為先簽後換的人選來平衡雙方薪水。


這有點冒險，因為他本賽季由於腳傷和腳踝扭傷只打了5場比賽。

不過他在此之前從未缺席過比賽。


他是個得分型中鋒，需要身邊有一個苦力來搶籃板。


未來去向預測：奧蘭多，先簽後換。

合適的價格：4年4000萬。他不是頂級球員。


8. Michael Beasley:

There was serious interest in him at the trading deadline
because he can flat-out score.

But he is coming off the worst season of his career,
hasn’t gotten any better since entering the league in 2008
and has some off-court issues in his past.

His qualifying offer is nearly $8.2 million
– which Minnesota might offer to keep him as a trade asset.

DESTINATION:
Moving on,
because the Timberwolves have to clear the position for Derrick Williams.

The Lakers showed interest at the deadline. The Bobcats, Kings and Suns
all have cap room and could use his scoring at the 3-spot.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Three years, $24 million. He needs to show maturity.


8. Michael Beasley：

由於 Michael Beasley 能夠得分，在交易截止日前有一些球隊對他很感興趣。


他本賽季的表現為生涯最差，

事實上他從2008年進入聯盟後就沒有進步，而且他現在也有些賽場外的問題。


他的資格報價大約是820萬－－明尼蘇達灰狼隊可能會提供給他，並且留下他用來交易。


未來去向預測：

離開。因為明尼蘇達需要為 Derrick Williams 清出位置。

湖人在交易截止日顯示了對他的興趣。

山貓，國王和太陽都有薪資空間，並且需要他在小前鋒位置上的得分。


合適的價格：3年2400萬。他需要表現得更成熟。


9. Jeremy Lin :

The arbitration case to determine whether the Knicks have Bird rights on Lin
and Steve Novak (both claimed on waivers)
will go a long way toward determining his future.

After setting the basketball world on its ear,
Lin won’t be a minimum player anymore.

The Knicks would love to win the arbitration case and exceed the cap
to re-sign him and save their mid-level exception for someone else
– like Steve Nash.

Keep in mind that Lin’s body of work, while solid, was two months.


DESTINATION:

Really can’t see the Knicks letting a draw like Lin get away,
even at the expense of Nash.

Portland needs a point and could make a serious offer,
as could Dallas and Denver.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $21 million.


9. 林書豪：

決定紐約尼克隊對林書豪和 Steve Novak（他倆都聲稱豁免）

是否擁有“伯德條款”的仲裁將會對他的未來影響深遠。


在引領了一場籃球界的旋風後，林書豪不再是一個底薪球員了。


紐約尼克隊會非常想贏得仲裁，然後超過工資帽重新簽下林書豪，

這樣節省下來的中產條款就可以留給別人了－－比如 Steve Nash 。


記住，林書豪健康的身體只持續了兩個月。


未來去向預測：

很難想像紐約尼克隊會讓這麼一棵搖錢樹離開，即使他們花掉留給 Steve Nash 的錢。

波特蘭需要一個控衛，他們會提供一個考慮充分的報價，達拉斯和丹佛也會。


合適的價格：4年2100萬。


10. George Hill :

He will be priority No. 2 for the Pacers,
but they cannot underestimate his value as a combo guard.

He took Darren Collison’s starting point spot late in the season
and was solid in the playoffs, as he had been for the Spurs.

Just 26, his qualifying offer is about $3.1 million,
and Indiana has the cap room to keep him around.


DESTINATION:

Hard to see the Pacers letting him go
unless they put the full-court press on Gordon.

If so, the Wizards, Jazz, Blazers, Suns or Mavs may pounce with a big offer.

THE RIGHT PRICE: Four years, $28 million.


10. George Hill：

他可能是印第安納溜馬隊第二考慮的人，但是他雙能控衛的屬性不會被低估。


就像他在馬刺一樣，

他在賽季末段頂替 Darren Collison 擔任先發控衛，並且在季後賽中表現良好。


他只有26歲，資格報價為310萬，溜馬隊有空間留下他。


未來去向預測：

很難想像溜馬隊會讓他離開，除非他們全力追逐 Eric Gordon，並讓他打兩個位置。


如果 George Hill 離開，華盛頓巫師隊，猶他爵士隊，波特蘭拓荒者隊，

鳳凰城太陽隊和達拉斯小牛隊都會提供一份肥約。


合適的價格：4年2800萬。


FIVE MORE TO TRACK:

Omer Asik, C; Jerryd Bayless, G; Aaron Brooks, G;

J.J. Hickson, F; Jason Thompson, F.


另外5個值得觀察的球員：

Omer Asik，中鋒；Jerryd Bayless，後衛；Aaron Brooks，後衛；

J.J. Hickson，前鋒； Jason Thompson，前鋒。


翻譯來源參考:

http://bbs.hupu.com/3768289.html


備註:

能列在這名單上的球員都算是曾打出成績的大魚


值得注意的是 林書豪能跟預測一般 與球隊簽下4年2100萬(或在此之上)的合約呢?

只要保持健康的身體與本季的數據  誰說沒有機會呢?

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