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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp06/insider/columns/
story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Pistons0607
Go to: Offseason moves | Biggest strength | Biggest weakness | Outlook
Maybe they just peaked too early. The Pistons responded to new coach Flip
Saunders in strong fashion, racing out to a 37-5 start that had some pundits
talking about naming all five Detroit starters to the All-Star team. Four of
them ended up making it as a reward for the Pistons' hot start, but they
cooled off considerably in the second half. Detroit's 27-13 mark in the final
40 games was plenty impressive in its own right, but paled beside the
scalding start.
Darko
Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images
Mr. Big Shot enjoyed himself an All-Star season in Detroit.
In retrospect, perhaps that should have been a warning sign. But few were
concerned when the playoffs started as Detroit easily advanced past Milwaukee
in five games in the first round and then crushed Cleveland 113-86 in the
opening game of the second round.
At that point, the Pistons' offense careened off a cliff and was never heard
from again. They didn't clear 100 points once in their final 12 playoff games
and rarely threatened it, scoring 86 points or fewer in nine of the contests.
As a result, Detroit barely eked past Cleveland in the second round -- the
Pistons averaged 79.2 points in the final five games -- and bowed out meekly
in six to Miami in the conference finals.
What's amazing is how broad-based the decline was. Usually when a team
suddenly goes into a funk in the postseason, the decline is easy to pin on
one or two players, or perhaps a key injury. The Pistons had one injury of
note -- Rasheed Wallace turned his ankle in Game 4 of the Cleveland series
and didn't seem to be the same player afterward -- but mainly, all the guys
who declined were the ones who made shots for them all season.
The four Detroit All-Stars all had enormous drops in their PERs (player
efficiency ratings) from the regular season to the postseason, accounting for
nearly all the offensive decline for the team as a whole.
Lowest turnover rates, 2005-06
Team Pct of possessions ending in turnover
Detroit 12.6
Phoenix 13.4
Toronto
13.8
New Orleans/OKC
14.5
Washington 14.5
NBA avg. 15.3
One has to wonder if this was from fatigue. Not the fatigue most people talk
about -- playing the starters too many minutes -- but the accumulated fatigue
of three straight seasons playing deep into June. Detroit had an amazing run
of health in that time, so the key Pistons were on their third straight
season of playing 100-plus games without a break, and they just looked out of
gas by mid-May. Lending credence to this theory is that the youngest of
Detroit's starters, Tayshaun Prince, was the only one with any juice in his
step in the playoffs.
However, the shocking offensive meltdown in the playoffs shouldn't cause us
to re-evaluate Detroit's magical regular season. The Pistons won 64 games and
were the class of the league from wire to wire. Saunders made the
defense-oriented Pistons a much more offensive club, to the point that for a
while they were No. 1 in the league in offensive efficiency rating. The
Pistons finished the season at No. 3 and did it in a very weird way.
The Pistons didn't shoot an unusually high percentage, and other than Billups
they generated very few free-throw attempts, so that as a team their true
shooting percentage was just a hair below the league average.
Instead, the way they succeeded came down to possessions. Detroit was above
average on the offensive boards and made very few turnovers, so they
maximized their shot attempts. On a per-possession basis, only Dallas got
more shots than the Pistons.
Detroit's turnover avoidance was particularly amazing. The Pistons turned the
ball over on only 12.6 percent of their possessions -- even the Phoenix
juggernaut couldn't come close to matching that. The low rate saved the team
nearly three possessions a game, giving them a major advantage at the
offensive end. Billups was the key, as he could drive to the hoop without
losing the ball or set up other players for jumpers, a low-turnover
proposition.
Top 3-point defenses, 2005-06
Team Opponent 3-pt. Pct.
Detroit 32.5
Memphis 33.4
San Antonio
33.9
Indiana
34.3
L.A. Clippers 34.6
NBA avg. 35.8
The Pistons' other change was that they were much more amenable to the
3-point shot, which probably has more to do with former coach Larry Brown
than Saunders. Brown's teams historically have always shot very few
3-pointers, and that was the case with his new team in New York last season.
The increase by Detroit was likely just the result of Saunders removing the
shackles.
Defensively, the Pistons were an unusual team, as well. They didn't defend as
well as in previous seasons, finishing the season ranked fifth in defensive
efficiency rating. Part of that may be a garbage-time illusion -- Detroit won
so many blowouts that the second unit played much more than in previous
seasons. Despite the importance of the starting five, none averaged more than
36.1 minutes per game because they got early breathers on so many nights.
Fewest free throws allowed, 2005-06
Team Opponent FTA per FGA
Detroit .260
Phoenix .274
Sacramento
.281
San Antonio
.298
Cleveland
.304
NBA avg. .333
However, the Pistons were markedly worse in field-goal defense and defensive
rebounding -- both had been specialties a season earlier, but the Pistons
slipped toward the league average in 2005-06. What kept Detroit's defense on
top was its amazing ability to avoid fouling while cutting off the 3-point
line. Only San Antonio surrendered fewer 3-point attempts, and the Pistons
held opponents to a league-best 32.5 percent from beyond the arc. Meanwhile,
the Pistons allowed only .26 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt,
easily the lowest rate in basketball. Incidentally, this also allowed them to
get by with a three-man frontcourt rotation, as foul trouble rarely played an
important role.
The key to both figures was Detroit's ability to defend man-to-man without
requiring any help. The lack of double teams made it difficult to get open
space for 3-pointers, while the low number of fouls came in part because
Detroit defenders didn't need to gamble, since they could just funnel
penetrators toward Ben Wallace instead.
The resulting dichotomy is fairly neat to observe -- the Pistons shot
virtually the same percentage as their opponents (45.5 percent to 45.2
percent) yet were so dominant in other areas that they were among the
league's best at each end of the floor.
OFFSEASON MOVES
The Pistons' offseason was dominated not by any "move" in the traditional
sense, but rather the move of one of the team's best players to another city.
Ben Wallace spurned the Pistons to sign a four-season, $60 million deal with
Chicago, leaving a huge void in the middle where a four-time Defensive Player
of the Year once roamed.
What made this move so damaging for Detroit wasn't just the Wallace departure
itself, but also all the moves leading up to it. Most of the Pistons'
personnel decisions in the past two seasons have been made with at least one
eye toward keeping Wallace in the summer of 2006, and Billups next summer,
while still avoiding luxury tax. This has been the case almost since the day
they won their 2004 title, after which they let Mike James leave as a free
agent and traded Corliss Williamson for peanuts, and it remained the case
right up to the draft-day trade of Maurice Evans.
The most notable maneuver was the midseason trade of Darko Milicic and Carlos
Arroyo to Orlando for Kelvin Cato and a first-round pick. The Pistons liked
Milicic but wanted to clear enough money to stay under the tax once they
re-signed Wallace, so packaging the two contracts accomplished that.
However, in his aggressiveness to make those deals, team president Joe Dumars
also painted himself further and further into a corner. He had to have
Wallace re-sign, and when he didn't it left the team with no Plan B. Now they
have no Milicic and no Wallace, and they had to use their entire midlevel
exception to get a replacement instead of addressing the team's other needs.
Mohammed
. Signed Nazr Mohammed. Detroit inked the former Spurs center for their
entire midlevel exception, and it was a fair deal as far as the money goes.
Mohammed is a strong offensive rebounder who doesn't need the ball much
offensively, so he's a good replacement for Wallace that way. However, the
drop-off is still rather noticeable.
. Signed Ronald Dupree. A quality low-level signing, Dupree can defend and
comes cheap, so he's a good 10th or 11th man.
. Traded Evans to Lakers for a second-round pick. The only positive from this
deal is that it gives the Pistons a cap exception that they could use to pick
up a modestly talented player during the season. But the player is unlikely
to be as good as Evans, and the main motivation for this deal -- clearing
luxury-tax room -- proved to be pointless when Wallace left.
. Signed Ronald Murray. Detroit needed a penetrating guard in the worst way,
and Murray is a penetrating guard in the worst way. He can slash to the hoop,
but his shot selection and poor outside stroke make him a tough fit with such
a harmonious bunch. It was the best they could do with the money -- Detroit
wanted to use its midlevel exception to target this spot but had to use its
biannual exception instead because it needed the midlevel for Mohammed.
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Tayshaun Prince
Elsa/Getty Images
Prince was one Piston who didn't appear to run out of gas.
Perimeter defense. For years, Detroit's interior defense had opponents
cowering in fear as they shied away at taking the ball at shot-blockers Ben
and Rasheed Wallace. That fear is less now that Big Ben chimes in Chicago,
but his absence may garner more attention for the Pistons' other quality
defenders.
Leading the way is the small forward, Prince, a world-class stopper whose
insanely long arms allow him to play miles away from his man and still alter
shots. Billups is nearly as good, having the strength and size to defend
shooting guards but also possessing the dexterity to defend the point.
Shooting guard Richard Hamilton isn't nearly in the same class, but his foot
speed makes him a useful complement to Billups because he can cover small,
quick guys like Allen Iverson and Tony Parker.
Off the bench, Lindsey Hunter's pesky defense has kept him in the league
despite the total collapse of his offensive game, and backup wingman Carlos
Delfino is no slouch either.
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Depth. Detroit's second unit has been an Achilles' heel for most of the past
three years, except it hasn't been exposed because the starting unit has been
so healthy. The health of the starters isn't guaranteed, however, and the
second five is as vulnerable as ever.
At the point, the Pistons will be counting on Hunter, who turns 36 in
December and hasn't shot over 38.2 percent in seven years. At shooting guard,
there's Murray, whose "volume scorer" tag is a euphemism for "needs 12 shots
to get eight points." Delfino, a small forward, is another player who has
struggled to find the basket, which is a shame because he's solid in other
respects.
Up front, McDyess is the team's only quality reserve but may be asked to play
heavy minutes at center, a stretch for him, while veteran Dale Davis and
second-season pro Jason Maxiell are likely to contribute little.
None of this matters if they have to play only five or 10 minutes per night,
like they did a season ago. But their burden is likely to increase
considerably unless there's another season left on Dumars' pact with the
devil that makes his team immune to injuries.
2006-07 OUTLOOK
The Pistons were going to have an extremely hard time matching last season's
record even with Ben Wallace. For one thing, Detroit's run of health last
season bordered on absurd, as the Pistons set an NBA record by keeping the
starting lineup intact for the first 73 games. It wasn't just the starters
either -- reserves Evans, Antonio McDyess, Arroyo and Tony Delk also skated
through the season unscathed, a phenomenal run of good fortune that has
virtually no chance of repeating itself in 2006-07.
The injury consideration is particularly important for Detroit because the
team has been so heavily dependent on its starting five and, to a slightly
lesser extent, McDyess. An injury to any one of them forces a much worse
player into the lineup, making the Pistons much more vulnerable to injury
than, say, Dallas or Indiana.
But injuries aren't the only negative indicator for the Pistons. Billups had
a "fluke rule" season in 2006-07, which means there's a strong possibility
his performance will drop off this season. If so, that will cost the Pistons
a few games. Throw in the Evans giveaway, and the effective exchange of Delk
for Murray, and Detroit drops another notch.
So the Pistons were probably looking more like a 50- or 55-win team for
2006-07 than the 64-win team they were last season, even if they had kept
Wallace.
Throw in the fact that Wallace left, and the picture darkens further.
Mohammed is a nice player, but he won't make nearly the impact Wallace did at
the defensive end. Moreover, he's not capable of playing as long because he
fouls more frequently. That exposes Detroit to longer periods when either the
undersized McDyess or aging warhorse Davis is manning the middle, diminishing
the club still further.
All told, then, I'm expecting the Pistons' win total to take a big hit -- in
the neighborhood of 20 games or so. That's massive, and if it plays out that
way we'll see lots of column inches devoted to lauding Ben Wallace's
importance to the Pistons. But losing Wallace is only a part of it -- in all
likelihood this team was going to drop 12 games or so in the standings even
if Wallace stayed.
Detroit will still make the playoffs, but unless Dumars has another ace up
his sleeve, it's hard to take the Pistons seriously as an Eastern Conference
contender.
--
I knew I loved you before I met you
I think I dreamed you into life
I knew I loved you before I met you
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