來源:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/
story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=ScoutingMagicPistons
he Magic-Pistons series will feature some classic down-tempo, playoff-style
NBA basketball.
Unfortunately, that spells doom for the Magic. Here's why:
Orlando's all-too-predictable offense ranks 25th in offensive efficiency,
while Detroit is at No. 6. Almost as important, Orlando has the highest
turnover rate in the league, while Detroit has the lowest.
Look for Detroit to use all of its offensive weapons -- especially Chauncey
Billups and Richard Hamilton on pick-and-rolls and Chris Webber and Rasheed
Wallace off the pinch post, with lots of back screen and ball screen action.
You'll also see Tayshaun Prince posting up smaller defenders.
Orlando comes in having won six of its last seven games -- the one loss was
to Detroit on April 11. The Magic's wins were not too impressive, however, as
they beat only two playoff teams in that stretch -- depleted Washington and a
Miami team resting its stars.
Still Orlando's two wings, Hedo Turkoglu and Grant Hill, are playing great
basketball right now. And the Magic are an excellent defensive team because
of their size and versatility, including Dwight Howard inside.
Detroit has been on cruise control for a little while. But after last
season's playoff meltdown, you would expect the Pistons to be more prepared
to take care of business every night out.
ORLANDO MAGIC
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Jameer Nelson
13.0 ppg
3.1 rpg
4.3 apg
PG
Chauncey Billups
17.0 ppg
3.4 rpg
7.2 apg
Nelson: He did not have a great season as some expected, and is locked into a
very tough matchup in this series with Chauncey Billups. Nelson's 3-point
shooting has dropped significantly late in the season (he's made just 12 of
his last 52), a disturbing trend for a team already lacking in scoring punch.
Nelson is a tough defender, and his small size does not get exploited on
post-ups because of his strength. He does, however, get hurt by Billups
backing him down then spinning toward the basket or simply rising up and
shooting over him.
Billups: The engine that makes this Detroit car go, and the driver as well.
Billups, one of the game's smartest players, has really sharpened his focus
of late. His turnover rate of 1.4 per game in April was his best month all
season. After struggling from 3-point land in February and March, Billups
picked up that part of his game, too, making more than 40 percent in April.
His 26 ppg on 63 percent shooting versus the Magic this season was his best
output against any team that qualified for the playoffs. He will be the guy
most mentioned on Orlando's scouting report.
ORLANDO MAGIC
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Grant Hill
14.4 ppg
3.6 rpg
2.1 apg
SG
Richard Hamilton
19.8 ppg
3.8 rpg
3.8 apg
Hill: One of the best stories of the playoffs is former all-everything Grant
Hill's return to Detroit.
He loved playing against the Pistons this season, shooting 60 percent from
the field in four games. He is peaking now -- his 15.9 ppg and 59.6 percent
shooting in April were the best he recorded in any month. Hill still excels
at finishing in transition and will team up with Hedo Turkoglu to get the
Magic's perimeter scoring in gear.
Hamilton: He's a tireless runner and big-time performer who plays off his
teammates beautifully. Hamilton got his shot dialed in recently, shooting
7-for-16 from 3-point range and 51.5 percent overall from the field.
He's a solid defender, but will struggle a little to defend either Turkoglu
or Hill due to the difference in size. And both guys defend him well too,
using their length to affect his shot.
ORLANDO MAGIC
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Hedo Turkoglu
13.3 ppg
4.0 rpg
3.2 apg
SF
Tayshaun Prince
14.3 ppg
5.2 rpg
2.8 apg
Turkoglu: He may be the biggest reason Orlando rallied in April and secured a
playoff spot. He too had a huge April -- 18 points per game on 48 percent
shooting, including 20-of-42 (47.6 percent) in 3-pointers and 30-of-33 from
the line.
Turkoglu is an underrated defender, using strength and length to frustrate
and contest shooters or drivers. He defends Prince well in the post, but gets
neutralized by Prince on the other end as well. Hedo is shooting just 33
percent from the field in the Magic's four games against Detroit.
Prince: He is a classic role player, and better yet, can adjust his role from
game to game or series to series.
Against the Magic, look for Prince to put a glove on either Hill or Turkoglu,
effectively shutting down one of Orlando's two most explosive wing scorers.
This might come, though, at the expense of his offensive game -- he averaged
only 10 ppg on 39 percent shooting against Orlando.
Prince did not shoot well at the end of the season, a troubling trend if he
does not pick it up in this series.
ORLANDO MAGIC
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Tony Battie
6.1 ppg
5.2 rpg
0.5 apg
PF
Rasheed Wallace
12.3 ppg
7.2 rpg
1.7 apg
Battie: This is one of the places the Magic get hurt by the Pistons. While
Battie is a capable veteran, he is overmatched by all three of the Pistons'
top post players. His lack of scoring punch inside and his average-at-best
outside shooting allow the Pistons to focus on the other four Magic scorers.
Wallace: He comes into the series well-rested, averaging only 24 minutes per
game in April. Wallace will be utilized as both a pick-and-pop guy and
someone who can score and pass well from the pinch post.
Detroit mainly needs him to be an effective post defender against Howard,
using his length and smarts to play behind Dwight and take away angles to the
rim. An engaged Wallace on defense will go a long way toward seeing Detroit
end this series quickly.
ORLANDO MAGIC
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Dwight Howard
17.6 ppg
12.3 rpg
1.9 apg
C
Chris Webber
11.3 ppg
6.7 rpg
3.0 apg
Howard: He will have to become a Monster of Motown if the Magic have any
chance of stealing a game in Detroit.
Howard has been effective against Detroit this season, scoring 20.8 ppg and
grabbing 13.5 boards. But he'll have to do even more, as the Magic lost all
four games against Detroit.
The Pistons allow Howard to get more shots than any other team in the East,
13 per game, choosing to let him go one-on-one with the inside "Big 3" from
Detroit.
Webber: He's a tough guy to figure out. His passing from the low and high
post has added some much-needed "freshness" to the Pistons' attack. They can
run so many sets through him.
But his energy level really dipped in April, as he shot a season-low 36.8
percent and saw his rebound rate drop, too. He was not moving well, though
it's possible that he was simply conserving energy.
Webber does not need to do much to defend Battie, but when he is called upon
to hold Howard down he will have to play much harder or he will be crushed by
the talent and energy of the youngster.
ORLANDO MAGIC
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Darko Milicic
8.0 ppg
5.5 rpg
1.1 apg
BENCH
Antonio McDyess
8.1 ppg
6.0 rpg
0.9 apg
MAGIC
Darko Milicic, C: The big X factor of the series, in two ways: (1) First, can
he play after injuring his ankle on Tuesday night? (2) Assuming he can go,
can he step up his production?
Darko played well late in the season, shooting 65.8 percent from the field
and blocking two shots a game in just 23 minutes per game in April. But he
has not fared well against his former teammates, averaging just 5.8 ppg in
the four matchups.
This is an amazing opportunity for the former No. 2 pick of the Pistons.
Darko needs to play with passion and hit some outside shots to give his new
team a chance to win even one game.
Keyon Dooling, PG: Dooling is another guy who stepped it up late, averaging
just over 10 ppg in April, his best month all season. He's a decent shooter
who can get hot, and his size and speed can provide some defense against
Billups.
Trevor Ariza, SF: My early pick for breakout player next season, we sometimes
forget that this speedster is just 21 years old. He is Orlando's energy guy,
someone who can pump up the pace and make plays on defense to ignite an
Orlando run.
J.J. Redick, SG: Not much is expected from him, but he is Orlando's best
3-point shooter, so we can expect to see him play in special situations.
PISTONS
Antonio McDyess, PF/C: Maybe Detroit's best post player, and someone who
really turned it on as the season progressed. Averaged 10 points and seven
boards in just 22 minutes in April. McDyess is an underrated shooter off
Detroit's ball-screen actions, and has the size and strength to challenge
Howard inside.
Dale Davis, C: Just one more big and experienced body to throw up against
Howard.
Flip Murray, SG/PG: A bit of a disappointment this year, Murray just isn't
the shooter from long range that Detroit thought he'd be. He is an energy guy
who will push tempo and look to create easy scoring opportunities.
--
"We'll see them bandwagon ass-cats come May and June," - Rasheed Wallace
--
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