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Scouts Inc. Scouting Breakdown: Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Thorpe
By David Thorpe
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Insider
Updated: May 21, 2007, 2:21 AM ET
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Both of these teams are more flawed than the two teams remaining in the
Western Conference. The failure of the Pistons and the Cavs to close out Game
5 at home in the previous round was unsettling. On the other hand, coming
back to win Game 6 on the road was a testament to the way these teams defend.
Both are excellent on the defensive end -- the best two teams in Defensive
Efficiency.
Cleveland played outstanding defense against the Nets, a team like Detroit
that features three great perimeter players. But unlike New Jersey, Detroit
has inside players that can score inside and out, and guards that like to
post. The Cavs will be hard-pressed to focus their defense on any one player
because of the balanced attack Detroit employs.
Both teams have good size inside which makes finishing at the rim more of a
challenge, and places a premium at getting to the free throw line by
finishing with strength (something the Bulls and Nets struggled to do at
times).
The individual matchups are interesting -- Cleveland has the best overall
player and a better bench, while Detroit has that terrific starting five,
though one of them is not so terrific anymore.
Let's take a closer look:
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Larry Hughes
14.9 ppg
3.8 rpg
3.7 apg
PG
Chauncey Billups
17.0 ppg
3.4 rpg
7.2 apg
Hughes: He will be faced with two difficult challenges in this series --
defending Chauncey Billups, and figuring out what he is doing wrong on his
shots to miss so often.
Against Billups, his superior quickness works well to cut off his driving
angles and forces Billups to shoot more jumpers. Also, Hughes can back off of
Billups when the Pistons' point guard is in "passing mode" and use his
excellent length and timing to deflect or steal entry passes.
Hughes shot well from 3-point land against the Nets (10-for-27) but made only
21-of-69 3-point attempts. He also shot just 52 percent from the line after
hitting 25-for-26 in Round 1.
If LeBron gets hot and the Pistons decide to double him, it is likely that
Hughes will be the Cav they will leave open most often.
To counter the Pistons' strong 3-2 zone, Hughes must penetrate and dish.
Billups: "Mr. Big Shot" seems to be the best "find a way" point guard in
these playoffs. Despite poor shooting from the field against Chicago's fine
perimeter defenders, Billups scored 20 points or better in four of the six
games. His 14-for-14 performance from the line in Game 6 was no surprise, as
he is considered one of the best clutch shooters we have in the league.
But he has struggled in four games this season vs. the Cavs, shooting just 33
percent and averaging over four turnovers a game. Cleveland's excellence at
rotating and getting hands in passing lanes will force Billups to play a
little more conservatively and might have him guessing a bit. He may decide
to push the tempo a bit more than usual, looking for an easy basket before
facing the teeth of Cleveland's tough defense.
Billups' ability to get the Pistons, including himself, good shots while not
turning the ball over (which he rarely does) will be a major factor in the
series.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Sasha Pavlovic
9.0 ppg
2.4 rpg
1.6 apg
SG
Richard Hamilton
19.8 ppg
3.8 rpg
3.8 apg
Pavlovic: Sasha started the Nets series as a key offensive player, but
finished as a player searching for his game. He shot just 9-for-28 overall in
Cleveland's last four games, 5-for-18 from the 3-point line in their last
five, and 56 percent from the free-throw line in the series.
He is an underrated defensive player, playing strong and doing an excellent
job of staying on his feet and between his man and the rim. In this round,
he'll be chasing Rip Hamilton, a bigger challenge than New Jersey's sedentary
offense, but he is capable of giving Hamilton a tough time.
Pavlovic, like Hughes, needs to find his shooting stroke quickly for the Cavs
to win this series.
Hamilton: A player who has developed a well-rounded skill set, Hamilton is
capable of posting Pavlovic, knocking in the catch-and-shoot 2-pointer or
3-pointer or driving for a better shot.
He runs through screens on many of Detroit's sets (he's probably the best at
this in the NBA), which may be what it takes to shake the bigger Pavlovic.
In the New Jersey series, Cleveland did an excellent job of releasing to
Vince Carter on the catch or drive and shutting him down. They might employ
the same tactic on Hamilton to help Pavlovic.
Hamilton's an excellent defender who takes a lot of pride on that end of the
floor. He will be asked to occassionally guard LeBron James, a tough task
when James is inclined to get down low and score. But if James attacks from
the perimeter, Hamilton should be able to stay in front of him.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
LeBron James
27.3 ppg
6.7 rpg
6.0 apg
SF
Tayshaun Prince
14.3 ppg
5.2 rpg
2.8 apg
James: If averaging 25 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists can be
considered ordinary for James, then James was just that against the Nets.
Shooting 42 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from 3-point country,
LeBron made up for those low numbers with terrific passing, as he faced two,
three or four defenders on most of his drives.
His mindset against the Pistons must be to attack, as Detroit will often
guard him with just Tayshaun Prince and not offer much help. Prince's
incredible length and feel allow him to influence James on his jumpers, but
James has a big strength advantage if he uses it. Detroit has had success
against the Cavs by limiting James' ability to create easy shots for
teammates because the Pistons tend to stay at home in their coverage.
James' power will be a big help to the Cavs on defense, negating Prince's
effective and efficient post-ups. He has trouble backing down a player like
James.
Prince: He's my pick for the Eastern Conference MVP for the playoffs thus
far. Prince is shooting extremely well on 2-pointers and 3-pointers (50
percent in both categories) in the two playoff series. He rarely takes bad
shots, or turns the ball over, yet he handles the ball quite a bit.
His post offense down the stretch in Game 6 was huge in Chicago, and his
passing has been a strong suit, too.
And his defense is spectacular -- the key matchup of the Eastern Conference
Finals will be his defense vs. James' offense.
But the most important contribution he makes is his leadership and the
respect he demands from his teammates. No player works at composing the
Pistons after the whistle moreso than Prince, and no person is more effective
at preventing meltdowns from them.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Drew Gooden
11.1 ppg
8.5 rpg
1.1 apg
PF
Rasheed Wallace
12.3 ppg
7.2 rpg
1.7 apg
Gooden: A solid player for the Cavs in the postseason, and he will be
expected to hold his own against the smart and talented big men of the
Pistons.
Gooden is a bit quicker than his counterparts, so he can get to the rim off
shot-fake attack moves from a face-up position. He must go strongly, though,
as the length of Wallace and McDyess can trap Gooden under the rim if he
doesn't. Gooden is an important part of the rebounding excellence of the Cavs
-- he pulled down 45 rebounds in their four wins (and just 12 in their two
losses) against the Nets.
Gooden is not the most "aware" defender the Cavs have, something to watch for
when he is guarding Rasheed Wallace in crunch time and Wallace floats to the
3-point line, from where he knocked down 40.7 percent of his shots this
season.
Wallace: He's my pick for the Pistons' MIP -- Most Important Player.
Wallace has always had elite talent, and with a few minor exceptions, he has
been sharp and level-headed in this year's playoffs.
If he is off his game on the court but is not a distraction, the Pistons are
fine. It's when he is a distraction that the wheels can come off for Detroit.
I liked Wallace's demeanor in Round 2, at the edge a few times but mostly
under control.
Wallace does not come into this series shooting it well from the 3-point
line, making just seven of his last 30 attempts. That is a concern, as he
made just 2-for-15 against the Cavs this year. Gooden's quickness bothers
Wallace on both ends of the floor.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
11.9 ppg
7.7 rpg
1.6 apg
C
Chris Webber
11.2 ppg
7.2 rpg
3.1 apg
Ilgauskas: Like Gooden, Ilgauskas was solid, not spectacular, against the
Nets. He had eight offensive rebounds in Game 1, getting the Cavs that big
win, but only had nine more the rest of the series.
His size over Webber will be somewhat negated unless he takes a strong
position near the rim and fights each possession. Webber has been slower
afoot than usual of late, so Ilgauskas should be able to get some work done
on the offensive glass and knock down some jumpers before Webber closes him
out.
Most importantly, though, is how he defends Webber inside. If he can slow
Webber without help, it allows the excellent perimeter defenders of the Cavs
to lock in. Ilgauskas did just that in the regular season matchups.
Webber: Webber's matchup with Ilgauskas will be a key one to watch, as
Detroit enjoys an edge in three of the four other starting positions. It will
be much more difficult for Detroit to win games if Webber is outscored
significantly so by Ilgauskas.
That is a fair concern after Webber's struggles against the smaller Bulls
frontline. Though he did have a big Game 2, notching 22 points, he scored
only 19 points in the other five games, going scoreless in two of them.
Webber's pick-and-pop jumpshot will be slightly more available against the
slower close-outs of Ilgauskas.
On the other end, Webber will have to work hard at keeping Ilgauskas off the
offensive backboards.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
POSITION
DETROIT PISTONS
Donyell Marshall
7.0 ppg
4.0 rpg
0.6 apg
BENCH
Antonio McDyess
8.1 ppg
6.0 rpg
0.9 apg
CAVALIERS
After Donyell Marshall had scored just 16 points in Cleveland's first nine
playoff games combined, his 18-point outburst was a key to Game 6 vs. New
Jersey. If he can pull off a similar game against Detroit, then the pressure
on Hughes or Pavlovic to perform well is mitigated.
Anderson Varejao plays to his strengths every night out, and allows the Cavs
to compete head up with the three bigs from Detroit, a luxury few teams enjoy.
Daniel Gibson gives the Cavs a zone-buster, an important option when Detroit
employs its excellent 3-2 zone with Tayshaun Prince at the top. Gibson will
be stationed on the wing, and counted on to hit jumpers to shake the Pistons
out of their zone.
Eric Snow was indeed an inspiration for his team against the Nets, playing
with passion and energy. But it is his superb post defense that may be most
meaningful in this series, if Billups or Hamilton enjoy success inside when
defended by other players.
PISTONS
Detroit's coaches have to be disappointed with the play of their bench
against the Bulls.
Antonio McDyess plays solid defense, and will be counted on to limit the
effectiveness of Gooden and Varejao on the glass. But his shooting has been
off of late -- just 31.4 percent in the 10 playoff games.
Jason Maxiell has the toughness and energy to give the Pistons a lift,
especially if their bigs look a little lifeless on the road in Cleveland.
Of the guards, Lindsay Hunter provides veteran leadership and a defensive
spark, but little else. Carlos Delfino provides even less. Flip Murray might
be a guy Saunders tries once in while to see if he can get hot for a spell,
but little is expected of him.
BOTTOM LINE
As always with teams that are evenly matched (for the most part), the series
might come down to which team can find guys who can knock down open jumpers.
Neither team has had good success as a unit shooting the ball, both under 44
percent for the playoffs. But the Pistons have more good shooters, and their
low turnover ratio normally translates into more shots.
If it doesn't, it means that Cleveland is enjoying an advantage on the
offensive boards, something we may very likely see in a few games. Prince not
needing help on James is crucial in this regard, because if he needs cover
from his bigs then the Cavs can really hurt the Pisons on second shots.
Detroit's tendency to take bad shots against strong defensive teams suggests
to me that they will struggle to score in at least three or four games this
series. But their defense should bail them out of one or two of those games.
Detroit looks like a team that recognizes the shot they have at winning a
ring this year, so they will be highly aware of James' presence every night.
The Cavs need him to elevate his game to new levels to beat this Pistons team
(just as Dwyane Wade did last year). But LeBron is not yet a good enough
shooter to carry a team when the opponents are so focused on slowing him from
getting to the rim
Both teams are equipped to win on the road, but Detroit is the better road
team, and the better team overall.
PREDICTION: Detroit 4, Cleveland 2
ESPN.com's Scouts Inc. will provide detailed scouting reports for each NBA
playoff series and each NBA playoff game.
David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for ESPN.com and the executive director of the
Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he works as a personal coach
for Udonis Haslem (Miami Heat), Orien Greene (Indiana Pacers), Alexander
Johnson (Memphis Grizzlies) and Kevin Martin (Sacramento Kings).
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