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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2007/insider/columns/
story?columnist=thorpe_david&page=ScoutingCavaliersPistons-Game4
Scouts Inc. update: Cavaliers vs. Pistons, Game 4
Thorpe
By David Thorpe
Scouts Inc.
(Archive)
Insider
Updated: May 29, 2007
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‧ Cavs-Pistons series scouting report | Series page
In skill sports, much like any competitive event, there are many variables
that help dictate outcomes. But all things being equal, no variable impacts
who wins and loses more than confidence. Confidence is a powerful ally, but
it is fleeting, too. Most fans would be very surprised to learn just how
often their favorite player looks the same on the outside, but inside his
head he is questioning himself, his team, the situation, or his coach.
One of the best ways to get a team feeling good about itself is to play a
game in front of a loud and partisan home crowd. Game 3 was a great example
of this, as Detroit and Cleveland played similarly to their previous games,
in terms of strategy and execution, yet each team shot better than the first
two games (remember, Detroit feeds off quieting a crowd more than any other
team). Detroit's improvement was slight, while Cleveland jumped from 40
percent in Game 2 to 49 percent in Game 3.
Each game has showed that the team that shot the ball better pulled out the
win. Still, when the game was tight in the fourth quarter, statistics do not
matter -- getting buckets does. And LeBron James, enjoying his first breakout
game in the series, closed in dramatic fashion. Feeling good from his overall
game coupled with a solid shooting performance heading into the fourth
quarter, James looked like he wanted to take, and make, the biggest shots.
After failing in Detroit, James and the Cavs made the big shots late, thanks
in large part to the confidence he and they earned early in the game.
Cleveland got James in gear by looking to push on misses in the first
quarter. James got a dunk off his own defensive rebound and push by using an
influence screen from a hustling Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who ran hard rim to rim
and occupied the middle of the paint. Bigs must run to maximize transition
opportunities, whether they catch a pass or not. Then James dunked off a pass
from Sasha Pavlovic, again benefitting from a hustling big, this time Drew
Gooden.
After he made one of two from the line following a foul used to prevent
another fast break basket, James had five points and the Cavs were up 7-0
after three minutes. That Detroit outscored Cleveland by one over the last 45
minutes is relevant -- in a series this tight any run can become the
difference between winning and losing. Detroit put a halt on Cleveland's
running game by getting their players back on defense, forfeiting most
offensive rebounding opportunties. This will be an important area to watch in
Game 4 -- if Detroit attacks the glass then the Cavs should go up-tempo again.
Even though a more methodical Cleveland offense was not nearly as successful
as the running one was, they still were able to get the ball to James in
crunch time, and he delivered. Detroit, however, is in a deeper quandry; if
Cleveland is scoring more points then they must match that production. They
are a team that prides itself on a strong offensive balance, with no
individual player taking a huge majority of the shots. But that balance is
severely mitigated when one or two of their scorers shoot very poorly from
the field.
In Detroit, it was Tayshaun Prince who couldn't hit a shot (well, he hit one
in 2 games), but this time it was Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups who
shot a combined 6-for-22 (with seven turnovers to five assists). And though
they shoot better when they look for transition buckets, they are loathe to
go up-tempo in Cleveland. Their inside game was clicking, with Chris Webber
and Rasheed Wallace scoring 31 points on 19 shots, so it would not surprise
me to see a more concerted effort to get them involved early and continue to
feed them all game, forgetting about being so "balanced." Doing so may also
help to lower the number of fast breaks Cleveland can lauch as well, since
defending the paint will occupy the bigs.
Both coaches recognized the importance of increasing their scoring
production, at the risk of giving up more good shots on defense. So they
played Flip Murray and Daniel Gibson, who provided a clear lift with their
shooting and driving. Gibson played a big role in the fourth quarter since
Larry Hughes was out with an injury. But since Hughes is supposed to miss
Game 4, will Cavaliers coach Mike Brown go with veteran Eric Snow more for
defense or give the rookie Gibson the majority of minutes to help his team
score? Hughes is known for the chaos he creates on defense, and Pavlovic is
an underrated and solid defender; together they have quieted Billups and
Hamilton. So losing Hughes prompts the biggest question of the series: "Can
Cleveland win without its second-leading scorer?"
Common sense would suggest that a seasoned and mega-talented pro like Billups
would dominate Gibson, throw off the balanced Cavs defense, and get the
Pistons' offense back in gear. But common sense has not ruled this series.
Shooting has. And since the Cavs seemed to find their confidence while
Detroit is still searching, I expect Cleveland to make more shots and tie up
this series.
PREDICTION: Cleveland wins Game 4
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