Re: 2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW

[catsondbs (貓仔)]

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: 標題: 2009 TAMPA BAY RAYS SEASON PREVIEW
: 時間: Wed Feb  4 21:34:03 2009

續上篇

:
: #4-Andy Sonnanstine: 193.3IP, 9.9H/9, 5.8K/9, 3.4K:BB, 1.7BB/9, 1.0HR/9,
: 1.288WHIP, 102ERA+
:
: Sonnanstine is actually a pretty sweet pitcher when you look at his skill
: set. He's got great command and doesn't give up many bombs, but he doesn't
: strike a ton of hitters out so the upside is limited. That H/9IP would look
: better but his BABIP was .312 which was above league average. The big problem
: is that Sonnanstine is relying completely on his guile. His average fastball
: sat at 87mph last season, which coming from a righty is well below average.
: He throws up to 5 pitches for strikes, but I don't know. A few more
: strikeouts, a few more groundballs and who know what can happen? With Price
: in the mix, Sonnanstine is nothing more than a #4-#5 starter, but when you
: can get 200IP out of guy that is going to keep you in games because he
: doesn't walk anyone then that's a great asset to have in your rotation.
: Sonnanstine will only be 26-years old this season so there is certainly time.
:

老實說Andy不是個很好的投手，控球不錯 HR/9也還好，不過低三振率表示他的高點也
不會很高。明年H/9會稍微改善但那是因為有點過高的Babip，問題在於他是個軟投派的
投手，平均速度只有87mph的直球遠遠低於聯盟，所以能倚靠的僅僅只有巧妙的配球。
好壞球比也不漂亮…好吧，如果能多投點三振，多一點滾地球或許能嚇你一跳也不一定。
有Price在輪值，Andy充其量是個4、5號先發，不過隊上有個四壞率低又能吃200IP的
先發也不壞。今季他只有26歲，ya   He still has time.


:
: #5-David Price: 14IP, 5.8H/9, 7.7K/9, 3.0K:BB, 2.6BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 0.929WHIP,
: 230ERA+
:
: Here comes the ringer! Before we get ga-ga over those numbers, remember that
: Price's BABIP in those 14IP was a ridiculous .225. Price works off a
: fastball-slider-changeup arsenal although he barely used his change in the
: majors last season. He pumps his fastball at 94-95mph as a lefty and in
: reality it might only be a matter of time before he is the #1 starter,
: relegating Scott Kazmir to #2 status. It's a good problem to have if you are
: Tampa Bay. There really isn't a knock on Price at this point. He's a good kid
: from Vanderbilt with tremendous makeup. He blew through the SEC and he blew
: through the minor leagues on his way to Tampa Bay. He's a 6-6 lefty who
: throws in the mid-90s with great control of all his pitches. Price even
: pitched in the ALCS and World Series where he did a great job. He had a rough
: spot in Game 2 of the World Series but the Rays were up 4-0 in that game and
: the 2 runs Price gave up were inconsequential. In postseason play he allowed
: just 2 hits and struckout 8 batters in 5.7IP! The only real knock for this
: guy is going to be his durability and health. He only threw about 130IP last
: season and 110 of those were in the minor leagues. Expecting 30+ starts from
: him and 180-200IP might be too much too soon for the guy.
:

數據很不錯，不過既是小樣本(14IP)又是超低的babip(.225)，所以看看就好。他投三
種球種: fastball-slider-changeup，但control不好的changeup在mlb幾乎沒用到。 左
投有94-95mph的fastball（按:先發時是90-94）代表假如時日注定會把Kaz擠到#2的位置
，但對真正的光芒迷來說將是快樂的煩惱。

身高6-6左投加上精準的mid-90s fastball，這個Vanderbilt來的天才小子沒甚麼真正的
問題，在大學、小聯盟甚至WS都有不錯的表現。唯一缺點是他的健康和耐力都需要注意 :
去年包括在小聯盟投的110IP總共只投了130IP(按:他07年沒趕上球季，所以在職棒就只有
這一年 )，假如今年就期望看到他30+先發和180-200IP也許是太過夢想了。

:
: SP-Jason Hammel: 78.3IP, 9.5H/9, 5.1K/9, 1.3K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 1.3HR/9,
: 1.506WHIP, 97ERA+
: SP-Jeff Niemann: 16IP, 10.1H/9, 7.9K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.5BB/9, 1.7HR/9, 1.625WHIP,
: 88ERA+
:
:
: OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE RAYS ROTATION?
:
: It's simply another dominating starting rotation in the AL East. The one
: thing that bothers me just a bit is that the Rays really don't have a #1
: starter. Kazmir is certainly a #1 starter in "stuff", but his durability is
: always going to be a factor it seems. If he can go 200+IP then this argument
: becomes a non-issue but if there is a knock on this rotation, it's that they
: don't have a real stopper at the top. They have some candidates in Kazmir,
: Price and even Garza; all have the goods to be a #1, but I think Garza &
: Price are still a bit too young and Kazmir dealt with injury problems yet
: again.

就很棒的先發輪值~  唯一缺憾是缺少了一個真正的#1 starter,　Kaz有#1的stuff但缺少
#1 的吃局數能力。除非Kaz今年能吃200+IP證明並不是那回事，否則光芒少了一張王牌始
終是事實。Kaz、Price甚至Garza都有能力做#1，但可惜前一個有傷而後兩個又有點太年
輕了。

:
: Best case is that this rotation dominates because it simply has too much
: talent not too. Worst case is that Kazmir has injury issues and Price goes
: about 120IP. That would be tough because you'd have a lot of the
: responsibilities thrust upon Shields, Sonnanstine and Garza with a couple of
: fill ins. I'm not sure Hammel & Niemann are going to be great and Wade Davis
: and Jake McGee probably aren't ready just yet.

明年的Best case是先發們實實在在地宰制美東；而worst case是Kaz受傷痛影響而Price
只吃了大約120IP，那樣的話會為剩下的Shields、Andy、Garza和替補帶來很大的壓力。
後備的Hammel和Niemann會投成怎樣還不確定，而 Wade Davis和Jake McGee看起來則是還
未準備好。

: Another factor to consider is
: how much better the rest of the AL East got in relation to Tampa Bay. The
: Yankees got CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett and also get a healthy Chien-Ming Wang
: back in 2009 with Joba Chamberlain at least starting the season healthy.
: Those are 4 starters the Rays didn't have to compete with last season. The
: Red Sox signed Brad Penny & John Smoltz while also having Clay Buchholz &
: Michael Bowden waiting to make an impact. Those are 4 pitchers Tampa didn't
: face last season either.
:
: Don't get me wrong. This is a great rotation to have, but there are some
: questions marks that should possibly be concerning for the Rays down the
: road. If this was any other division in baseball, it wouldn't really matter,
: but because Tampa plays in the same division as the Yankees & Red Sox, it
: changes things dramatically when trying to stay and keep being competitive.
:

另一個因素的是美東其他勁旅，洋基季後簽下的CC & AJ Burnett
還有健康的Wang + Joba，紅襪方面的Penny & Smoltz加上八扣子和Michael Bowden，
全部是都是小魚昨年沒有對上的投手。光芒的輪值的確是很好，和其他分區比較也是
首屈一指，可是當身在美東軍火庫， 即使一點點小問題都可能會造成很大影響。

:
: 2009 RAYS BULLPEN
:
: CL-Troy Percival: 45.7IP, 5.7H/9, 7.5K/9, 1.4K:BB, 5.3BB/9, 1.8HR/9,
: 1.226WHIP, 98ERA+
: RP-Dan Wheeler: 66.3IP, 6.0H/9, 7.2K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 1.4HR/9, 0.995WHIP,
: 142ERA+
: LP-J.P. Howell: 89.3IP, 6.2H/9, 9.3K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.131WHIP,
: 200ERA+
: RP-Grant Balfour: 58.3IP, 4.3H/9, 12.7K/9, 3.4K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.5HR/9,
: 0.891WHIP, 288ERA+
: RP-Chad Bradford: 59.3IP, 9.0H/9, 2.6K/9, 1.1K:BB, 2.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9,
: 1.247WHIP, 212ERA+
: RP-Joe Nelson: 54IP, 7.0H/9, 10.0K/9, 2.7K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 0.8HR/9, 1.185WHIP,
: 213ERA+
: RP-Juan Salas: 6.3IP, 7.1H/9, 11.4K/9, 2.0K:BB, 5.7BB/9, 0.0HR/9, 1.421WHIP,
: 63ERA+
: RP-Lance Cormier: 71.7IP, 9.8H/9, 5.8K/9, 1.4K:BB, 4.3BB/9, 0.5HR/9,
: 1.563WHIP, 113ERA+
: LP-Brian Shouse: 51.3IP, 8.1H/9, 5.8K/9, 2.4K:BB, 2.5BB/9, 0.9HR/9,
: 1.169WHIP, 153ERA+
:
: According to The Hardball Times's WPA (Wins Probability Added), the Rays had
: the best bullpen in the majors last season. They bring back the same pen
: although they've added guys like Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier and Brian Shouse
: to the mix. All are good pick-ups but it creates a log jam in the pen. The
: closer, Troy Percival, is the worst reliever on the team! How can a guy who
: gives up 2 bombs per 9IP and walks 5 per 9IP hold down a closer's job? It
: would seem putting in Percival is pouring gas on an already raging fire!

根據TBT的WPA，去年小魚有著全聯盟最好的牛棚。新一季除了去年的原班人馬外，還簽下
了Joe Nelson、Lance Cormier、Brian Shouse，令本來已經一流的牛棚更爆炸了 (按:能
用的已經有13人了)。本來的Closer Troy Percival看成績反而是最糟糕的後援　囧
找一個每9局5BB 2HR的投手頂closer似乎不是很明智的決定。

:
: When you think about the pen, you know that Howell, Bradford, Balfour,
: Wheeler and Nelson are automatic. That leaves only 2 spots. One is going to
: Percival when he's healthy because he's the closer leaving only one which I'm
: guessing goes to Shouse because he's left handed and JP Howell owns both
: righties and lefties. That leaves both Salas and Cormier out in the cold but
: it also doesn't allow room for a guy like Jason Hammel or Jeff Niemann to be
: a long man out of the pen in preparation for spot starts when the Rays will
: need them.

在開季的25人名單，
沒人質疑Howell, Bradford, Balfour, Wheeler, Nelson  5人將會是我們主力的RP群，
Closer Percy有機會留下，牛棚最後一個位子可能會給左投Shouse; 這代表沒進的人有
Salas、Cormier，也沒有機會讓能替補先發的Hammel和Niemann準備。

(按: 兩位替補先發都out of options了，能過waivers的機會看起來不大)


:
: Even so this is a NASTY pen. Howell & Balfour and downright FILTHY. Wheeler &
: Nelson are very solid if not as brutal on opposing hitters as Balfour &
: Howell. That leaves Chad Bradford who is effective in his own right along
: with LOOGY Brian Shouse. The closer's spot is Percival's but in all reality
: the big guy is going to be on the DL a bit so the closer's role probably
: falls to Dan Wheeler in that instance. Wheeler had 13 saves last season in
: Percival's absence.

儘管如此這仍然是一個超強力的牛棚。有超強力的Howell 和 Balfour，還有相當有實力
的Wheeler和Nelson，一人左Shouse和潛水艇Bradford，Closer暫時仍然是容易受傷的
Percy，進DL後大概會交給Wheeler關門。

:
: This is a great bullpen. The log jam creates quite a bit of depth with
: Cormier, Salas and Hammel ready to step in when needed. Still, I don't see
: how this pen doesn't shorten games to at least 6IP or even possibly 5IP to be
: honest. There isn't a weak link except for Percival and if the game is on the
: line I don't mind putting anyone in there except for maybe Shouse becasue if
: the game is on the line with a lefty up, I'd rather have JP Howell facing
: them down than Shouse. That's 6 pitchers you can put into high leverage
: situations at any time. Good grief that's awesome!
:

牛棚爆炸令深度大增，想憑這群RP在6局甚至5局就凍結比賽也不是不可能。除了Percy有
點抖，每一位投手都能獨當一面，關鍵的時候隨便推哪個出來也沒所謂。except for
Shouse, 即使接下來全都是左打，我覺得讓J.P. Howell上也比Shouse安心。有6個強
力後援在，沒在怕啦

:
:
: OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 RAYS
:
: The AL East is simply going to be a blood bath. I can't believe I'm saying
: this but I'm predicting that the Rays will finish in 3rd place in the AL East
: for 2009. That they'll win 90-games in my opinion is a no-brainer. Hell, if
: they won 93-94 games it still might only be good enough for 3rd place in the
: East. I think the Rays will score runs and I think they'll do a great job at
: preventing runs, but so goes for the Yankees & Red Sox too. One thing that
: really helped Tampa along in 2008 was New York being horribly down and the
: Red Sox running into some bad luck without having Josh Beckett healthy for
: almost the entire season. At this point both New York & Boston look ready to
: go and Tampa won't have that ace up their sleeve in 2009. They'll be an
: excellent baseball team and in reality right now they probably are one of the
: top-5 teams in the majors, but the problem is that 2 other teams in that
: top-5 play in the same division as Tampa Bay! Third place! Wow.

美東戰區會有一番血戰是肯定的了，說出來或許會被打，不過大概Rays會拿90勝以上而最
後名列第三吧，老實說在美東拿93-94可能也只能第三。Rays在得分和防守會表現很好，
不過洋基紅襪也不是蓋的。08年小魚傳奇是靠著天時地利人和，09年要應付兩隊的完整陣
容，又少了一個王牌壓場，長成的小魚明年大概會是聯盟Top 5 teams的其中一隊吧，
只是…………………

   → immortalqq  :全MLB前五強有前三強在美東 囧




Third place! Wow.

--
終於翻譯完了，累死我了 (／‵Д′)／~ ╧╧
到後面一整個亂翻    囧

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 137.189.99.122
→ immortalqq  :用心推 我原本回到家還要翻的 感謝接力
※ 編輯: catsondbs       來自: 137.189.99.122       (02/05 22:13)
推 IVIVI       :感謝翻譯！不過如果照作者說的美東前三都有90勝 那其
→ IVIVI       :它隊還打什麼 況且又都分屬同區互相對上的機會較多
→ IVIVI       :實在不太可能出現三家通吃的情況！
推 OoyaoO      :美東就算前三都90+勝還是只有兩隊可以進季後阿 這很
→ OoyaoO      :殘酷 進季後就不一定了 NL季後門票戰績最差的躲人都
→ OoyaoO      :可以把最好的Cubs給三戰清盤了