[翻譯]BP Lies,Damned Lies-The Contender Rotation

[dadaHOPE (Idiot也強過偽君子)]

BP的Nate Silver這篇新文章,在講哪支球隊有最好的季後賽輪值,作者用來評斷的指標是
QERA,這個數值單純的用投手的三振率,保送率和滾飛比三項指標來計算,因為這三項表現是
最不容易受到球場或聯盟的不同而改變的

If you want to translate QERA into everyday language, you would do fairly
well with the following:

QERA             Description
3.50 or less     #1 starter
3.50-4.00        #2 starter
4.00-4.50        #3 starter
4.50-5.00        #4 starter
5.00+            #5 starter

最後排名的依據有兩項,分別是"September"跟"October"

September是常規賽的投手表現,1-4號投手佔同樣比重,五號投手的成績則要打對半,因為他
們常被跳過輪值

October指標是指若球隊能晉級季後賽,考量到季後賽top-rotation的重要性
評分將變成 ACE  x 31%
           No.2 x 28%
           No.3 x 23%
           No.4 x 18%
           No.5 -----

而咱們紅襪的排名:

1. Red Sox                              2.Padres   11.Mets
                                        3.Indians  12.M's
Beckett    2.98                         4.NYY      13.Phillies
Matzusaka  3.68                         5.Angels   14.Dback
Schilling  3.90                         6.Tigers   15.Cardinals
Wakefield  4.85                         7.Brewers  16.Rockies
Tavarez    4.54                         8.Braves
September  3.93                         9.Dodgers
October    3.72                        10.Cubs

作者對紅襪輪值的評論:
I won’t have too many complaints if Josh Beckett wins the Cy Young Award
this year. He has the best QERA of any likely playoff starter in either
league, although he’s slightly behind Erik Bedard (2.48) and Johan Santana
(2.81) among non-contenders.

如果Beckett今年拿下賽揚獎我也不會有太多抱怨,因為現在的他是所有可能進季後賽
投手中QERA最出色的,贏過他的人叫Bedard跟Santana.

The Red Sox’ rotation isn’t entirely without risk, since you can envision
scenarios where any of Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Schilling are tired or
unavailable come October, but if healthy it’s a tremendous group, and
Tim Wakefield is an outstanding insurance policy because of his ability to
pitch on any number of days of rest (like any DIPS-based metric, QERA
underrates knuckleballers because they have systematically low BABIPs).

當然紅襪的輪值也不是沒有隱憂,Beckett.Matsuzaka.Schilling可能在季賽會過度的操勞
不過當他們健康時絕對是非常堅強的組合.更不用說Wakefield這枚能休息短天數的活棋.
(老蝴蝶的QERA因為較低的BABIP而被低估了)

The Red Sox have some real incentives to lock up their playoff spot as soon as
possible, because that means they can put Beckett, Dice-K, and Schilling on a
90- or 100-pitch leash in the last couple of weeks of September.

由於勝差的關係,紅襪有很好的機會在季後賽維持這個陣容,因為他們可以在九月的最後幾
週盡量降低前三號先發的工作量.

            Sep.3rd   article by Nate Silver ,an author of Baseball Prospectus.


--
"You really need to consider the message you're sending this boys by ending
the lockout. It's the same message that we as a culture send to our
professional athletes; and that is that they are above the law. If these boys
cannot honor the simple rules of a basketball contract, how long do you think
it will be before they're out there breaking the law?"
                                                       -Coach Carter.

--
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※ 編輯: dadaHOPE        來自: 61.228.151.39        (09/05 01:06)
→ dadaHOPE:我們在September,October兩項都是第一
推 nicknhit:感謝翻譯
推 mickylalala: 翻譯感謝 :)
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推 roverchi:推！