作者Kisugi ()
看板RedSox
標題[討論] 從cFIP來看先發輪值
時間Thu Dec 18 07:24:58 2008
我們都知道選手在場上的貢獻=實力X"運氣"X"Clutch"
"運氣":在這裡通常是指每年變動率大 無法複製
甚至 少數統計上的例外
個人一直蠻喜歡用xFIP來看選手的"實力"
FIP=(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP
xFIP為FIP對HR作修正後的數值
但 個人覺得還有一些地方可以修正 以降低"運氣"成分
以下是我個人興趣修正的FIP(cFIP)
IP:運氣好一點可以多吃幾局 我用PA取代
另外 被打出去的球基本上可分為五類
GB FB LD IF BT
我將變動率大的LD HR/FB IF/F 用美聯先發投手的平均做校正
最後 將幾乎必死的IF*2加入FIP公式中(其實是減)
cFIP=13*(HR/FB)avg*[cFB%]+3*[uBB%]+3*[HBP%]-2*K%-2*[cIF%]
[cIF%]={[100-(LD%)avg-BT%]*[(X)avg]/(W+1)}*(Batted)/PA
[cFB%]={[100-(LD%)avg-BT%]*[1-(X)avg]/(W+1)}*(Batted)/PA
(X)avg=IF/(IF+FB), W=GB/(IF+FB)
avg:該年聯盟先發投手的平均
缺點:沒有考慮GB和外野飛球(非HR) 這樣會低估強力滾地球投手 例如:Halladay Wang
Webb...
這類型投手的GB被打擊率可低達2成 而聯盟平均為2成4到5
個人不太喜歡tRA類的數據 它將各種事件的比例 依照聯盟平均去"預期"會有啥結果 但
第一:有些事件的比重 逐年差異很大 如:LD
LD一多 照tRA公式必定變成豬頭
第二:並非每種事件出局率都會依照聯盟平均回歸 例如上述的GB被打擊率
我取該年PA前70(80)多的美(國)聯投手當作各隊輪值 以cFIP排序如下:
09 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Halladay Lee Bergesen Perkins Palmer
2 Lester Lackey Weaver小 Feldman Smith
3 Greinke Slowey Danks Penny Galarraga
4 Verlander Baker Porcello Cecil Tallet
5 Beckett Garza Buehrle Hunter Cahill
6 Hernandez Romero Richmond Sonnanstine Carmona
7 Anderson Buchholz Liriano McCarthy Huff
8 Bedard Burnett Blackburn Kazmir Berken
9 Floyd Hochevar Meche Braden Davies
10 Sabathia Jackson Niemann Saunders Guthrie
11 Gonzalez Bannister Washburn Millwood Laffey
12 Shields Holland Price Vargas Wakefield
13 Pavano Contreras Chamberlain Padilla D.Hernandez
14 Pavano Pettitte E.Santana Mazzaro Sowers
08 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Halladay Lackey Galarraga Padilla Laffey
2 Beckett Meche Litsch Hochevar Jackson
3 Sabathia Kazmir Robertson Eveland Harrison
4 E.Santana Buehrle Contreras 松坂大輔 Ponson
5 Mussina Baker Garza Garland Olson
6 Lee Weaver小 Floyd L.Hernandez Feldman
7 Burnett Millwood Blackburn Bannister Dickey
8 Greinke Sonnanstine 王建民 Sowers Smith
9 Pettitte Lester Guthrie Rasner Rogers
10 Vazquez Marcum Bedard Davies Burres
11 Slowey Duchscherer Verlander Perkins Cabrera
12 Shields Liriano Silva Byrd Carmona
13 Hernandez Buchholz Blanton Washburn Liz
14 Danks McGowan Saunders Wakefield Batista
07 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Bedard Carmona Bonser Robertson Washburn
2 Beckett Blanton Buehrle Danks Litsch
3 Hernandez Towers 白嗟承 E.Santana Oda.Perez
4 J.Santana Schilling Clemens Byrd Burres
5 Sabathia Sonnanstine Westbrook Tavarez Padilla
6 Vazquez Escobar Colon Cabrera DiNardo
7 Burnett Meche Saunders Jackson Lee
8 Shields 松坂大輔 Mussina De La Rosa Durbin
9 Kazmir Verlander Marcum Garland Ramirez
10 Haren Guthrie Weaver小 Batista Kennedy
11 Bonderman Baker Gaudin Weaver大 McCarthy
12 McGowan Pettitte Millwood Contreras Tejeda
13 Halladay 王建民 Silva Wakefield Maroth
14 Lackey Garza Loe Bannister Trachsel
06 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Liriano Shields Robertson Buehrle Saarloos
2 J.Santana Escobar Weaver大 Loe Benson
3 Kazmir Vazquez Garcia Rogers Wakefield
4 Schilling Lackey Loaiza Byrd Zito
5 Bonderman Westbrook Miner Sowers Lester
6 Hernandez R.Johnson Garland Blanton Jar.Wright
7 Halladay Weaver小 L.Hudson Silva Redman
8 Sabathia 王建民 Janssen E.Santana Koronka
9 Mussina Lopez Radke Washburn Corcoran
10 Burnett Contreras Ja.Johnson Moyer 徐在應
11 Haren Baker Meche Lee Chacin
12 Bedard Lilly Verlander Hendrickson R.Hernandez
13 Bonser Beckett Loewen Pineiro McClung
14 Millwood Padilla Cabrera Fossum Elarton
05 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Hernandez Westbrook Clement Ponson Moyer
2 J.Santana Radke 王建民 朴贊浩 Washburn
3 Halladay Silva Ja.Johnson Lopez Elarton
4 R.Johnson Garcia Maroth Waechter O.Hernandez
5 Harden Bedard Bush E.Santana Saarloos
6 Lackey Towers Wakefield Greinke W.Miller
7 Haren Young Kazmir Fossum Franklin
8 Sabathia Pavano Pineiro Douglass Arroyo
9 Buehrle Brown Byrd Lilly Carrasco
10 D.Wells Cabrera Zito Howell Sele
11 Millwood Lee Hendrickson Rogers Lima
12 Colon Garland Chen McClung Meche
13 Bonderman Contreras Lohse Chacin R.Hernandez
14 Mussina Robertson Blanton Mays 野茂英雄
04 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 J.Santana Westbrook M.Wood Lee Knotts
2 Schilling Pineiro Vazquez Hendrickson Redman
3 Garcia Garcia Bush Washburn Elarton
4 Martinez Lopez Silva May Batista
5 Halladay Greinke Ponson J.Davis Bell
6 Mussina O.Hernandez Sabathia Moyer Franklin
7 Lieber Ja.Johnson Zito Bedard J.Miller
8 Radke Arroyo Lilly Towers Anderson
9 Buehrle Lackey Contreras Garland V.Zambrano
10 Bonderman Brown Maroth 朴贊浩 Gobble
11 Escobar Lowe Rogers Schoeneweis Sele
12 Robertson Mulder Meche Wakefield Brazelton
13 Hudson Drese Loaiza Lohse Cabrera
14 Harden Colon Mulholland Dickey Hentgen
03 AL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Halladay D.Wells Hendrickson Moyer Lewis
2 Martinez Radke Bonderman Weaver大 Franklin
3 Mussina Escobar Daal Ja.Johnson V.Zambrano
4 Pettitte Lowe Garcia Zito R.Hernandez
5 Loaiza Colon Buehrle Garland Knotts
6 Mulder Sabathia Affeldt Hentgen Bernero
7 Hudson Wakefield Anderson Washburn Ortiz
8 Clemens Lopez J.Davis May George
9 J.Santana Lackey Snyder Valdez Appier
10 S.Shields Pineiro Reed Helling Bell
11 Traber Lohse Burkett Mays Sosa
12 Thomson Lidle Benoit Westbrook G.Gonzalez
13 Ponson Meche Maroth Kennedy Lima
14 Lilly Rogers R.Rodriguez Cornejo Sele
09 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Vazquez Lilly Mock Pelfrey Bush
2 Lincecum Hammel Cain Parra Morton
3 Haren Dempster Wolf Moehler Garland
4 Nolasco Gallardo Maholm Happ Detwiler
5 Peavy De La Rosa Lowe Marquis D.Davis
6 Jo.Johnson Paulino Zambrano Stammen L.Hernandez
7 Wainwright Harang R.Wells Arroyo West
8 Carpenter Scherzer Cook A.Sanchez Moyer
9 Zimmermann Oswalt Hampton Cueto Wellemeyer
10 Harden J.Santana Gaudin 川上憲伸 Redding
11 Rodriguez Billingsley Volstad A.Miller Maine
12 黒田博樹 Kershaw Lohse Geer Martin
13 Hamels Hanson Jurrjens Bailey Suppan
14 Jimenez Blanton Zito Lannan Snell
15 R.Johnson J.Sanchez Duke Ohlendorf Owings
16 Pineiro Correia Petit Looper Martis
08 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Sabathia Dempster Cook Maine Bergmann
2 Haren Hudson Oda.Perez Wellemeyer Suppan
3 Lincecum Volquez Jimenez Moehler Backe
4 Lowe Kershaw Pineiro Zambrano Snell
5 Webb 黒田博樹 Campillo Moyer Marquis
6 Nolasco Maddux Wolf Jo.Reyes Morton
7 R.Johnson Parra D.Davis Francis Blanton
8 Hamels De La Rosa 白嗟承 Duke Penny
9 Jo.Johnson Jurrjens Cueto Bush Eaton
10 Billingsley Wainwright A.Miller Young Balester
11 J.Santana Maholm Lannan Pelfrey Correia
12 Oswalt Arroyo Looper Redding Banks
13 Peavy Harang Volstad Hendrickson Chacon
14 Rodriguez Lohse Cain Olsen Kendrick
15 Myers Lilly Hampton Owings Zito
16 Sheets J.Sanchez Martinez Oli.Perez Gorzelanny
07 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Smoltz Rodriguez Oli.Perez Willis Sampson
2 Peavy Hendrickson Young Vanden Hurk W.Williams
3 Hamels Maine Cain Gorzelanny Sosa
4 Webb Wolf Wainwright Vargas Tomko
5 Harang Bush Cook Bergmann A.Reyes
6 Lowe Belisle Zambrano Kendrick Fogg
7 Lincecum Mitre Arroyo Lohse Davies
8 Hudson Capuano Morris James Hirsh
9 Gallardo Sheets Carlyle Owings Glavine
10 Oswalt Maholm Germano Olsen Bacsik
11 Maddux Lopez Moyer K.Wells Redding
12 S.Hill Billingsley D.Davis Albers B.Thompson
13 Snell Marshall Duke Marquis Eaton
14 R.Hill Jimenez Jennings Looper Lowry
15 Francis Penny Suppan Zito L.Hernandez
16 Lilly O.Hernandez D.Wells 金炳賢 Chico
06 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Sheets Snell E.Ramirez Francis James
2 Webb Jo.Johnson Maine Sele Ortiz
3 Carpenter Penny Duke D.Davis W.Williams
4 Peavy Lidle Cain Suppan Weaver大
5 Smoltz Arroyo Willis Fogg Milton
6 Hamels Olsen Santos E.Gonzalez Marshall
7 Clemens Lieber R.Hill Jam.Wright Armas
8 Oswalt O.Hernandez 朴贊浩 A.Reyes M.Thompson
9 Harang Hudson Vargas Batista Billingsley
10 Myers Zambrano Young Claussen 大家友和
11 Pettitte 金炳賢 Nolasco Tomko Lowry
12 Maddux Cook Mulder Thomson Astacio
13 Bush T.Buchholz Jennings L.Hernandez OConnor
14 Martinez Glavine Maholm A.Sanchez Marquis
15 Lowe Schmidt Morris Moehler Trachsel
16 Capuano Hensley Rodriguez Madson Oli.Perez
05 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Peavy C.Zambrano Moehler L.Hernandez Jennings
2 Carpenter Lieber Lowry 金炳賢 Backe
3 Webb Lidle Thomson Ortiz V.Zambrano
4 Martinez Loaiza Schmidt Francis Stauffer
5 Sheets D.Davis Cook Marquis Jam.Wright
6 Pettitte Willis Redman W.Williams K.Wells
7 Prior Patterson Rusch Houlton Hennessey
8 Clemens Oda.Perez Mulder Halsey D.Williams
9 Vazquez Penny Vargas Padilla Kennedy
10 Burnett Morris Glavine Milton J.Williams
11 Myers Harang Lawrence Fogg Oli.Perez
12 Oswalt 徐在應 Capuano Estes 石井一久
13 Smoltz Eaton Tomko Santos Armas
14 Lowe 大家友和 Suppan Sosa Rueter
15 Maddux Hudson Benson Ramirez Leiter
16 Beckett Weaver大 Claussen Rodriguez Ru.Ortiz
04 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Sheets Penny Willis Fossum Cook
2 R.Johnson Lowry Byrd Day Trachsel
3 Schmidt D.Wells Lidle Santos Fogg
4 Carpenter Jar.Wright Webb Benson Ru.Ortiz
5 Clemens Pavano Eaton W.Williams Estes
6 Pettitte Zambrano Acevedo Wolf Rueter
7 Peavy Millwood Kennedy 金善宇 Obermueller
8 Oli.Perez Thomson Padilla Milton Redding
9 Prior Morris Munro Wilson Leiter
10 Maddux D.Davis Capuano Hampton Vogelsong
11 Burnett Rusch K.Wells Suppan 徐在應
12 Beckett L.Hernandez Weaver大 Jennings Sparks
13 Clement Lawrence Glavine Tomko Valdez
14 Oswalt Lima Patterson W.Miller Jam.Wright
15 K.Wood Harang Hermanson J.Williams 野茂英雄
16 Oda.Perez Marquis Myers 大家友和 石井一久
03 NL
1 2 3 4 5
1 Schilling Alvarez Torres DAmico Oliver
2 Prior Clement W.Williams Villone Dempster
3 Brown Zambrano Oli.Perez Ramirez Foppert
4 R.Johnson Willis Lawrence J.Robertson 石井一久
5 Vazquez Millwood 野茂英雄 Reynolds Chacon
6 Schmidt 大家友和 Tomko Jennings Heilman
7 Webb Wolf Padilla Estes Simontacchi
8 Beckett Penny Rusch Benson Duckworth
9 Oswalt K.Wells 徐在應 Haren Vargas
10 Oda.Perez Myers J.Williams Trachsel Rueter
11 K.Wood Suppan Jarvis Leiter Cook
12 Maddux Pavano Peavy Ru.Ortiz Stephenson
13 L.Hernandez Eaton Hampton Day Haynes
14 Sheets Redman Redding Glavine W.Franklin
15 Batista W.Miller Kinney Fogg Moss
16 Morris Dessens Wilson Graves Stark
一點無聊的心得 歡迎討論!!!
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◆ From: 140.112.54.102
推 Dorasaga:great, but... 12/18 08:31
→ Dorasaga:我看不到你的算式... 12/18 08:32
→ Dorasaga:還有, 你拿LD以及BT做什麼? 我是不知道他們correlate... 12/18 08:33
→ Kisugi:Batted ball-LD(avg)-BT剩下的用滾飛比 分掉 12/18 09:06
→ Kisugi:另外 Joba=Beckett Masterson=Wakefield 12/18 13:59
推 Belladonaa:A投手 IP 221.3, BFP 957 12/18 22:57
→ Belladonaa:B投手 IP 223.3, BFP 891 12/18 22:57
→ Belladonaa:A投手多面對66次打者 但是局數差不多 12/18 22:59
→ Belladonaa:IP的意義是出局數 同樣的BFP 越多出局數代表投手越強 12/18 23:02
→ Belladonaa:而不是"運氣好一點可以多吃幾局" 12/18 23:03
→ Kisugi:你誤會我的意思了... IP其實是"結果" 也就是比較偏貢獻 12/19 05:37
→ Kisugi:要檢視投球內容 逐一PA來看是最好的 我想是我表達的不好... 12/19 05:39
→ Dorasaga:好像懂又不懂...要不要公佈算式? 12/19 08:34
→ Dorasaga:*LD(avg)是說聯盟平均?? 12/19 08:34
※ 編輯: Kisugi 來自: 140.112.54.100 (04/04 03:12)