Source: Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
Sean Smith’s CHONE projections
Offense
Team PA AVG OBP SLG OUTs BR RS
NYA 6309 .272 .350 .446 4100 865 -11
BOS 6363 .271 .356 .443 4100 882 7
TBA 6258 .264 .345 .418 4100 807 24
TOR 6051 .260 .322 .406 4100 712 39
BAL 6071 .267 .336 .422 4100 779 3
BR Batting runs using linear weights.
RS Runs saved compared to average on defense using CHONE’s projections
Pitching
Team IP Hits BB SO HR R ERA FIP
NYA 1442 1425 515 1273 139 687 3.96 3.87
BOS 1442 1434 541 1200 151 713 4.12 4.14
TBA 1442 1399 499 1181 166 693 4.00 4.21
TOR 1442 1461 505 1111 156 721 4.16 4.25
BAL 1442 1521 655 1019 183 832 4.80 4.92
Overall
Team RS RA PythW PythL OppW% RevW RevL
NYA 865 687 99 63 .534 96 66
BOS 882 713 97 65 .537 94 68
TBA 807 693 93 69 .543 90 72
TOR 712 721 80 82 .563 75 87
BAL 779 832 76 86 .569 71 91
RS: Runs scored
RA: Runs allowed
Pyth W: PythagenPat Wins
Pyth L: PythagenPat losses
Opp W%: Projected winning percentage for the other four teams in the division
I use this to calculate an AL East penalty for each team’s record. Which is
38 - Opp W% times 76. That works out to:
NYA (-2.6)
BOS (-2.8)
TBA (-3.3)
TOR (-4.8)
BAL (-5.3)
I add that to the PythagenPat wins to get a revised win/loss record.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.64.5
※ 編輯: Belladonaa 來自: 118.160.64.5 (12/30 20:18)
※ 編輯: Belladonaa 來自: 118.160.64.5 (12/30 20:20)