推 DWoods:帥哥GM的好，席林姊最知道~ 01/19 17:25
推 aloha888:對阿 讓席林姊躺著賺一年 XD 01/19 18:04
推 albertjet:讓Schlling躺著賺一年也還好，畢竟他給紅襪的不只那些 01/19 23:58
→ JoshBeckeet:樓上說的不錯 01/19 23:59
推 digimaster:他去年還幫超賽酸湖人 01/20 00:05
By Curt Schilling
There have been huge volumes of discussion this winter about someone I’m
very close to and care a lot about. There is much division in Sox Nation
about bringing - or not bringing - Jason Varitek back and what he really
means to a staff, and a team.
It’s simpler than some might think if you reverse engineer this.
Let’s take the “No Tek” approach. There are three (for simplicity sake)
possible outcomes.
1) The staff gets better with two new catchers and excels and they win a ton
of games.
2) The staff stays somewhat similar and no one excels or declines to any
serious degree
3) The staff is worse, some guys stay somewhat the same, a bunch of guys have
inconsistent seasons.
The “X factor” in all this is John Farrell. Were it not for John I don’t
think this discussion would be happening, Tek would be signed and he’d be
tasked with bringing along the next catcher for this franchise. John is the
best pitching coach alive (though Dick Bosman and Mark Connor rank right up
there, and Bob Welch was awesome). John brings a ton of things to the table
that few others do and if Tek is not back his workload will triple (at least)
and he’ll have much more coaching to do and preparation as well. I think
John makes outcome No. 3 less likely but he alone will be hard pressed to
make No. 1 happen without major contributions from behind the plate. Any
staff will/would/does have issues making No. 1 happen without a catcher
behind the plate that knows lineups and prepares to the degree Tek does. I’d
be interested, and my inclination is to make a bet, that in the last 15 years
the amount of teams that have won World Series with a brand new No. 1
starting catcher, or a duo that splits catching duties, both new to the team,
is minimal.
Actually I’ll check that out right now…
1995
Atlanta: Javy Lopez (after 80 some odd games in 1994) and Charlie O’Brien
(VERY veteran presence).
Cleveland: Sandy Alomar (veteran who had been there) and Tony Pena (Vet).
1996
Atlanta: Javy Lopez and Eddie Perez.
New York: Joe Girardi (AH! First year with team, but a very game-oriented
veteran catcher, known for commanding a staff) and a young, very young
Posada. I think Leyritz might have caught some games.
1997
Florida: Charles Johnson (third year with the team) and a young Greg Zaun.
Cleveland: Sandy Alomar (Vet).
1998
San Diego: Carlos Hernandez (Second year with team) and Greg Myers (Vet).
New York: Jorge Posada with Girardi now backing him up
1999
Atlanta: Eddie Perez/Lopez and Greg Myers (Perez and Lopez had been there a
few years at this point).
New York: Posada with Girardi
2000
New York: Posada caught about every frickin’ game.
New York Mets: Piazza, in his third year with the team, backed up by Todd
Pratt (veteran who was very well known for his game calling. Having known him
since 1988 I can promise you he was into handling a pitching staff).
2001
Arizona: Damien Miller in his third year backed up by Rod Barajas.
New York: Posada backed up with some Joe Oliver and Bobby Estellela.
2002
Anaheim: Bengie Molina in his first year, backed up by Shawn Wooten.
San Francisco: Benito Santiago (his second year with SF), with Yorvit
Torrealba.
2003
Florida Pudge Rodriguez in his first year backed up by Mike Redmond, who had
been there a long time.
New York: Posada (shocker!) backed up by Flaherty.
2004
Boston: Tek and Dougie
St Louis: Matheny in his fifth year backed up by a Molina brother.
2005
Chicago: AJP in his first year, backed up by Widger.
Houston: Ausmus in his 5th year.
2006
St Louis: Molina now starting after a few years, backed by Bennett.
Detroit: Pudge in his second year, backed by Vance Wilson
2007
Boston: Tek and Doug again.
Colorado: Y Torrealba in his second season.
2008
Philadelphia: Ruiz and Costa both in their third years
Tampa: Navarro in his third season.
It’s not exactly the best study, but in the past 14 years, of the 28 World
Series teams, three have made it with their starting catcher being a
first-year to the organization guy, none with rookies as starters and no team
with two new catchers to the organization.
And make no mistake about it, this team is about winning the World Series.
Can it be done without Tek? Sure it can.
But in my opinion it’s going to be far harder to win without him than with
him. I don’t care if the new guy hit .350, the issue is behind the plate.
This staff can win, it has immense talent but three are so many factors that
are going to be thrown into the mix that a guy like Tek can help smooth out.
Dice is spending most of the spring away from the team. Penny, Smoltz, both
will be on different schedules. You’ve got a stable of young arms that have
matured under Farrell AND Tek that having Tek back there would, again, in my
opinion ONLY, only continue that progression.
There are quite a few new arms here that will take some getting used to, and
no one that I have ever thrown to gets into a pitcher and his rhythms better
than Jason. Add to that his reputation - which is not a myth, guys around
baseball know Tek is good and know how much the staff loves throwing to him -
and how many other catchers get talked about in that sense? Few.
The thing I can speak from experience to is getting to know your new catcher,
and getting comfortable. They are two very different things. I put a ton of
time and effort into getting comfortable with a new catcher more so than
anything. Rhythm is such a huge part of the game to many pitchers, me
included, that I needed to be in a flow and did not want to be out there
shaking off and calling time outs during games.
Could Josh win 20 without Tek? Absolutely. Could Lester continue to get
better? I bet he will. But that, and so many other things are much easier
roads to travel WITH him catching as opposed to him not catching.
If a month into camp there is trouble with the staff synching up and getting
comfortable with the catcher, then what? I know that questions been asked and
answered internally and I am 100 percent sure they know what they want to do,
but I am just speculating and hoping to see Tek back here.
So then you go the other route, with Tek …
1) The staff gets better, Tek hits .220 again.
2) The staff gets better, Tek hits .250.
3) The staff gets better, Tek has another 2004 like season.
That’s the only three outcomes I can see happening. Obviously much hinges on
health and some things outside the teams control, but this staff WILL NOT get
worse with Jason catching, it just won’t. There is too much time, effort and
preparation on his part to become ‘worse’ as a game caller and
staff-handler. Oh, and another thing, all of you defensive folks talking
about base stealing and runners being caught, that’s a horsecrap stat
because stolen bases are taken off pitchers, not catchers. Baserunners steal
because pitchers don’t hold, or don’t pay attention, or aren’t quick to
home. With the rare exception catchers throw out baserunners when given
enough time. Tek’s times to second base weren’t down last year, or the year
before. Runners stole off the staff, they almost always do.
My bet is Jason does NOT hit .220, maybe not .290 but I would take any bet
that has me with him hitting closer to .290 than .220. After talking to him
and hearing him talk about his body, his swing and his mind-set, I’d be real
comfortable saying he’s a guy much more likely to hit .265 with 20 HR than
.220 with 10.
In my mind it’s going to be the piece that finishes the puzzle for this
team. Thinking of an October rotation consisting of a healthy Beckett,
Smoltz, Lester, Penny and Dice with Paps at the back end and Tek running the
show is going to make ANY team - ANY team - in the post season hope for
another match up until they absolutely HAVE to meet Boston.
Addendum Something that went unmentioned, and probably shouldn’t have. Scott
Boras is the reason this situation exists, of that there can be no mistake.
He obviously advised his client to refuse arbitration, believing he was going
to work his magic, and that failed. I don’t think for a second Tek would
absolve himself of blame here either, ultimately it’s his decision.
I am past that part of it, because it is meaningless at this point. He
refused arbitration, Scott failed to get a multi-year deal, it’s January
16th, he hasn’t signed, the Sox don’t have their #1 catcher. I just was
making the observation that I think both sides want this to happen, Boston
for the ‘right price’, Tek for ‘a price’ that isn’t league minimum and
!!!!WARNING THIS IS A PERSONAL OPINION ONLY!!!!! maybe a shot at a 2nd year
if he performs well. He wants to be here, they want him to be here and they
have been able to take significant money off the books. It’s a win-win for
both sides if you get Tek and Theo in the same room imo.
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