2009 BOSTON RED SOX SEASON PREVIEW

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Sunday, January 25, 2009  by  Baseball Savant


With so many free agents available it's somewhat difficult to do the previews
because I'm not 100% sure how things will play out, but it's unlikely the Red
Sox are going to be in on any moves now with the possible exception of
bringing Jason Varitek back into the fold which seems like a likely happening
for Red Sox Nation.

It's really amazing how the Red Sox have evolved over time. I sometimes still
think of them in regards to their 2004 World Series championship and it's
amazing to see how much they've changed. That was a team of Manny Ramirez,
Bill Mueller, Johnny Damon, Kevin Millar, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez,
Keith Foulke, Bronson Arroyo, Derek Lowe and Nomar Garciaparra before he got
traded. The 2007 team was vastly different from that. Schilling, Varitek,
Ramirez & Ortiz were still around but that was about it to be honest. The
rest of the team had completely turned over.

Last year the remaing vestiges of those 2 World Series championship teams
were gone. Manny Ramirez was off to La-La Land while Curt Schilling was
decimated by injuries which may have ended his career probably a bit more
than he wanted. A lot of guys are still around from the 2007 championship
team, but from the 2004 squad, there is hardly a guy around. Even Varitek as
of this writing isn't a member of the Boston Red Sox. Only Big Papi remains
from 2004. It's interesting to say the least.

2008 was a good year for Boston. They won 95-games, beat the Angels in the
ALDS and took Tampa Bay to 7-games in the ALCS. At some point the luck Boston
was used to would wear thin. Boston was down 3-0 against the Yankees in the
2004 ALCS before making history with 4 straight wins. They were down 3-1 in
the ALCS to the Indians in 2007 before winning 3-straight en route to their
2nd World Series title in 4-years. Last year the Rays had Boston down 3-1
before Boston won 2 games forcing a game-7 in Tampa which brought back huge
memories of the year before when Boston went back to Boston for a game-7 and
won.

The luck ran out due to what happened in the 2008 ALCS. The Sox took Game 1
2-0 from the Rays in Tampa Bay giving home field back to Boston. In Game 2
the Sox went into extra innings and came out a 9-8 loser. Justice was
somewhat served as Josh Beckett go hammered! Tampa took game 3 9-1 and Tampa
took game 4 13-4! It's always easy to play devil's advocate but what if
Boston wins Game-2? Does Tampa still have that momentum going forward to push
them up 3-1? Or does Boston now simply finish off a young team getting their
first taste of postseason play?

The momentum took a dramatic shift in Game 5 when Tampa got out to a 7-0 lead
going into the bottom of the 7th inning! Game over right? WRONG! Boston
scored 8 runs in the final 3-innings to put Boston up 8-7 and take game 5.
Boston takes Game-6 4-2 to force a Game-7 in which Tampa closes it out 3-1.
Lady Luck ran out on the Red Sox.

This off season has been very interesting for the Red Sox. They missed out on
Mark Teixeira, the only player they really needed in the free agent pool. I
shouldn't say "Need" because the Sox probably don't need anyone with the team
as constructed, but they could have used another bat protecting Ortiz and
signing Teixeira would have dealt with the looming problem of Mike Lowell
who'll be gone after this season. They could have then had Teixeira at 1B and
Youkilis back at 3B and all would be well.

Instead the Sox made some very interesting moves that gave them tremendous
depth. They brought in guys like John Smoltz, Brad Penny and Takashi Saito to
give tremendous depth to the rotation and bullpen. They brought back Mark
Kotsay to the bench and signed former Ray Rocco Baldelli to add depth to
their outfield and bench. Gone is Coco Crisp in CF who is off to Kansas City
while Jacoby Ellsbury finally gets full playing time out in center. These
were interesting moves. Penny & Smoltz are in on 1-year deals with
performance bonuses. Saito is in on a 1-year deal with a club option for
2010. Rocco Baldelli is in for 1-year. Josh Bard is in for a year with a club
option for 2010. Kotsay is in on a one-year deal.

It's a really interesting way to do things. By signing both Smoltz & Penny
the Red Sox are essentially saying they are going to have injury problems in
the rotation. That's pretty interesting to hear given they have Wakefield,
Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka in the rotation. I find it hard to believe that
Wakefield or Matsuzaka are going to be hurt which leaves Lester & Beckett.
Unfortunately those are probably the two best pitchers so if they are down
Boston is going to be hurting. Simultaneously, it's not like Penny or Smoltz
are pictures of health themselves. Signing Saito gives Boston some serious
depth and I suppose if they needed to, bringing Smoltz back to the bullpen
wouldn't be awful really given how much success he had there during his time
in Atlanta.

What it certainly does is give time for guys like Clay Buchholz and possibly
Justin Masterson time to ply their trades in the minor leagues assuming of
course the Sox want to keep Masterson in the rotation. It also takes some
heat off of prospect Michael Bowden. He'll be 22-years old this season and
had a good year in AA in 2008, but my guess is that Boston would like him to
stick in AAA Pawtucket in 2009 before making a splash in 2010.

I think Boston is basically just waiting around. They have A LOT of pieces in
place and now it'll just be time to consider what happens. Pedroia, Ellsbury
& Youkilis are already in place. They are probably keeping 1B open for Lars
Anderson at 1B which is probably why Teixeira isn't in Boston. Lester is
already in the rotation and Buchholz & Bowden aren't far behind. Papelbon is
in the pen and you have a dynamic core of homegrown talent that Boston can
use to win more championships. It'll definitely be interesting going foward.
Let's take a look at the players for 2009.


2009 RED SOX STARTING LINEUP

C-Jason Varitek: 220/313/359; 13HR, 20-2B, 43RBI, 8.1AB/BB, 0SB, 73OPS+

Getting to be a brutal player. The Red Sox haven't signed him yet, but I bet
they will and if Varitek cons them into giving him a 2-year deal then it's
one datapoint for Epstein & Co. that isn't working out so well. When you
think about it, how much worse off could a Bard/Kottaras platoon be than a
healthy Varitek? He's 37-years old which is way past your prime for a
catcher, but unfortunatley for him, he never really had the offensive skill
set that Jorge Posada brought to the table. It's probably why Posada is still
contributing and Varitek is most likely a backup catcher at this point. It's
not necessarily a bad thing. Varitek has been an All-Star 3 times and has 2
rings. He's been a good catcher for quite awhile but all things come to an
end.


1B-Kevin Youkilis: 312/390/569; 29HR, 43-2B, 115RBI, 8.7AB/BB, 3SB, 143OPS+

Meet the real MVP of the Red Sox last season. He had more homers, a better
OPS, a better OBP%, a better SLG%, better plate discipline, and more RBI yet
Pedroia won the AL MVP and Youkilis finished 3rd. After 2007, I didn't think
Youkilis would be an outstanding player, but 2008 has made me a believer.
He's the kind of guy you absolutely love having on your team, but he's also
the guy you absolutely hate. I'm a Yankees fan of course and so I can't stand
Youkilis more than anyone else in baseball. His whining antics, he's bald
dome and that ridiculous beard are the most annoying things in baseball.
Still, you can't deny the guys ability to either play good defense or swing a
hellacious bat! If you are looking for things to possibly bring Youkilis back
down, you can point to his increased BABIP in 2008 and also the increase in
the percentage of his fly balls that wound up as HR. It could be that
Youkilils had a breakout season in 2008 or it might mean he simply had his
career year at the age of 29 which seems more plausible. If the latter is
true, he's more of a .290 hitter with 20HR than a .310 hitter with 30HR. It's
all about repeatability.


2B-Dustin Pedroia: 326/376/493; 17HR, 54-2B, 83RBI, 13.1AB/BB, 20SB, 122OPS+

Maybe deserved the MVP but you can't deny what he did from mid-June forward.
From June 14th to the end of the season, Pedroia hit 375/422/588 with 13HR,
37-2B, 54RBI and 14SB in an 89-game span! Pedroia was only 24-years old last
season so he still has 1-2 years left before he even enters his prime years
for crying out loud! Given that incredible 2nd half burst, Pedroia might very
well have more in the tank for an entire season! Adjusting those numbers for
150 games would give Pedroia not only a .375 batting average and a 1.000+OPS,
it would give him 22HR, 62 doubles, 91RBI and 24SB! We can talk about Chase
Utley all we want and even throw Ian Kinsler into the conversation, but right
now hands down Pedroia is the best keystone player in the major leagues.


3B-Mike Lowell: 274/338/461; 17HR, 27-2B, 73RBI, 11.0AB/BB, 2SB, 103OPS+

Lowell's skills were already eroding before he came to Boston. He peaked in
Florida at the age of 29 & 30 with OPS+ numbers of 128 & 127 respectively.
The following year he posted an OPS+ of 77 and was jettisoned to Boston with
Josh Beckett in the Hanley Ramirez deal. He posted a 104 OPS+ in Boston his
first year but then got CRAZY lucky in 2007 when he posted a nutty .342 BABIP
when his established BABIP was .282! He was put into a great offense which
led him to grab 120RBI and all of a sudden we had an MVP candidate at the hot
corner! Lowell normalized last season with a .287 BABIP and we had an age-34
third-basemen with a declining skill set for at least 4-years despite the
brief luck period in 2007 which coincided with a World Series ring making his
importance all the more overhyped. Injuries got to him last season and the
decline is inevitable. He'll be able to hit .280 but that OPS+ is trending
downward. He'll be around for 2009 & 2010 which hurts the Red Sox a bit but
in 2011 expect Lars Anderson and Kevin Youkilis to be manning the corner
infield positions.


SS-Julio Lugo: 268/355/330; 1HR, 13-2B, 22RBI, 7.7AB/BB, 12SB, 78OPS+

Somewhat of a brutal player. Lugo is signed thru 2010 which is odd. He won't
get enough plate appearances in the aggregate or in 2010 to vest his 2011
option. Jed Lowrie is better right now in my opinion to take over SS. At $9
million per year over the next 2 seasons, Lugo isn't brutal I suppose as far
as contracts go but that 78OPS+? EEK! There probably isn't a team in the
majors that doesn't have a SS down in AA who couldn't put that kind of number
right now in the major leagues. Guys like Lugo are simply amazing to me how
they've been in the majors as long as they have. He's a career 88 OPS+ hitter
yet he's been in the league for 9-years and has more than 4,200 at-bats! How
on earth does that happen? He's a 33-year old SS coming off injuries. We're
talking future utility player until he retires.


LF-Jason Bay: 286/373/522; 31HR, 35-2B, 101RBI, 7.1AB/BB, 10SB, 134OPS+

Now it's obvious that 2007 was the fluke and 2008 was more in line with what
Bay actually is as a player. Bay sometimes had the reputation in Pittsburgh
of not playing well in the big games or under pressure (not that anyone would
be pressured playing for Pittsburgh), but he came over to Boston to replace
Manny Ramirez and didn't miss a beat. He hit 282/375/519 in Pittsburgh and
293/370/527 in Boston. Bay made an adjustment to his stance which allowed him
to open up a bit more and produce a few more fly balls. I don't know if it
means he's still up for a career year after what he did in 2005, but if Bay
comes out and hits .290 with 35HR and 110RBI can we say he did a pretty good
job of filling in for Ramirez without all the drama that comes with Manny
being Manny? Bay is entering his age-30 season so he's got 2-3 more peak
years which could come with a career year still. He's going to hit
.290-30-100 at minimum with an OPS+ of 130. That's getting it done in a
corner OF slot.


CF-Jacoby Ellsbury: 280/336/394; 9HR, 22-2B, 47RBI, 13.5AB/BB, 50SB, 87OPS+

Ellsbury is one of those ROTO players who plays well in fantasy baseball but
not as great in regular baseball. In ROTO he'll give you a .290 average with
40-50 steals making him very valuable. In reality he's a player with almost
no pop in his bat that doesn't have great plate discipline playing for a team
that doesn't really rely on his only great skill; that being his speed. The
big thing with Ellsbury is what can he do going forward? He'll be 25-years
old in 2009 which is a year or two away from peak values. His minor league
numbers would tell us he has better plate discipline than he showed combined
with a little more pop in his bat. I like his speed and I think it gives
Boston a different dynamic when he's at the plate or on base. For the most
part, I think he'll improve as a hitter, but I doubt he'll ever be an
all-star candidate. You need players like this though to win championships.
Homegrown players able to play good positions that can grind it out.


RF-J.D. Drew: 280/408/519; 19HR, 23-2B, 64RBI, 4.7AB/BB, 4SB, 137OPS+

If his name is David Jonathan Drew then why is he J.D. instead of D.J.? It's
the same story every season with Drew. On talent alone he's one of the best
pure players in the game, but his body is simply not up to the task. We'eve
seen flashes how good he could be. Look at 2001 with the Cardinals (161 OPS+)
or 2004 with the Braves (157 OPS+). He's never had a season where he's played
in at least 150 games. It's not often talked about but durability should be a
part of any skill set when it comes to evaluating a professional athlete! If
he's healthy he's an All-Star who could be the MVP of the league playing
great defense in RF. If he's injured, you simply enjoy him while he's in
there and lament the career that could have been.


DH-David Ortiz: 264/369/507; 23HR, 30-2B, 89RBI, 5.9AB/BB, 1SB, 123OPS+

Was 2008 a harbinger of things to come? From August until the end of the
season Ortiz hit 262/381/519 for the Bosox, something that doesn't look
pretty when you consider the injury problems with Ortiz's wrist combined with
his previous levels of production. Big Papi is an odd player. He had an
INCREDIBLE run from ages 27-31 but last year was his age-32 season and he's
now out of his peak entering his age-33 year. Ortiz hasn't taking much heat
for performance enhancing drugs (PED) but how can you not think this guy was
on some type of hGH? His head is the size of a larger than average pumpkin
and he's got to be every bit of 6-4/280lbs. He can't run worth a lick and
that weight has to be murder on his knees. My guess is that he's getting
ready to go on the decline. He'll still have power and he'll still have
patience, but he'll start hitting .270-.280 instead of .320 and he'll
struggle to get into 130 games a season.


2009 RED SOX BENCH

C-Josh Bard: 202/279/270; 1HR, 9-2B, 16RBI, 9.9AB/BB, 0SB, 53OPS+
IF-Jed Lowrie: 258/339/400; 2HR, 25-2B, 46RBI, 7.4AB/BB, 1SB, 90OPS+
OF-Rocco Baldelli: 263/344/475; 4HR, 5-2B, 13RBI, 11.4AB/BB, 0SB, 113OPS+
IF/OF-Mark Kotsay: 276/329/403; 6HR, 25-2B, 49RBI, 12.6AB/BB, 2SB, 91OPS+
OF-Jon Van Every: 235/278/353; 0HR, 0-2B, 5RBI, 17.0AB/BB, 0SB, 61OPS+
C-George Kottaras: 200/200/400; 0HR, 1-2B, 0RBI, INF-AB/BB, 0SB, 50OPS+

The bench is OK. I really like the Baldelli signing especially if they can
medically handle his mitochondrial disease allowing him to play in more
games. Given the Drew's track record, the Sox did a good thing in signing
Baldelli because he can replace Drew in RF if need be. He won't approximate
Drew's production, but it won't be a huge fall off either. I think Lowrie is
good to go this year and Kotsay is a pretty good veteran guy who can fit in a
number of places. The one place Boston really hurts is behind the plate.
Varitek is a hole in the lineup and if he doesn't actually sign then you are
stuck with Bard & Kottaras. That's definitely a problem for Boston.


OVERALL IMPRESSION OF THE BOSTON OFFENSE?

It's a muderers row. Pedroia, Youkilis, Drew, Bay, Ortiz & Lowell. I think
Ellsbury will be better this season but getting through the first 6 hitters
before getting to Lugo, Ellsbury and Varitek is going to be darn near
impossible. In a lot of ways I like this offense better than I do the
Yankees. With New York you have a lot of unknown commodities outside of A-Rod
& Teixeira but with Boston you almost know exactly what you're going to get.
Sure there is the injury problems with Drew and we don't exactly know how Big
Papi is going to hold up over time, but for the most part I really like
having Youkilis & Pedroia at the top of the lineup and I really like Ellsbury
hitting 8th or 9th before turning over to Pedroia & Youkilis. Going
Pedroia-Youkilis-Ortiz-Bay-Drew-Lowell-Varitek-Lugo-Ellsbury is pretty darn
sweet. I like the offense a lot even without ManRam there to add the drama.



2009 RED SOX STARTING ROTATION

#1-Josh Beckett: 174.3IP, 8.9H/9, 8.9K/9, 5.1K:BB, 1.8BB/9, 0.9HR/9,
1.187WHIP, 115ERA+

Usually blister problems get the best of Beckett but this time it was back
spasms and elbow discomfort. Even with the injuries.....GOOD NIGHT! Beckett
has learned the art of control to the point of being a master. Over his last
375IP spanning 2007-2008 he's walked just 1.8 batters per 9! Combine that
with a K-rate of 9 and allowing less than a home run per 9IP and you have the
makings of the most dominant pitcher in the game. If you've read my stuff for
long, you know I think Beckett is the VERY BEST pitcher in the game if he's
healthy. Health is the big problem. Beckett is going to be 29-years old this
season so he's in the prime of his career. Still, he's been in the league for
8 seasons and has only won 89 games. His career accomplishments simply don't
match his ability. He's got 2 World Series rings and he's the best big game
pitcher in the majors. It almost feels like he's starting to disappoint.


#2-Jon Lester: 210.3IP, 8.6H/9, 6.5K/9, 2.3K:BB, 2.8BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.274WHIP,
144ERA+

Can you believe Lester led the team in IP last year? Lester threw about 150
innings in 2007 spanning from A-ball to the Red Sox. The guy beat cancer and
has the guts of a burglar. I think he solidified himself as a solid #2
starter last season with his durability and his effectiveness. The big
question will be whether it was too much too soon for the big lefty. Lester
has 5-pitchers but mainly works off a fastball/cutter/curve repetoire. He
pumps his fastball around 92mph and his curve ball has developed as such that
it's not a major part of his arsenal. Back on May 19th the kid threw a
no-hitter giving both he & Buchholz no-nos between them! How many up and
coming pitching prospects can claim that! Lester made HUGE strides with his
control last season so it makes me wonder if he really got that much better
or is he due for some regression before that ability is for real? I think
he's one of the best pitchers in the AL starting right now.


#3-Daisuke Matsuzaka: 167.7IP, 6.9H/9, 8.3K/9, 1.6K:BB, 5.0BB/9, 0.6HR/9,
1.324WHIP, 159ERA+

With Lester's emergence, Matsuzaka gets pushed a little lower down the
pitching totem pole in Boston. He's not a #3 starter and if Smoltz comes back
healthy, he'll be relegated to #4 status. If Penny pitches like he did in Los
Angeles in 2007 then Matsuzaka is relegated to #5 starter status. The big
problem with Daisuke is that he throws way too many pitches. His control is
erratic to say the least and if he didn't get absurdly lucky with his BABIP
(.267) and wasn't able to keep the ball in the yard, his 18-3 record and
2.90ERA would have been much much higher. Matsuzaka only pumps 91mph gas from
the right side so it's average, but he throws like a million pitches. From
what I've read, Matsuzaka could be much more effective if he relied on his
changeup and curveball a lot more instead of throwing his slider and cutter
so many times. He needs to break out that gyroball! He'll only be 28-years
old so there is lots to like here. I hope he figures it out because he could
be an exciting pitcher to watch and in reality he already is, but he needs to
make a couple of adjustments to get to the hype he had coming into the league.


#4-Tim Wakefield: 181IP, 7.7H/9, 5.8K/9, 2.0K:BB, 3.0BB/9, 1.2HR/9,
1.182WHIP, 112ERA+

Did you know that Wakefield is entering his 15th season with the Red Sox?
He's the longest tenured Red Sox on the team! He ranks 3rd all time in wins
in Red Sox history and if Wakefield sticks around for another 3-4 years he'll
pass both Roger Clemens and Cy Young for winningest pitcher in Boston Red Sox
history! He's 2nd only to Bob Stanley in most games played for Boston as a
pitcher although if Wakefield stays in the starting rotation it'll be hard
for him to catch Stanley unless he pitches until he's 50! He's 3rd in IP and
2 more years will get him the lead there. I'm not aware if Wakefield knows
where he ranks in Red Sox history but you'd have to think he has to. And why
can't he just keep on pitching? He posted his lowest WHIP last season since
2002! He posted his lowest ERA+ since 2003! Wakefield will be 42-years old
this upcoming season. Right now he's in the rotation but Lester, Beckett &
Matsuzaka aren't going anywhere. Buchholz & Bowden are probably ready by 2010
so this might be Wakefield's last gig as a guaranteed starter. Still, he's
pretty darn valuable out of the pen and could probably stay there until he
decided to call it quits instead of his skills declining. If only everyone
could throw a knuckler!


#5-Brad Penny: 94.7IP, 10.6H/9, 4.8K/9, 1.2K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 1.2HR/9, 1.627WHIP,
68ERA+

A low risk high reward signing for the Bosox! The Sox signed him for a base
of $5 million for 2009 that could turn into $8 million if he's healthy. It
sort of makes sense on both accounts. If Penny deals then Boston got him
relatively cheap at $8 million and Penny gets to go after the big contract.
If Penny busts then Boston isn't out that much money. For a guy who throws
93-94mph, Penny doesn't strikeout a ton of batters. He's relying more on a
splitter to induce groundballs which helps out his gopheritis but he's got to
be healthy. He has a tendency to get injured once he gets near 200IP in a
season. Fortunately for Boston, he didn't even reach 95IP in 2008 so he
should be alright! How fragile are today's starting pitchers! It's like they
are delicate little flowers for crying out loud!


SP-John Smoltz: 28IP, 8.0H/9, 11.6K/9, 4.5K:BB, 2.6BB/9, 0.6HR/9, 1.179WHIP,
165ERA+
SP-Clay Buchholz: 76IP, 11.0H/9, 8.5K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.9BB/9, 1.3HR/9,
1.763WHIP, 68ERA+
SP-Michael Bowden: 5IP, 12.6H/9, 5.4K/9, 3.0K:BB, 1.8BB/9, 0.0HR/9,
1.600WHIP, 128ERA+


OVERALL IMPRESSION OF RED SOX ROTATION

For as much grief as the Yankees get about their starting pitching, I don't
see why Boston should be exempt either. Let's face it, the Sox don't want to
rush up Buchholz or Bowden so those guys are almost off limits. Smoltz won't
be ready until mid-May at the earliest and he's coming off an injury filled
year. Lester has injury worries given the increase in workload. Beckett is
always an injury concern. Penny is coming off an injury plagued year as is
Matsuzaka. There are a TON of questions surrounding this rotation.

Even still, the Red Sox have a way of making it work. Last season only Jon
Lester & Tim Wakefield made at least 30 starts but Boston still won 95-games.
Their bullpen is still going to be great. The starting lineup is still going
to score a lot of runs. I think the rotation is solid. According to the 2009
Hardball Times Baseball Annual, the Red Sox had the 4th best rotation
according to WPA (wins probability added) behind the Angels, Indians and
Cubs, and frankly that is with quite a few things going wrong. If Beckett
stays healthy, Matsuzaka makes some adjustments and Smoltzie gets healthy
then this is a helluva rotation NOBODY wants to see in the postseason
especially given Beckett's and Smoltz's exploits when the entire nation is
watching. On overall talent it might be a tick below the Yankees but not by
leaps and bounds.



2009 RED SOX BULLPEN

CL-Jon Papelbon: 69.3IP, 7.5H/9, 10.0K/9, 9.6K:BB, 1.0BB/9, 0.5HR/9,
0.952WHIP, 198ERA+
RP-Justin Masterson: 88.3IP, 6.9H/9, 6.9K/9, 1.7K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 1.0HR/9,
1.223WHIP, 146ERA+
LP-Hideki Okajima: 62IP, 7.1H/9, 8.7K/9, 2.6K:BB, 3.3BB/9, 0.9HR/9,
1.161WHIP, 177ERA+
RP-Takashi Saito: 47IP, 7.7H/9, 11.5K/9, 3.8K:BB, 3.1BB/9, 0.2HR/9,
1.191WHIP, 171ERA+
RP-Manny Delcarmen: 74.3IP, 6.7H/9, 8.7K/9, 2.6K:BB, 3.4BB/9, 0.6HR/9,
1.117WHIP, 141ERA+
LP-Javier Lopez: 59.3IP, 8.0H/9, 5.8K/9, 1.4K:BB, 4.1BB/9, 0.6HR/9,
1.348WHIP, 190ERA+
RP-Ramon Ramirez: 71.7IP, 7.2H/9, 8.8K/9, 2.3K:BB, 3.9BB/9, 0.3HR/9,
1.228WHIP, 162ERA+
RP-Wes Littleton: 18IP, 9.0H/9, 7.0K/9, 1.8K:BB, 4.0BB/9, 0.5HR/9, 1.444WHIP,
73ERA+

The rich get richer. The Red Sox bring in two dynamite closers in Takashi
Saito & Ramon Ramirez to add tremendous depth to the bullpen. Masterson can
work as a quasi long-man and Okajima & Lopez are hellacious on the lefties.
Littleton probably doesn't make the squad so there isn't one garbage time
reliever on the whole staff! When Smoltz comes back, the Red Sox can either
push Wakefield to the pen or simply put Smoltz back in the bullpen to give
the Sox an even more dynamic effect. It wasn't like Boston had a bad bullpen
to begin with. It ranked 10th in WPA in the majors last season, but in 2009
it has a chance to be incredible with the ability to drastically shorten
games which should also allow the starting rotation to take it easier. Gotta
love the syngery going on here in Beantown.

Papelbon is simply great in the closer's role. If Saito is healthy then he
and Delcarmen make a dynamite 7th-8th inning combination. I'm not even sure
where that puts Ramirez & Okajima because they could be a devastating 7th-8th
inning combination handing off to Papelbon in their own right. Lopez will
dominate as the LOOGY out of the pen leaving Masterson for those long outings
that Boston might need or garbage time duty. It's a special group. The guy
with the lowest ERA+ last season was Delcarmen with a 141!


OVERALL PROJECTION FOR THE 2009 RED SOX

If it wasn't for the Yankees, how could anyone in their right mind think
Boston wasn't the best team in the East? Even with the Yankees you could
argue the Red Sox are the team to beat in 2009. My projection for Boston is
2nd Place in the AL East with the Wild Card in hand. I don't think the Red
Sox & Yankees are the two best teams in the AL East or even the AL. I think
they are the two best teams in all of baseball and it might not be that
close. I'm not sure Boston will miss Ramirez all that much. Jason Bay will
more than produce in the Boston lineup and a healthy JD Drew (while almost
impossible) would really make Boston standout offensively. I'm not crazy
about Ortiz going forward and the Red Sox do hav some holes with guys like
Varitek & Lugo but I think Ellsbury will uptick a bit. The rotation should be
really good even with an injury here or there and the bullpen could be murder
on opposing hitters. If you want to beat Boston you are going to have to jump
on them early and often because the bullpen is going to shut you down and the
offense is going to score some runs to make it close. If you wanted to say
Boston #1 and New York #2 I wouldn't argue that much, but right now I'll take
New York #1 and Boston #1A.

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◆ From: 140.112.5.3
※ 編輯: abc12812        來自: 140.112.5.3          (02/03 20:38)
推 charlietu:老姜跟Penny復活的話維尼只排5號!真的這樣就high了~~
→ MinChuan:維尼只能5號,那只能說輪值看到就怕了XD
→ Jethro1215:條紋聖衣隊哪是我們這種 ㄖㄅㄒㄕ 球隊可以抗衡的