http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/
cardinals_red_sox_swapped_duncan_lug/
St. Louis Cardinals -
Acquired SS Julio Lugo from the Boston Red Sox for 1B-OF Chris Duncan.
Lugo's been terrible defensively in limited time at shortstop, but I think
the Red Sox were too quick to push him out the door. They don't have much
depth at SS and Lowrie's ability to play, coming off recent wrist surgery, is
still very much in the air, especially after playing very poorly in his rehab
stint. Seriously, if Nick Green goes down and Lowrie isn't back to where he
was, what's the plan? Ivan Ochoa? Lugo's probably simply below-average
defensively rather than all-world horrible and he's hit enough that he has
value. From the way some Red Sox fans talk about Lugo, you'd think he was
hitting like Tony Pena Jr.
For the Red Sox, the interest in Duncan is past this year. Even if Duncan's
offense had returned, having LaRoche and Duncan on the roster at the same
time would be kind of redundant until rosters are expanded. As noted, Duncan
hasn't been the same since repeated back problems and it's a very real
question if h'll ever be the player he was a few years ago.
For the Cardinals, Greene's issues have caused the team to unexpectedly have
Brendan Ryan as the full-time shortstop and to be honest, given that Ryan's
played well defensively this season, I don't actually think Lugo would be an
upgrade as a starter, though he has value as a role player. There's no real
platoon opportunity either.
In other words, this is kind of a meh trade for both sides.
2009 ZIPS Projection - Chris Duncan
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date 260 25 59 15 2 5 32 41 67 0 .227 .329 .358
Rest-of-Year 157 20 41 10 1 6 25 22 43 1 .259 .350 .440
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 417 45 100 25 3 11 57 63 110 1 .239 .337 .389
2009 ZIPS Projection - Julio Lugo
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year-to-Date 109 16 31 4 1 1 8 12 18 3 .284 .352 .367
Rest-of-Year 141 19 37 7 0 2 13 14 27 7 .259 .331 .354
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total 250 35 68 11 1 3 21 26 45 10 .270 .340 .360
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
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