推 JoshBeckeet:要來了嗎? 12/21 14:19
→ roverchi:看來這個冬天難有結果... 12/21 14:19
推 sotight:看樣子是他們覺得七月的交易大限可以撈比較多..... 12/21 14:27
推 GJIRO:教士想到七月交易大限再來搶劫是吧！ 12/21 14:52
推 slamduck:或許到時巴扣子也投出成績了~ 12/21 15:09
推 TKWdEmoN:這冬天SD不會有動作，看明年有沒有希望 12/21 18:05
By waiting, Padres would get better value
by Jon Paul Morosi on Dec 20, 2009 11:25 AM EDT
Yes, the Padres should trade Adrian Gonzalez.
But not right now.
Barring an injury or unforeseen production decline, Gonzalez's value will be
very high at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. He will be as far from free
agency then as Mark Teixeira was at the time of the Rangers-Braves blockbuster
in 2007. And you may recall the Rangers' return in that deal included Elvis
Andrus and Neftali Feliz.
In order to trade Gonzalez now, Jed Hoyer would need to negotiate with general
managers who can counter his (understandably) high demands by saying, "Why
should I give you my three best prospects when I can keep them and sign Adam
LaRoche, Hank Blalock or Russell Branyan to play first base?"
Of course, Gonzalez is better than LaRoche, Blalock or Branyan on both sides of
the ball. But as long as other teams have free-agent alternatives, it will be
hard for Hoyer, a first-year general manager, to have much leverage.
By the middle of this season, it should be different.
In July, other GMs can't talk about free-agent options.
In July, other GMs are under pressure to go for it by getting one more
left-handed slugger.
In July, other GMs will look at the money remaining on Gonzalez's contract —
at that stage, barely more than $7 million through 2011 — and say to
ownership: "For this guy, for that amount of money, we should make it happen."
For each of those reasons, Hoyer might actually get a better return in July
than if he were to trade Gonzalez now. Gonzalez has averaged 35 home runs and
106 RBIs over the past three seasons. He led the National League this year with
119 walks. He's one of the most sought-after players in the game today, and
that's probably not going to change anytime soon.
And let's not forget the obvious: Hoyer has been on the job for less than two
months. He didn't hire a new scouting director until Friday. Generally
speaking, it's difficult to interview candidates for a position of such
importance and work on trading your franchise player at the same time.
Besides, it's probably a good idea to make some friends in town before
completing a trade that could start an uproar among otherwise-happy San
Diegans. Gonzalez is a San Diego native and favorite son.
organization is strong and weak, of precisely the type of package he would
want, of the effect that Gonzalez's departure would have on the fan base. If
done skillfully, a Gonzalez trade could bring back enough talent to catapult
the Padres back into contention in two or three years. The Teixeira trade, at
the '07 trade deadline, did that for Jon Daniels and the Rangers.
And remember: Gonzalez, a Mexican-American star in a border town, is the team's
biggest gate attraction. The longer he is a Padre, the longer fans will buy
tickets to watch him play.
Much has been made of the possibility of Gonzalez's going to Boston, where he
would be an offensive force at Fenway Park. Hoyer has intimate knowledge of the
Red Sox farm system because of his tenure as that club's assistant GM.
Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, a close friend of Hoyer's, has a
bountiful farm system from which to trade. But Epstein has the same leverage
that every other GM does right now: He could sign a corner infielder such as
Adrian Beltre or Mark DeRosa and hang onto his prospects.
And consider this: One rival executive, who requested anonymity, doubts Hoyer
would accept an offer of right-handers Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard if the
package didn't also include right-hander Casey Kelly or outfielder Ryan
Westmoreland.
If that's accurate, then it's hard to imagine a deal occurring anytime soon.
Buchholz and Bard, after all, were major contributors on a postseason team in
2009. They are young, inexpensive and talented. Apparently, though, they would
not be enough.
The only rationale for trading Gonzalez now would be if ownership ordered Hoyer
to reduce the payroll, and it doesn't appear such a request has been made. CEO
Jeff Moorad has said publicly the payroll will be between $40 million and $50
million. At that number, Gonzalez's $4.75 million salary for 2010 is more than
palatable.
Still, bear in mind the Padres remain a franchise in transition — quite
literally — from John Moores to Moorad.
At present, the names of both men can be found on the organizational masthead.
Moores is the chairman and majority owner (for now). Moorad is the vice
chairman and CEO.
Moores has owned the club since 1994 but put it up for sale after his wife,
Rebecca, filed for divorce in 2008. Moores and Moorad reached agreement earlier
this year on an ownership transfer by February 2014; at some point between now
and then, Moorad's group will have 100 percent control of the team.
importance than they would, say, at Fenway Park or Wrigley Field.
And if the Padres maintain their current spending levels, they won't be able to
afford Gonzalez when he enters free agency after the 2011 season. He could be
headed for a payday on the order of Teixeira's deal with the Yankees last
offseason (eight years, $180 million).
Gonzalez gave the team one hometown discount, when he signed his current
contract. It's hard to believe he will grant them another. One has to believe
he will wear a different uniform in the not-too-distant future. But there's no
need for that to happen on the first day of spring training in 2010.
In order for Hoyer to trade a local hero, he will need to get a perfect deal.
And there's a better chance of that happening in July than January.
來源:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Morosi-Padres-should-wait-to-deal-Gonzalez-122009
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