http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9990
Hot Stove U.: Red Sox are the Best Farmers
by Kevin Goldstein
The Set-up
Sure, the Boston Red Sox are one of baseball's Daddy Warbucks teams;
they typically have a nine-figure payroll that is consistently among the
highest in the game. They're in the running for nearly every top free
agent, and this year their roster will have six players making more than
$10 million. New York Yankees, New England version, right? No.
Their roster is filled with homegrown talent. Arguably the best right
side of the infield in all of pro baseball -- Kevin Youkilis and Dustin
Pedroia -- were both draft steals. Three starting pitchers originally
signed with the Red Sox, as did most of the bullpen.
Sure, they have the ability to spend freely in the free-agent market --
but at the same time, they've had the most successful player procurement
system of the past decade. It comes down to focusing on aggressiveness,
intelligence and -- at times -- sheer volume.
The Proof
It's no surprise to see the Red Sox as one of baseball's busiest
franchises in the international talent market. Be it adding big league
players like Daisuke Matsuzaka or a slew of million-dollar, high-ceiling
talents from Latin America, few teams add more talent from outside the
country than the Red Sox. They do this under the direction of former big
league infielder Craig Shipley, an Australian who runs their
international scouting program. However, with 50 rounds each year, it's
the draft that provides most of the talent to any team's player
development system, and no team takes better advantage of its picks.
It seems at times that one of baseball's great secrets is that the MLB
draft represents the biggest bargain in the game. While the industry and
especially the people in Major League Baseball's central office gnash
their teeth over draft bonuses that in the grand scheme of things
represent pocket change, the Red Sox recognize that the potential payoff
for these bonuses eclipses anything in the game by a wide margin.
Look no further than Stephen Strasburg, the top pick in the 2009 draft.
His deal with the Washington Nationals shattered all bonus records, and
Washington added arguably the best pitcher in college baseball history.
Yet, in pure dollars, his deal is nearly equivalent to what the Chicago
Cubs will pay run-of-the-mill center fielder Marlon Byrd for three
years.
Let's take a quick step back: It's important to note that while there is
a slotting system for the draft, it's not etched in stone. It's merely
numbers that are suggested by the powers that be at MLB; money, as much
as talent, defines the draft order. Can you imagine Kevin Durant or
LeBron James dropping to the end of the first round -- becoming
available to what is already a good team -- because early-drafting teams
fear their contract demands? It happens all the time in baseball, and
the Red Sox are happy to take advantage.
The idea of upgrading picks is nothing new. Some say Pat Gillick was the
first to truly utilize it as a strategy while GM of the Toronto Blue
Jays in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but the Red Sox have taken it to
a new level. In 2009, they gave two bonuses of more than $1 million; in
2008, they gave three such extras; and in 2006, they gave another two.
If you analyze it purely by bonuses handed out, the Red Sox have been
able to pick up the equivalent of seven first-rounders in the past four
years, while adding 15 second-round talents. That's why their system is
always so loaded; this year's squad at Triple-A Pawtucket will be filled
with young, big league-ready talents should the needs arise via injury,
while the lower levels of the system have some of the most intriguing
high-ceiling prospects in the game.
Beyond the team's willingness to spend in the draft is this: Even when
they've selected round-appropriate talent, the Red Sox's success rate is
nothing short of stunning. One could argue that nobody, including the
Red Sox, saw Pedroia (second round, 2004) or Youkilis (eighth round,
2001) becoming the stars they've developed into, while closer Jonathan
Papelbon (fourth round, 2003), was seen as more as a future set-up man
than someone capable of delivering 40 saves annually. Great scouting
plus pure aggressiveness tends to equal a great system.
The Conclusion
While it might be hard to match the Red Sox in pure scouting acumen,
when it comes to the practice of pick upgrading, any team can play.
Finances might prevent a small-market club from competing with the Sox
when it comes to bidding on high-priced free agents, but the relatively
paltry amount of dollars that goes to even top picks makes exploiting
the draft available to all. Some small-budget teams, such as the
Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics, have
already begun to play the game. Those that don't will fall further
behind in each year's organizational talent rankings.
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