Re: Is Adrian Beltre A Future Hall-Of-Famer?

[nolander (Dent)]

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/6/28/1541491/is-adrian-beltre-a-future-hall-of
: I was doing my daily scouring of the leaderboards, and I was immediately
: struck by the fact that Adrian Beltre is still batting .340 on the year,
: despite coming into the season at .270 for his career. Now, I don't want to
: focus on his 2010 performance too much, he has a high line drive rate and a
: .376 BABIP, so his exploits this season are somewhat explainable from a guy
: with world-class athletic talent.
我做著日常統計工作時 被吹哥的.340 BA嚇到了 生涯平均才.270喔...
所以我不想太在意今年的好成績 他還有相當高的平飛球率跟.376的BABIP
所以...有世界級才能的吹哥打出這個好成績也是可以理解的

: But what caught my eye even more than his 2010 numbers was the astonishing
: consistency with which he's put up quality numbers over the past decade. And
: frankly, it's got me begging the question, "Will this guy end up getting some
: serious Cooperstown recognition?"
但比今年成績更吸引我注意的是他多年來的持久力
讓我開始妄想:這個臭臉人會不會有天被古柏鎮刻上紀念碑?

: Obviously, if you look at just his bat, he's certainly not a Hall of Famer.
: He's got a career batting line of .274/.327/.458, good for a slightly above
: average .338 wOBA. But here's a friendly reminder that Beltre hasn't just
: been good with the glove at third base in his career. He's been special.
: Since the creation of UZR in 2002, he's put up an average defensive mark of
: +15.5 per 150 games, with a total defensive mark of +135 since the beginning
: of the 1998 season.
當然 你只看棒子的話吹哥不是跟HoFer的款
生涯打出.274/.327/.458 跟比平均好一點的.338wOBA
但別忘了吹哥的手套是九九純金的!
從2002年UZR這數據出現開始 他每年平均拿到+15.5 / 150 games
倒推回去的話 他從98年至今合計UZR已經來到+135!!

: Not to mention that Beltre should probably get some extra credit as the only
: player in the FanGraphs era (2002-present) to put up a double-digit season
: season WAR other than Barry Bonds, his monster 2004 was the last time that
: we've seen a player cross the 10.0 WAR threshold. For a second, actually,
: let's just reflect on that season, which landed him a five-year, $65M deal
: with the Mariners the following offseason. Coming off of a two-season span
: where he emerged as the game's premier defensive third baseman but showed a
: consistently below average bat, Beltre absolutely blew up. He put up a
: .334/.388/.629 line (.424 wOBA), as he saw significant improvement in his
: K/BB and his HR/FB. The increased power led to 48 homers, 32 doubles, 200
: hits and 121 RBI, some pretty crazy counting numbers. Add in some elite
: defensive work (+24.4 UZR) and you have a 10.1 WAR season. And the best part
: it, maybe? At the time he was a 25-year-old entering free agency. This would
: be like if Evan Longoria hit free agency this offseason.
更別說吹哥是棒子以外唯一在FanGraphs era拿到雙位數WAR的男人 04年超過10.0 WAR!!
有那麼一瞬間 好吧 說實在的藉由那年的好表現 他從水兵拿到5年65M的大約
那年的吹哥 .334/.388/.629 (.424 wOBA)以及進步的長打 K/BB跟 HR/FB
炮瓦也變強了 48HR + 32 2B + 200H + 121RBI
還有那嚇死人的手套功夫 (+24.4 UZR)
總合起來就是 10.1的WAR.
最棒的是那年他是個25歲的FA....就跟現在的龍哥同等級阿!
但之後的兩季 他爆炸了...儘管手套仍然很金 打擊卻連平均都稱不上

: Alas, I think that people often focus on their disappointment with Beltre,
: though. He's been a pretty consistently high quality player, but his 2004
: performance has just left everyone drooling, because it was a combination of
: hitting and defensive prowess that we've rarely seen before. But even though
: Beltre has had some serious trouble replicating his offensive magic (which
: you can somewhat blame on Safeco Field; he picked like pretty much the worst
: place for his bat to play when he signed with the M's), I think he's closing
: in on that point where we have to acknowledge that this might be a
: Hall-of-Fame career.
唉 我覺得大家都只注意到吹哥拿到大約後的不符身價的表現
卻忘了他一直都是個很穩定的好選手
但04年的可怕表現讓大家都失心瘋地認為他是個攻守兩端俱強的妖獸
但即使那之後吹哥沒有辦法複製04年的打擊魔法(某個程度上是Safeco的問題)
我仍然認為他有機會穩定輸出並成為HoFer

: Put together everything that Beltre has done on the field, and FanGraphs has
: Beltre's value at +47.1 wins coming into today, which puts him at the same
: level as luminaries such as Fred Lynn and Bernie Williams. Certainly an
: impressive group, but most people would probably be in agreement that they
: aren't quite Hall-of-Famers.
總之 吹哥的表現在FanGraphs上是個+47.1 win的好選手
是在Fred Lynn Bernie Williams這種等級
高手 但是可能沒辦法進名人堂

: The key here, though, is that Beltre is showing no signs of slowing down. As
: I noted before, he's killing the ball in Boston right now, and the glove has
: shown few signs of decline (+13 UZR/150). But most importantly, despite the
: fact that he's seemingly been around forever, Beltre is only 31-years-old.
: He's on pace for a 6.5-7.0 WAR season right now, which he probably won't
: maintain all season, but something around 5.0-5.5 wins seems pretty
: reasonable.
而跟上述幾名不同之處是 吹哥看來並沒有退化 今年在紅襪更是大殺四方!
手套面也許"只"有 +13UZR/150
但最重要的是他雖然看來很老實際上也才31歲
今年目前是個6.5~7.0WAR的球季 就算之後回歸平淡 也少說會有5.0~5.5吧

: Add in a few more seasons at 3-4 WAR, which isn't reasonable considering he
: averaged about 4 WAR per year over the course of his 11-season career, and
: Beltre should be somewhere around 60 or so wins before everything is said and
: done. That's the range of guys like Bob Feller, Ryne Sandberg and Yogi Berra.
: Factor in that he has that signature monster season and he's endearing
: himself to a lot of Red Sox fans right now, and his case looks like it could
: end up being pretty strong.
要是之後再拿到幾個3~4 WAR的球季 吹哥會成為+60win的選手
(目前11季平均差不多就是4WAR)
那他的對照組就會成為Bob Feller, Ryne Sandberg and Yogi Berra
有04年的光榮歷史+紅襪國的熱情粉絲 我願意相信他最後會更屌!

: You know what? I think that Adrian Beltre might be a Hall-of-Famer.
你知道嗎? 我真的覺得吹哥可能會進名人堂喔~!

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翻完之後發現這是個數據派自爽文XD

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◆ From: 70.179.17.78
推 Orcish:
推 francviking:XDD
推 lucifer110:純推不下XD
推 larusa:看了BR的Hall Of Fame Statistics 吹哥應該只有3000安才能
→ larusa:讓他進HOF吧 照吹哥的年紀 如果在打個8年應該是有希望
推 Greatgiant:Scott Boras: 6年9000萬鎂  名人堂呢
推 larusa:吹哥的前輩Scott Rolen若是最終沒進HOF 那吹哥進的機會=0
推 externaload:吹哥會進HOF....真是在說笑
推 larusa:19歲就上大聯盟 20遂就站穩先發 吹哥當然有他成為HOF的本錢
→ larusa:                 歲
推 Greatgiant:吹哥今年如果到季末還是維持住  真是一則以喜一則以憂
→ Greatgiant:如果真的簽下去  很怕重演他在水手的悲劇....
→ Greatgiant:如果真的要續簽他  他的經紀人不狠撈才有鬼
→ Greatgiant:比照LOWELL的合約他應該也不想要  他一定要長約的.....
推 wah:吹哥萬歲
推 Banvera:這肯定要長約
推 larusa:因為吹哥明年開季才滿32 賣肉那張約是34 所以吹哥至少會要
→ larusa:個五年約
推 Banvera:5年7500+第六年選擇權=6年9000萬  還蠻有可能的
→ Banvera:如果他一直這樣爆氣下去的話 不過看GM買不買帳了
推 larusa:能拿到之前那張5年65M應該就要偷笑了吧 :p
推 Greatgiant:在水手打成那樣今年都能拿到1千萬鎂了  今年目前的成績
→ Greatgiant:不太可能簽長約時平均薪資才1300萬鎂
推 sarserror:守備真的很強 可是要HoF主要是看打擊吧
推 delay815:吹哥的守備真的很蘇胡呀
推 sisi2005:我覺得4+1會是 Theo出的價碼~
推 kikio915:推"雖然看來很老實際上也才31歲"XDXDXD長相嚇人~~
推 ayafan:那麼貴不如overpaid A-Gon 比較年輕砲瓦也比較強
推 externaload:簽的到A-Gon嗎? 今年教士戰績暴衝 砸錢留人的機會頗大
推 s42327:那很難說 通常高點賣出賺比較多
推 ramirez:反正都會overpaid 不如簽A-God
→ ramirez:                      A-Gon
推 Roshiel:Theo最好會給他這麼長的約，除非貝爾川有Theo的裸照
推 alex710707:吹哥什麼時候變川哥了
推 rssh0106:吹歌  川哥  傻傻分不清楚