Re: [漁塭] 2011 BA's Top 10 Prospects

[Belladonaa ( )]

1.  Casey Kelly, rhp

Born: Oct. 4, 1989 ‧ B-T: R-R ‧ Ht: 6-3 ‧ Wt: 210

Drafted: HS—Sarasota, Fla., 2008 (1st round) ‧ Signed by: Anthony Turco

Background: Kelly was one of the top two-way players in the 2008 draft
coming out of high school, but his high asking price and scholarship to
play quarterback at Tennessee made him available to the Red Sox with the
30th overall pick. They viewed him as the most polished high school arm
in the draft and signed him for $3 million, a franchise record for a
draftee. The son of former big league catcher Pat Kelly, Casey preferred
playing every day to pitching, and Boston agreed to let him make his
debut at shortstop. He didn't pitch professionally until 2009, then
switched back to shortstop after appearing in the Futures Game. Kelly
showed fluid actions and power potential as a shortstop, but after
hitting .219 in two pro seasons and .171 in the Arizona Fall League, he
agreed last offseason that his future was on the mound. The Red Sox
assigned him to Double-A Portland, where at 20 he was the youngest
starting pitcher in the Eastern League. He took his lumps against older
competition, though his pure stuff improved as he got bigger and
stronger. Boston shut him down as a precaution when he strained a lat
muscle in early August, and he returned to the mound in the Arizona Fall
League.

Scouting Report: Kelly's ERA may have ballooned from 2.08 in 2009 to
5.31 last season, but the Red Sox think that's attributable to having to
learn how to harness an increase in velocity and make his mechanics work
as his frame started to mature. His fastball now sits at 90-94 mph, up
from 89-92 the year before, and peaks at 96. Kelly showed the ability to
consistently locate his fastball on both corners with sink in 2009 but
didn't command it as well in 2010. With his fluid, athletic delivery, he
should regain that skill once he fully grows into his body. His
struggles came in part because he couldn't paint the black as
effectively, causing him to fall behind in the count. His most effective
pitch right now is an above-average changeup that he delivers with the
same arm speed and slot as his fastball, though he used his changeup a
little too much last season. His curveball gives him a potential third
plus pitch. It's a power breaking ball at times, and more of an average
pitch that he just gets over for strikes at others. Kelly has an
advanced feel for pitching, though he needs to trust his stuff and
challenge hitters more rather than trying to live on the corners. His
athleticism enables him to keep basestealers in check and field his
position well. He has good mound presence and didn't get flustered when
he struggled at Portland.

The Future: It's easy to forget that 2010 was Kelly's first full year as
a pitcher, after he split time between hitting and pitching in 2009, and
his learning curve against Double-A hitters was steep. The Red Sox
aren't worried about his less-than-gaudy statistics, still envisioning
him becoming a frontline starter with three possible plus pitches and
above-average command. He should reach Triple-A Pawtucket at some point
in 2011, perhaps even to start the season, and his big league ETA is
2012.



3.  Anthony Rizzo, 1b

Born: Aug. 8, 1989 ‧ B-T: L-L ‧ Ht: 6-3 ‧ Wt: 220

Drafted: HS—Parkland, Fla., 2007 (6th round) ‧ Signed by: Laz Gutierrez

Background: Rizzo was hitting .373 at low Class A Greenville in April
2008 when he was diagnosed with limited stage classical Hodgkin's
lymphoma. After missing the rest of that season to get treatment, he has
been cancer-free and established himself as the best offensive prospect
in the system.

Scouting Report: Rizzo generates plus power with strength and leverage,
and he drives the ball well to the opposite field. With his willingness
to use the entire field and his patience, he should hit for a solid
average and draw some walks, though he needs to refine his two-strike
approach. He also needs to make adjustments against lefthanders after
hitting .217/.290/.380 against them in 2010. Managers rated him the best
defensive first baseman in the Eastern League, as he has smooth actions
and does a good job of picking throws out of the dirt. He can get
nonchalant in the field, however, which led to 15 errors last season.
He's a below-average runner but moves well for his size.

The Future: He has passed Lars Anderson as Boston's first baseman of the
future, though Rizzo still has to contend with Kevin Youkilis in the
majors. He figures to open 2011 by returning to Double-A and could push
for a big league job the following season.



6.  Reymond Fuentes, of

Born: Feb. 12, 1991 ‧ B-T: L-L ‧ Ht: 6-0 ‧ Wt: 170

Drafted: HS—Manati, P.R., 2009 (1st round) ‧ Signed by: Edgar Perez

Background: The Red Sox made Fuentes the sixth Puerto Rican ever drafted
in the first round, and the first since the Blue Jays' Miguel Negron in
2000, when they selected him 28th overall in 2009. Signed for $1.134
million, he helped Greenville reach the South Atlantic League finals in
his first full season.

Scouting Report: Fuentes is the best athlete in the system, drawing
comparisons to Carlos Beltran (his cousin) and Johnny Damon. His plus-
plus speed gives him impact potential in center field and on the bases.
Managers rated him the best defensive outfielder in the SAL, where he
stole 42 bases in 47 attempts. He enhances his quickness by getting
great jumps on balls, and he compensates for a below-average arm by
charging balls and making accurate throws. Fuentes has a line-drive
stroke, and his bat speed portends some future pop once he adds some
much-needed strength. He's still learning the strike zone but made some
good adjustments in the second half of 2010.

The Future: Though Fuentes may need four or five seasons in the minors,
his upside makes him worth the wait. He has similar tools to Jacoby
Ellsbury, and he's a more advanced hitter at the same stage and should
become a better defender. Fuentes will spend 2011 in high Class A.


--

Proposed Gonzalez deal fairly even

By Keith Law (12/4/10)

The Red Sox are close to acquiring Adrian Gonzalez for three of their
best prospects, including their top two, but wouldn't lose anything off
the major league roster, while San Diego would get a very strong long-
term return for its best trading chip but probably wouldn't see much
from the trade in Petco this season. I think both sides should feel they
made out well if this trade is completed.

Gonzalez might have standing for a lawsuit against the architects of
Petco Park, as there's probably no other position player whose
performance has been held down by his home field as much as his. Over
the past two years, he's hit .311/.402/.610 away from home, with 48 home
runs and 90 walks in 704 PA. He'd move to the toughest division in
baseball, but with good power not just to right field but all the way
over to left-center, he should be good for 40-plus doubles and 30-plus
homers at a minimum. He's an excellent defensive first baseman and his
presence would allow the Red Sox to slide Kevin Youkilis back over to
third while saying "So long and thanks for all the draft picks!" to
Adrian Beltre. While the Red Sox would give up a lot of years of control
and prospect depth for just one year of Gonzalez's services, none of the
three players they would trade was likely to help them in 2011, and
after missing the playoffs this past season they seem to be very focused
on returning there in the upcoming year.

It's widely assumed that the Red Sox will attempt to sign Gonzalez to a
long-term deal, and he's the ideal candidate for the sort of overly long
contract I usually hate for free agents. He turns 29 in May, so a six-
year extension (seven years out) only takes him through his age-35
season, which would give Boston a good three to four years of peak and
some early decline years -- but because Gonzalez is a good defender, has
such an advanced feel for the zone and hits left-handed pitching so well
(despite hitting left-handed himself), I like his odds to hold his value
deep into such a lengthy deal. Such a contract would probably make
first-base prospect Lars Anderson trade bait as well if the Sox want to
make another acquisition this winter or during the 2011 season.

Right-hander Casey Kelly would be the marquee prospect name coming back
to San Diego in the trade as a first-round pick, who earned a top-five
bonus as the last pick in 2008's first round, as the Red Sox lured him
away from a scholarship to play quarterback at the University of
Tennessee. Kelly was a two-way prospect in high school as a plus
defensive shortstop as well as a pitcher, but 2010 marked his first year
as a full-time pitcher after a hundred-odd games of struggling with the
bat convinced him to accede to the Red Sox's plans to develop him on the
mound.

Kelly had excellent command for a high school pitcher, with a sharp
curveball with excellent depth, and will sit 89-94 in his best outings
with good arm speed on a hard changeup. His performance was up and down
in 2010, in part due to a badly cracked fingernail on the middle finger
of his right hand, giving him trouble with both fastball command and
finishing his curveball. Kelly's arm works well, with a short, simple
path, and he's an outstanding defensive pitcher to the point that it's
like having an extra infielder on the diamond. He's probably a 2012
debut, and he could start 2011 back at Double-A if the Padres want to
keep him out of a good hitting environment in Tucson.

First baseman Anthony Rizzo would be the long-term replacement for
Gonzalez in San Diego, perhaps as soon as the start of 2012, although,
as he's Rule 5-eligible after 2011, he could earn a late-season call-up
this year if he performs well in Triple-A Tucson. Like Gonzalez, Rizzo
is a plus-fielding, plus-makeup, power-hitting first baseman, although
he's probably a notch below Gonzalez as a pure hitter and has had some
trouble with left-handed pitching so far in the minors. Rizzo missed
most of 2008 after he was diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma in May of
that year, a few months before his 19th birthday, but has played two
full seasons since then, showing increasing power and good feel for the
strike zone.

In 2002, Gonzalez played in Portland at age 20, which was a Marlins
affiliate at the time, and hit .266/.344/.437 with 34 doubles and 17
home runs in 573 PA. Rizzo played most of 2010 in Portland, also at age
20, and hit .263/.334/.481 with 30 doubles and 20 home runs in 467 PA.
It's not a perfect comparison, as league quality varies from year to
year and Portland did alter its left-field wall in 2003 by adding the
"Maine monster," but given the overall similarity and the fact that
Rizzo lost a year of development while he fought cancer, it's more
evidence for optimism in San Diego.

Outfielder Reymond Fuentes would be the third piece in the deal, the one
guy who's not a top-50 prospect, but was a legitimate first-round talent
at the time of the draft and still has a lot of potential, even though
he's probably a full three years away. Fuentes is a 70-75 runner with 70
range in center, making him an ideal defensive fit for Petco's spacious
outfield, and he has good feel for the bat with the potential to hit for
average down the road. He really needs to get stronger -- while he'll
probably never have even average power, he's still slight and needs to
be able to drive the ball to the gaps and show he can handle better
velocity when he reaches Double-A. His one major negative is a fringy
arm, 40 or 45 depending on which day you see him, but I think he has the
potential to be Jacoby Ellsbury without all the injuries.



--
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◆ From: 118.160.67.157
推 leon0000:我們丟走Kelly 未來等著我們只有悔恨這兩個字~
※ 編輯: Belladonaa      來自: 118.160.67.157       (12/05 11:06)
推 MichaelBourn:...
推 rayhsiao:不一定啦 當初丟小拉米有換冠軍回來...
推 zirca:五年內拿三次世界冠軍就不會悔恨了
推 aup6wu0:如果等到季中..甚至自由球員...不好嗎...
→ aup6wu0:市場上有很多隊可以滿足教士的需求嗎...
推 tsubasa6405:不丟高檔魚怎麼換到大物?一桶肉魚以量取勝??
推 DOLoveDO:一桶魚肉教士可能還覺得占空間呢XD
→ shall:平常哈棒子哈的流口水 要交易又覺得丟top prospect可惜= =?
推 tsubasa6405:就連NYY都沒有十足把握說砸錢就100%入手想要的貨色
→ shall:而且教士也不會讓他進fa吧 XD
→ tsubasa6405:我不知道靠搶FA就能拿到的信心是從哪來的
→ Belladonaa:教士留不住 A-Gon 的
推 BlGP:我覺得丟魚換大物OK啊
推 nicknhit:想要大物又想要大魚...那每年選秀都有大魚 沒幾年不就
→ nicknhit:三十隊都AS隊了
→ nicknhit:現實就是再大物的魚也未必真的長成大物
推 KoAnne:Kelly假如在Petco Park加持下，可能會讓他像個前三號
→ KoAnne:但絕對不是會讓人後悔的，畢竟A-Gon根本不用在證明什麼
推 myde:這交易很OK了，A-Gon可是金手套和40HR的明星球員阿
推 nicknhit:我比較擔心的是阿岡不是動了手術嗎？這對他打擊不會影響
→ nicknhit:而且還換了大約....不知道有沒有大大可以說明一下他的傷
推 HcaS:mvp打太多了吧...要好料的哪可能不丟好作物-.-
→ nicknhit:上面第一句最後面應該是「不會影響嗎」？
→ nicknhit:再者  他是左打...芬威對左打不算友善吧？
推 myde:我很期待看他反向打出綠色怪物，就像老爹那樣:)
推 dapei842110:右外野的牛棚牆移近了幾呎
推 DWoods:MLB有實績的大物和雜魚王有巨大的差別
推 EndlessJazz:能換到AGon 這價碼很合理吧
推 s93rm6:換到AGON這種等級，合理啦
→ Belladonaa:只要贏延長合約 這筆交易是雙贏
→ Belladonaa:    能
→ v32767:Kelly未來很可能是前段先發  但能換A-GON也沒什麼好後悔的
推 maikxz:想想看當初07 的Beckett >.^
→ maikxz:忘了還有賣肉
推 tsubasa6405:Belladonaa大說的對 只有一種情況會吐血啦
→ tsubasa6405:給他個七年約還堅持不肯延長 要跑去試水溫就囧了