Re: [討論] 貝基特 再起不能?

[nolander (Dent)]

※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/4ckk63v
: This is one of those good news/bad news things, so let’s start with the good
: news: Jack Morris, David Cone and Dave Stewart are just three All-Stars who
: endured seasons as bad as Josh Beckett [stats]’s woeful 2010. So the
: erstwhile Red Sox [team stats] ace at least shares solid company.
: Better prepare yourself for the bad news, though, because it’s a doozy:
: Virtually every pitcher to struggle like Beckett did last season not only was
: never the same, but almost to a man failed to produce a single, solitary
: above-average season thereafter.
有好消息也有壞消息 首先是好消息: Jack Morris, David Cone and Dave Stewart
是三個跟賈詡一樣從超級賽亞人變成去年的撒旦等級後還仍然恢復不錯的
但壞消息則相當慘烈:基本上所有經歷那樣大低谷的投手都從未恢復身手
連一個像樣的完整球季都很少見
: The results are actually kind of staggering. And while they have no bearing
: on whether Beckett will bounce back in 2011, they should at least give Red
: Sox fans pause following last year’s 6-6, 5.78 ERA disaster that can only
: partially be chalked up to injuries.
這樣的結果很傷人...儘管下個球季賈詡能否反彈並非由這些歷史決定
襪迷們仍能稍微感受到:上季的爆炸可能不只是因為受傷
: So what are we talking about? Thanks to the magic of baseball-reference.com,
: it was easy to sort for pitchers in their 30s who posted ERAs above 5.75
: while pitching at least 125 innings.
阿那我們重點在哪? 先感謝br的完整數據 讓我們能輕鬆就類似的投手作出類比
(30出頭 5.75以上ERA且投了超過125局)
: The search returned 69 such seasons by 66 different pitchers. Jaime Navarro
: appeared on the list three straight times (which helps explain why the White
: Sox were so mediocre in the late 1990s), while Tim Belcher made it twice.
: Of those 66 pitchers, only three managed to regain something even remotely
: approximating their form, at least as starters.
我們檢視了69季中超過66個不同的投手
Jaime Navarro出現了三次 (這也解釋了90s白襪平庸的戰果)
而Tim Belcher則是兩次 這66個投手中只有3名能回到接近原本水準
: Before his death in 2002, Cardinals starter Darryl Kile rebounded from an
: 8-13, 6.61 season with the Rockies in 1999 at age 30 to lead the NL in wins
: and go 20-9 with a 3.91 ERA for the Cardinals in 2000.
: He’s probably Beckett’s best hope at a comparable because he had another
: outstanding season in 2001 (16-11, 3.09) and was off to a good start in 2002
: (5-4, 3.72) before dying of natural causes in his hotel room.
: But extenuating circumstances clearly surround Kile’s return to form, the
: most obvious being that the two worst seasons of his career took place in the
: noted launching pad of Coors Field. Once he escaped the Rockies, he was an
: All-Star again.
02年辭世前 紅鳥投手Darryl Kile從8-13, 6.61(當時是落磯人)反彈到20-9, 3.91ERA
他大概是我們對賈詡(要是還有)最大的希望 因為他隔年又投出了16-11, 3.09的表現
02年 自然死於飯店之前他也投出5-4, 3.72的成績
不過仔細看他的反彈 是從投手墳場離開後展現的
這可能對紅鳥時期的好表現作出一點解釋
: Next on the list is Belcher, and even he is hard to label a success story. He
: went 7-15, 5.89 with the Tigers at age 32 in 1994. Two years later he won 15
: games for the Royals with a 3.92 ERA, but that season was the outsider in an
: otherwise miserable run of seven poor years to end his career.
: Then there’s Livan Hernandez, who came out of nowhere to post decent 10-12,
: 3.66 numbers with the Nationals last year. He had compiled a 5.28 ERA over
: the previous four seasons and would anyone really be surprised if he returns
: to that level in 2011?
下一個投手是Belcher 他的反彈稱不上多成功...
94球季在老虎他投出7-15, 5.89 當時他32歲
兩年後身在皇家的他繳出15勝 3.92的ERA 但這在他生涯末期中是明顯的界外值...
然後是Livan Hernandez 去年莫名的繳出10-12 3.66的成績
在此之前他的累計ERA是5.28...
: And that’s literally it. Sure, pitchers like Darren Oliver and Jeff Fassero
: remade themselves into relievers with some degree of success, but the Red Sox
: aren’t paying Beckett $63 million over the next four seasons to become a
: latter-day Ramiro Mendoza.
: They’re paying him to anchor their rotation.The same was once said of lots
: of good pitchers, like Morris, Cone and Stewart. Or Al Leiter, Pat Dobson,
: Ramon Martinez and Rick Sutcliffe.
: Then they had seasons like Beckett’s 2010 and their careers were over. It’s
: hard to fathom that Beckett could experience a similar fate, but for whatever
: it’s worth, the game’s entire history is working against him.
然後? 沒別人了 當然 Darren Oliver跟Jeff Fassero在RP生涯找到價值
然而紅襪球團付給賈詡63M/4y並不是期待得到一個Ramiro Mendoza而已
這些錢是為了一個穩定的前段輪值 就好像Morris, Cone and Stewart
或是Al Leiter, Pat Dobson, Ramon Martinez and Rick Sutcliffe一樣
人們期待他們亮眼的表現 不過他們簽約後跟賈詡一樣投了一個慘烈的球季後就結束生涯
當然現在賈詡下季表現如何很難說 但過去的紀錄要我們不要期待太多......

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◆ From: 76.240.247.254
推 MazdaRx7:感謝翻譯 , !
推 foreverkn:他很貴
推 hsupigskin:所以這一季我們還是要防守也求，不，防守野球嗎？
※ 編輯: nolander        來自: 72.207.15.248        (01/14 13:24)
推 Orcish:
推 TrumpetFlute:
推 MinChuan:先求有4.5吧~= =|||
推 MingXDD:那就當第三個吧
推 pitt911:看來要再找另一個賽亞人跟他一起合體來提升戰力了
推 JoshBeckett:我覺得我要控制我一局爆的問題 除此之外呢?
推 Carmelo3:HR....  去年被敲太多
推 alex710707:去年問題是球速沒以前快? 還是失去尾勁?
推 Carmelo3:K/9沒啥掉  但BB/9 HR/9都飆高
→ v32767:Stuff還在的話  應該是可以再變回超級賽亞人的
推 alex710707:北極恢復的話 紅襪就爽了 就算雷基跟牛肉維持去年爛成
推 maikxz:Lackey去年爛歸爛 但還至少吃了不少局數
推 myde:作個夢吧，希望Lackey、Beckett都恢復到07年的水準
推 GJIRO:最怕Beckett失去他直球的stuff
推 JoshBeckeet:我今年會恢復的^^
推 g005522:樓上加油
推 killwhite:基數年
推 MinChuan:北極爆走吧~!!雷基恢復吧!!維尼可以吞局數就好了= =|||
推 vict1:打線這麼強，局數不要吃的太慘，ERA4以下也不算很差吧
推 maikxz:有三隻個能投200IP ERA 4 打賽不要太跨張幾乎等於可以送進
→ maikxz:打線     進後賽 棒球只要送進季後賽就是成功的一季了
推 alex710707:11年的陣容 光是進季後賽 球團跟球迷都不會滿意的
推 spko:三隻SP可以200IP + ERA 4，但是牛棚炸掉，一樣進不了季後賽啊
推 betadu:今年已經補了不少牛了 至少已經少了屌卡門還有雷猛這兩隻..
→ betadu:再炸的話也不能怪Theo了XD
推 alex710707:從陣容來看 明年野手跟RP應該不會是問題 不確定性在SP
推 esunbank:今年補成這樣了  沒拿個第一、或第二  很難說得過去吧
推 dapei842110:DL大神一出什麼都很難講 還是健康一整年 該有的就會有
推 highlightboy:反覆投速球和曲球的結果 打者很好判斷 這是問題點
推 maxspeed150:two-pitch只要兩種球路都好 根本不好判斷
→ maxspeed150:問題就是他的球路出了問題
→ maxspeed150:去年的速球根本被打爛
推 Carmelo3:如果two pitch就被打爆  那他早就不在MAJOR了...
推 whitetiger:明年不反彈的話，球團就囧了...