[漁塭] Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects

[alex710707 (alex)]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/13/2633672/boston-red-sox-top-20-
prospects-for-2012#storyjump

1) Xander Bogaerts, SS, Grade B+: Borderline A-. Jumped from Dominican Summer
League to Sally League and showed very impressive power, needs polish and
experience but terrific upside. May end up at third base. I have him at a
B+ right now, but that is conservative and he may end up at an A- by the
time the book goes to press.

2) Matt Barnes, RHP, Grade B+. Has the build and stuff of a rotation anchor,
and improved every year in college. Still some rough edges and he won't get
to the majors as fast as Trevor Bauer or Danny Hultzen, but he could be a
real steal at 19th-overall in the '11 draft.

3) Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Grade B: Plate discipline/strike zone issues
increase risk premium and preclude a higher grade right now, but he has
the power and glove of a prototype third baseman. Needs 400 at-bats in
Triple-A.

4) Ryan Lavarnway, C-DH, Grade B. You can make a case for B+ based just
on his bat but defensive questions are enough to drop down a notch. His
glove isn't good, but I think his reputation as a total butcher is a
little overblown. Whatever they do with him, he'll hit.

5) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Grade B: Higher ceiling than Lavarnway and better
plate discipline than Middlebrooks, but hasn't seen full-season ball yet.
Needs better defense but I like the bat. B+ or higher possible next year.

6) Brandon Jacobs, OF, Grade B: Tool-laden outfielder with 20/20 power/speed
potential, remains raw with the strike zone but made significant progress in
2011. B+ or higher possible with further refinement.

7) Blake Swihart, C, Grade B-: Risky demographic as a high school catcher,
but has plenty of offensive upside and should stick behind the plate. Another
guy who could rank much higher once he gets some at-bats under his belt.

8) Sean Coyle, 2B, Grade B-: Hit for power, stole bases, drew walks, adapting
well to second base defensively. A second baseman who can hit is harder to
find than an outfielder, so I put him ahead of Brentz.

9) Bryce Brentz, OF, Grade B-: Prototype right fielder, with power, strong
arm, strikes out a lot, questionable plate discipline, error-prone. Could
develop into Ryan Ludwick-type hitter, or he could fizzle in Triple-A.

10) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Grade B-: Jekyll-Hyde season, both statistically
and scout-wise, with large variations in quality of both stuff and command
from start to start making it hard to get a proper read on him.

11) Henry Owens, LHP, Grade B-: We need to see him pitch, but one of my
favorite high school pitchers from the '11 draft due to feel for pitching.
Will his velocity pick up?

12) Jose Iglesias, SS, Grade B-: Glove-only player at this point. His bat has
been awful so far, but young for Triple-A and improvement is plausible. No
power, might hit for a decent average someday. Defense superb.

13) Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Grade B-: Great glove, good feel for the strike
zone, excellent track record in college until 2011. Did the switch to the
less-potent bats expose his flaws? Could rank much higher, or much lower,
a year from now.

14) Alex Wilson, RHP, Grade B-: Turned things around after rough Double-A
debut in '10, will be ready for the majors sometime in '12. Could be
fourth/fifth starter for some teams but more likely a reliever in Boston.

15) Brandon Workman, RHP, Grade B-: Profiles as workhorse starter. Workman
the workhorse. Alliteration.

16) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: Got knocked around in major league trial,
has the stuff to be a four/five starter if he improves his location.
Like Wilson, he could end up in relief.

17) Felix Doubront, LHP, Grade C+: Yet another guy who could be a four/five
starter for many teams but is more likely to end up a reliever in Boston.

18) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade C+: The good news is that his fastball
continues to improve and he's been up to 97 MPH in winter ball. The bad news
is that his secondary pitches went backwards last year, and he was
annihilated in Double-A. Turns 22 in February, still has time to figure it
out, but definitely in the high-risk category at this point. (Someone asked
me why Stolmy went from almost being left off the list to #18. I tapped a
source that gave me better info than I had when I was doing the preliminary
list. That is why these things take time).

19) Christian Vazquez, C, Grade C+: Repeating the league, but was still
age-appropriate for Low-A, with sudden power outburst to go with impressive
defense. Could rank as high as 13. (This was originally a B- but I moved him
down a little. He could still move back up)

20) Kolbrin Vitek, 3B, Grade C+: Didn't hit for power in High-A and defense
is rough, but still has one of the better offensive ceilings in the system.

21) Miles Head, 1B, Grade C+: Ineffective in the New York-Penn League in '10,
but something clicked last year, hit for power and average in Low-A. Power
carried forward to High-A but he's got contact issues to work out, and
right-handed hitting first baseman have an uphill battle. Could rank much
higher next year.

22) Cody Kukuk, LHP, Grade C+: Pitched high school baseball a mile from my
house. Projectable lefty, if you want to dream he could turn into Jon Lester,
but we need to see him pitch.

23) Raul Alcantara, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm with good results in rookie ball,
still refining his secondary pitches. High ceiling.

24) Jose Vinicio, SS, Grade C+: Cost $2,000,000 to sign in 2009. Draws raves
on defense, hit .291 and stole 19 bases in GCL, but lack of power and poor
plate discipline could hinder him.

25) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Grade C+: Thrived after moving to relief, could
surprise in 2012.

OTHERS: Lars Anderson, 1B; Chris Balcom-Miller, RHP; Drake Britton, LHP;
Keith Couch, RHP; Alex Hassan, OF; Jeremy Hazelbaker, OF; Williams Jerez,
OF; Che-Hsuan Lin, OF; Heiker Meneses, INF; Frank Montas, RHP;
Kendrick Perkins, OF; Noe Ramirez, RHP; Henry Ramos, OF; Kyle Stroup, RHP;
Oscar Tejeda, INF.


COMMENTARY:

You are going to see a wide variation in prospect lists for the Red Sox
this winter. Once you get past the very top group, it is difficult to order
the B-/C+ guys.

This system is quite deep, and it could look even better a year from now.
Many of the B-/C+ players have high upside but haven't played much yet,
and with more at-bats/innings under their belts they could vault up the
prospect lists. On the other hand, there's also a lot of risk: keep in mind
what happened to Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton.

I love Bogaerts and he's just scratching the surface of what is possible.
There is the core of a very strong power offense here with Lavarnway,
Middlebrooks, Coyle, Cecchini, and Brentz. Jacobs made big progress
converting his tools into skills last year, although he needs more work
with the zone. As much as I like his glove, I have a lot of doubts about
Iglesias' bat, but will still cut him some slack due to his age and lack
of experience.

Barnes looks like the best of the pitchers to me, and he hasn't even pitched
yet. Wilson, Weiland, and Doubront aren't spectacular, but at least give
some options for '12. I have no idea what to expect from Pimentel, and
Ranaudo is an enigma. High school lefties Owens and Kukuk offer good hope
from the '11 draft, but again we need to see them pitch.

The "others" category includes potentially valuable role players like
Hassan, Hazelbaker and Lin, mixed in with high-upside-low-polish players
Jerez, Perkins, Montas, and Ramos.

Overall, this is a strong system that could look even better in a year.
It could also look a lot worse if the upside gambles don't pan out.

John Sickles排的跟Bosox prospect排的有點不一樣 WMB名次較低 鷹俠甚至跌出前十名
2010 2011年選進的潛力排的蠻高的 10名內有6個是這兩年選的 但Matt Barnes一球都沒
投就第2有點誇張. 前10名大部分不確定性高但潛力也高 值得期待尤其Bogaerts

投手Wilson, Weiland,Doubront這三個成熟度高的投手12年應該會上MLB
但天花板比較低 排名也比較後面

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◆ From: 122.125.50.213
推 jameshu0910:不錯了啦~到第15名都還有B-,Bogaerts應該不會待在SS
推 jameshu0910:鷹俠的評語...Glove-only player at this point.
推 maxspeed150:Barnes名次會高 應該主要是因為他被預計很快就能上
→ maxspeed150:當然就如同文中提到的 不像Bauer或Hulzten直接搶輪值
→ maxspeed150:可是他的ETA應該是2012 Sept.~2013吧
→ maxspeed150:這兩年選秀真的帶來不少天分啊.....
→ alex710707:John sickles這份排名應該是重未來性 不認為是因Barnes
→ alex710707:較快上MLB
推 philidov:所以Alex Wilson明年可以上來補牛棚 ??
推 aibakoji:Sickals與其說是重未來性，不如說是他對Tools比較差但能
→ aibakoji:把天分轉化成小聯盟成績的球員會有比較好的評價
→ alex710707:問題Bailey運動家的..希望不會動到10 11年選到這批新秀
推 myde:如果可以交易到Gio Gonzalez，動哪個新秀就都可以接受