[紅襪] A LOOK AT THE SHANE VICTORINO DEAL

[seekforever (sadnessflower)]

http://tinyurl.com/aywduep

NEW MARKET REALITY:
A LOOK AT THE SHANE VICTORINO DEAL AND HOW IT FITS RED SOX’PLANS

By Alex Speier

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The Red Sox wanted a right fielder with the legitimate
defensive range to play center for a few reasons. First, the team wants
someone with the ability to handle Fenway Park’s expansive piece of right
field real estate. Secondly, the team wants to have roster depth and
flexibility to feature a solid backup plan should Jacoby Ellsbury be
unavailable at any point in 2013 or for Jackie Bradley Jr. come 2014. And, if
the team either trades Ellsbury this year or if Bradley — contrary to
expectations for his development path — isn’t big league ready by the start
of 2014, the team needs a fallback option in center, while also getting a
player who can fill the vacancy that exists in right field in 2013 and,
depending on the pace of Bryce Brentz‘s development, perhaps 2014 as well.

簽下一個守備範圍大到可以守CF的右外野手有幾個理由
1. 芬威廣大的右外野
2. 提供Ellsbury受傷或被交易時的保險
3. 在Jackie Bradley Jr.上來前頂住CF
4. 可以視Bryce Brentz的發展情形決定如何處理Ellsbury

Enter Shane Victorino.

According to a major league source, the Red Sox reached a three-year
agreement. Reports peg the value of the deal at $39 million ($13 million a
year) for the outfielder, who just turned 32 in the past week. Victorino
projects, according to another source, to be the everyday right fielder for
the Sox while also providing the center field protection that the team needs.
The deal isn’t yet final, as he needs to take a physical for it to become
official.

Victorino，32歲的外野手，
39M/3yrs的合約等體檢後才正式生效。
這張合約將cover他的32-34歲

The contract might seem like a steep cost of admission for a player who is
coming off the worst season of his career. Victorino hit .255/.321/.383/.704
with 11 homers and 39 steals in 45 attempts for the Phillies and (after a
mid-year trade) Dodgers in 2012. Those marks were down considerably from a
career line of .275/.341/.430/.770.

在他打出生涯最差的一季(.255/.321/.383)後 這張約看起來有點貴

The Sox are hopeful that he can bounce back closer to career norms. But even
if he doesn’t, his defense and speed on the bases give him value even if the
2012 season represented something other than an aberration. Moreover, he does
not cost the Red Sox a draft pick, as he was ineligible for a one-year
qualifying offer from the Dodgers after having been traded mid-year.

但他生涯有.275/.341/.430的三圍
而且簽他不用賠選秀權

While Victorino is a switch-hitter and thus, in theory, could give the Sox
some left-right lineup balance, he struggled badly against right-handed
pitchers in 2012 (hitting .229/.296/.333/.629 against righties, and
eventually trying to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers),
compared to excellent marks against lefties (.323/.388/.518/.906). That is in
keeping with Victorino’s career trends. Against lefties, he’s a career
.301/.373/.508/.881 hitter, while against righties, he has a
.267/.330/.402/.732 line.

理論上他是個左右開弓 但是右打比較好(.301/.373/.508)

“There are no perfect players,” observed one team source.

That being the case, the Sox wanted to continue an offseason that has seen
them address most of their needs without sacrificing their future. The team
has added two outfielders (Victorino, Jonny Gomes), a first baseman (and
potentially catcher) in Mike Napoli and another catcher in David Ross without
sacrificing any prospects or draft picks. That, in turn, follows GM Ben
Cherington‘s stated desire to build a strong team for 2013 without
compromising the team’s long-term outlook for 2014 and beyond.

紅襪想要在不犧牲未來的前提下補洞
季末已經補了2個OF(Victorino, Jonny Gomes)、1個1B跟代班C(Napoli)
而沒有賠掉任何選秀權 讓我們不用在13年的成績與未來間妥協

But what of the cost of Victorino’s deal? Line up the top center fielders
who have signed this offseason and it doesn’t necessarily look so out of
place:

到底Victorino貴不貴？看看以下幾筆

B.J. Upton, Braves
Cost: 5 years, $75 million and a draft pick.
Age during contract: 28-32
2012: .246/.298/.454/.752, 28 HR, 31 SB
Career: .255/.336/.422/.758, 20 HR (162-game avg), 39 SB (162-game avg)

Angel Pagan, Giants
Cost: 4 years, $40 million
Age during contract: 31-34
2012: .288/.338/.440/.778, 8 HR, 29 SB
Career: .281/.333/.424/.757, 10 HR (162-game avg), 29 SB (162-game avg)

Shane Victorino, Red Sox
Cost: 3 years, $38 million
Age during contract: 32-34
2012: .255/.321/.383/.704, 11 HR, 39 SB
Career: .275/.341/.430/.770, 14 HR (162-game avg), 30 SB (162-game avg)

So, Victorino cost slightly more per year than Pagan, but he comes off the
books sooner — falling into the Sox’ blueprint of acquiring players on
shorter-term deals. He also costs less per year and required fewer years than
Upton — and he didn’t require the sacrifice of a draft pick.

平均年薪比Pagan貴，但年限少了一年－符合目前簽短約的建軍哲學
平均年薪跟年限都比Upton哥短，而且不用賠選秀權

Again, it seems expensive, but center fielders are very rarely available on
the free agent market. In the previous four offseasons, the most notable
center fielders to move in free agency were Coco Crisp, Mike Cameron, Marlon
Byrd and Willy Taveras. If the Sox wanted a player capable of being a center
fielder, they were going to have to pay a premium to land him.

看起來有點貴，不過市場上CF難尋
過去四個球季市場上的CF只有Coco、Cameron、Marlon Byrd、Willy Taveras
（註：現在市場上剩下的純CF只有Michael Bourn，預計要價80M/5yrs以上）

Still, signing Victorino shouldn’t prevent the Sox from other moves. Between
the departures of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto
in the Dodgers blockbuster, and the departures since last year of Daisuke
Matsuzaka, Kevin Youkilis, Bobby Jenks and others, the team had more than
$100 million come off its books.

簽下Victorino不影響其他繼續進行的動作
跟道奇的大交易加上季末到期約，清出了100M以上的空間

To date, while the Sox have re-signed David Ortiz for a lower average annual
value (AAV) than he played under last year, the team has spent approximately
$34 million in terms of AAV on four free agents (Victorino, Gomez, Napoli,
Ross). In other words, the team still has plenty of remaining flexibility
beyond what it has spent to this point.

換言之，球隊還有錢可花

So far, all of the Sox’ moves have addressed areas of need. They haven’t
prevented the team from being able to address other areas (starting pitcher,
perhaps a shortstop, bench depth), and they haven’t cost the team either
prospects or draft picks. In that context, so far, everything is proceeding
according to a fairly well-defined blueprint.

目前為止的動作補上了一些洞，接下來就是處理SP、可能的SS昇級、板凳深度，
一切都按照一個良好的計畫進行中。



--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 111.243.90.186
推 nicknhit:恩，這幾個約都簽的很不錯或者是不差 至少確實有個方針
→ nicknhit:雖然我本來比較偏好臘肉哥來站1B 不過看到那個約就滿意了
→ nicknhit:畢竟臘肉哥用這種價格多半是拿不下的。如果可以再來一張
→ nicknhit:39/3簽下Swisher，我會把掐哥當神GM看的XD
→ seekforever:我比較擔心下一張39M/3yrs會給Dempster....
推 nicknhit:拜託不要.....0rz
推 pitt911:或許不會花錢簽蛋皮  而是拿捕手加上魚苗去換別人的前段
→ mygoing:其實還ok的約啦 只差沒在美聯打過
推 tlchen:文中似乎沒提到增建，芬威右外野一直很大
推 myde:其實有補強我已經很開心，都拿第七順位了，最爛也就狀元阿XD
推 bezlin:芬威想增建不會是右外野 而是觀眾席
推 alex710707:我怕的是明年不上不下
推 maxspeed150:不上不下就不上不下啊.....本來就沒對明年有什麼期待
→ maxspeed150:怕是怕因為一些意外 造成戰績超出預期/低於預期太多
→ maxspeed150:打亂原本規劃 做出太多狗急跳牆的事情
推 KayRain:這約其實不貴 是因為剛簽長度價錢類似的拿波里相比覺得比
→ KayRain:較差 其實還是水準以上的約
推 nicknhit:Alex說的應該今年丟了80M補強結果明年只拿到20順位之類的
→ nicknhit:既沒有2014高順位選秀權也沒有2013季後賽吧
推 alex710707:進不了季後就乾脆爛一點2014年再來個前十順位,不然明年
→ alex710707:要簽FA沒前十又可能會掉選秀權
→ alex710707:今年會拿到第七其實也跟運氣差還有GM 8月底開始放棄有
推 nicknhit:我也是這麼想的，說老實話今年的FA市場沒有決定性的大物
→ alex710707:關 我看GM最近簽的就是不想完全放棄明年 但不想丟選秀
→ alex710707:也不想給太大的約 擋到未來薪資的彈性
推 roverchi:芬威的右外野增建了喔？
推 nicknhit:順便問一下  今年我們不管簽誰都不會丟選秀吧？
推 tanaka0826:http://0rz.tw/flD8L 丟掉第二高的
推 alex710707:只會掉第二輪給簽走的球原本球隊 然後該隊再拿一三明治
推 tanaka0826:完全要感謝季末那段衝刺
推 nicknhit:瞭解了  感謝兩位大大補充 不過今年策略應該很明顯
→ nicknhit:我是蠻希望明年再來個前十順位的 2014選秀深度好像比明年
→ nicknhit:好很多
推 alex710707:其實這三年傷兵多加上運氣真的糟到極點 現在陣容如果
→ alex710707:終結者Bard跟Bailey其中一人能頂好 加上再簽個
→ alex710707:Mccarthy頂好三號 明年也不是沒希望
→ alex710707:但最可能的是掉到11~20名之間沒季後又沒保護選秀順位
推 nicknhit:其實我覺得換個隊醫團隊搞不好才是我們最需要的補強...
→ nicknhit:這幾年實在太多搞笑事件了...
推 maxspeed150:我們的隊醫能應付McCarthy嗎
推 nicknhit:印象中好像去年有換？但感覺還是蠻鳥蛋的...
→ seekforever:對不起 我把expansive看程expansion 沒有增建
※ 編輯: seekforever     來自: 111.243.90.186       (12/05 17:29)
推 meteorhades:倒是覺得McCarthy真的可以試一下 畢竟現在要簽他真的
→ meteorhades:不貴
推 jameshu0910:關於QO的補償不是這樣吧,應該是前十順位第一輪受保護
→ jameshu0910:拿掉第二輪,11順位後第一輪就沒保護了,而球員原東家只
→ jameshu0910:能拿個一&二輪間的三明治,新東家被拿掉的順位不會給原
→ jameshu0910:東家
推 hit10116:總版那邊為我們簽的球員戰成一片不知道是在幹嘛="=
推 KOSHON:就有人手癢在練釣技啊。
推 hit10116:真有趣  在吵的都不是襪迷XD
推 sky1686:XDDDD
推 dragon2000:覺得有點貴 但好在只有三年 勉強可以接受
推 roverchi:說真的~我到現在還是不知道那兩個人的約有啥好比較的...
→ roverchi:應該是說~我看不出爭點~XD
推 maikxz:推文根本ㄏㄏ
推 hit10116:每次看到Victorino就想到http://ppt.cc/fDMd
推 sky1686:那影片有一個  Verlander為啥會突然砸打者 擺明故意@@?!
推 lovemost:Michael Bourn真的會要這麼貴嗎...
推 Jaicabai:樓樓上 V壯那次超好笑 他是要牽制一壘 結果投向本壘..xD
推 sky1686:哈哈哈哈  是太累了喔XDDDD
推 Jaicabai:本壘牽制當初的文章在MLB版 7161篇 7165篇