[討論] Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

[seekforever (sadnessflower)]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox.html

After a last place finish in 2012, a heralded offseason helped bring the Red
Sox a World Series title in 2013.  What can the Sox and GM Ben Cherington do
for an encore this winter?

Cherington如何再一次重演去年季後的成功？

Guaranteed Contracts　保障合約

Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $109MM through 2021
Shane Victorino, OF: $26MM through 2015
Clay Buchholz, SP: $19.945MM through 2015
John Lackey, SP: $15.25MM through 2014
David Ortiz, DH: $15MM through 2014
Jake Peavy, SP: $14.5MM through 2014
Ryan Dempster, SP: $13.25MM through 2014
Jon Lester, SP: $13MM through 2014
Jonny Gomes, OF: $5MM through 2014
Koji Uehara, RP: $4.25MM through 2014
Craig Breslow, RP: $3.925MM through 2014
David Ross, C: $3.1MM through 2014


Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)　具仲裁資格球員

Andrew Bailey, RP (5.000): $4.3MM projected salary (non-tender candidate)
Andrew Miller, RP (5.062): $1.9MM
Franklin Morales, RP (5.007): $1.8MM
Mike Carp, LF (3.010): $1.3MM
Junichi Tazawa, RP (3.086): $1.1MM


Free Agents　自由球員

Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Joel Hanrahan, John McDonald, Mike Napoli,
Jarrod Saltalamacchia


Other Payroll Obligations　

$3.9MM to Los Angeles Dodgers, as part of nine-player trade in August 2012
A winning strategy always draws imitators, and there's no doubt many clubs
took note of how the Red Sox returned to prominence after eschewing
big-ticket moves in favor of less-expensive and more measured free agent
signings in the 2012-13 offseason.  Adding the right mid-tier free agents can
definitely help turn a 69-game winner into a World Series champion in one
offseason --- just as long as you have the likes of David Ortiz, Dustin
Pedroia, Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, John Lackey and Clay Buchholz already
on your roster and they all make big rebounds from down seasons.  While the
free agents, improved team chemistry, and addition of John Farrell as manager
unquestionably helped, Boston's worst-to-first title run isn't as much a case
of a bad team suddenly becoming great as it was a good team getting back on
track after a Murphy's Law season in 2012.

成功的策略總是會讓其他競爭者模仿，
可以預期有很多球隊會學習去年紅襪以數個中階球員代替一個明星建隊的模式

不過並不是每個分區墊底的球隊都能突然變成冠軍隊，
紅襪今年的成功也歸功於他們原有核心的反彈

The strength of the Sox core is illustrated in their list of guaranteed
contracts and the four arbitration-eligible players likely to be tendered
contracts.  Those 16 players account for just under $128MM in payroll and
only three are guaranteed money beyond next season.  This gives the Red Sox
tons of flexibility in filling their few holes, whether it's re-signing some
key players, taking on a big salary in a trade or making more forays into
free agency.  While their core is strong, the Sox aren't afraid to shake
things up in order to make the roster even stronger over the long run.

在明年季後只剩下三張保障約，這給紅襪很多補洞的彈性，
不管是重簽現有的核心或經由交易吃下明星球員的大約甚至在自由球員的競逐都是選項
即便核心球員很棒，也不排除為了長期的成功而在這個季後重新整理陣容

Let's start with Ellsbury, Boston's biggest internal free agent case.  The
Red Sox made at least two attempts to lock up their center fielder before he
hit the open market, and now Ellsbury heads into free agency wearing another
World Series ring and coming off a .298/.355/.426 season that included nine
homers, 92 runs scored and a league-best 52 stolen bases.  MLBTR's Tim
Dierkes ranks Ellsbury second on his free agent power rankings and recently
guessed that Ellsbury and agent Scott Boras could find a contract in the
$150MM range.

在兩次試圖重簽Ellsbury失敗後他成為了自由球員，
Tim　Dierkes預測他有可能拿到$150M以上的合約

If the bidding goes that high, Boston could be out, as the club is reportedly
unwilling to greatly exceed the $100MM threshold for Ellsbury.  I'd still
consider the Red Sox as the favorites to sign Ellsbury but it wouldn't be the
first time that Boras has scored an inflated contract for one of this
clients.  If a team (or teams) push the bidding past $125MM, expect Ellsbury
to be playing in another team's uniform in 2014.  It's not that Boston
couldn't afford such a contract, but in the wake of the Carl Crawford deal,
the Sox are wary about paying a speed-based player big dollars into his 30's.

紅襪並不是負擔不起他想要的大約，但在Crawford之後，
球隊對給即將進入三十歲以速度見長的球員九位數字大約一事很有戒心
如果他的價碼超過125M紅襪應該會選擇放手

If Ellsbury leaves, the Sox could give Jackie Bradley a chance at the center
field job.  Bradley (a consensus top-40 prospect in preseason rankings from
MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law) has put up big minor league
numbers and could join Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts as the latest
homegrown prospects to step into the Boston lineup.  Bradley could be used in
a platoon to begin with, and the Sox could look for a right-handed hitting CF
in the mold of a Rajai Davis or a Reed Johnson to add to the outfield depth
chart.

JBJ初期可能會以platoon的方式，跟Rajai Davis或Reed Johnson這類的右打一起頂CF

Napoli has said he wants to return to Boston, and a reunion could happen if a
three-year/$42MM contract is indeed Napoli's price.  There have been rumors,
however, that the club isn't keen on giving Napoli three guaranteed years and
Boston's pursuit of Jose Dariel Abreu could be a sign that the Sox are ready
to move on from Napoli.  Mike Carp dominated right-handed pitching in 2013,
though his less-impressive career splits indicate that the Sox would probably
prefer to keep Carp as a part-timer rather than a semi-everyday first
baseman.

Napoli說他想回來，不過紅襪並不熱衷於給他三年保障約
之前對古巴巨砲Jose Dariel Abreu的追求也表現出紅襪可能不見得非他不可

Carp在今年屠殺右投，但他生涯都被左殺讓紅襪無法放心的拿他當全職1B

First base is a relatively easy enough position to fill that the Sox might
prefer the compensatory first round draft pick that they would receive if
Napoli signs elsewhere.  Stephen Drew, similarly, might not be as valuable to
the Sox as a first-round pick, since the presence of Bogaerts and
Middlebrooks on the left side of the infield makes Drew's return problematic
(barring some position juggling).  Since Drew will draw attention from
several shortstop-needy teams, my guess is the Red Sox will move on.

一壘手相較之下容易找到替代品，讓紅襪可能寧可從拿胖身上拿到一個第一輪選秀
Drew的狀況也一樣，左半邊可以交給中川跟XB，我猜測紅襪不會留他

While Ellsbury, Napoli and Drew received qualifying offers, Jarrod
Saltalamacchia did not.  He could be re-signed but a slugging catcher who
isn't tied to any draft pick compensation will surely draw a lot of attention
from other teams, and another club could very well give him a four-year
contract (Boston is reportedly willing to give "Salty" as many as three
guaranteed years).  The Red Sox are, however, a team that could be
well-positioned to sign Brian McCann.  Boston would have to surrender their
first round draft pick (30th overall) to sign McCann but that's no big loss
since the club could gain as many as three compensatory picks if Ellsbury,
Napoli and/or Drew left.  A five-year, $80MM contract would allow the Sox to
install McCann behind the plate for a few seasons until Ryan Lavarnway, Blake
Swihart or Christian Vazquez emerges as a catcher of the future, and then
McCann could become a DH...provided that the ageless Ortiz isn't still
mashing, that is.

Salty沒收到QO，不用賠選秀的捕手炮將會吸引很多球隊的注意
紅襪最多願意給他三年約，但可能會有缺捕手的球隊出到第四年

或許Brian McCann是個好選擇，雖然要賠第一輪選秀，但只是第三十順位
從Ellsbury　Napoli　Drew的離開則可能拿回三個第一輪
五年$80M的約可以讓McCann在紅襪蹲幾年等新秀上來後接老爹ＤＨ的位置

Elsewhere around the diamond, if Drew leaves, the Sox are a good bet to sign
a veteran infielder who can play either third or shortstop if Bogaerts or
Middlebrooks struggles.  The Daniel Nava/Jonny Gomes platoon worked out well
in left field and should continue, while it will be business as usual for the
trio of Pedroia, Ortiz and Shane Victorino.  It could be argued that Boston's
offseason really began when they managed to lock up Pedroia to a below-market
extension in July, a move that should aid the Sox payroll for the better part
of the next decade.

The team boasts strong rotation depth with Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Jake
Peavy, Felix Doubront, Ryan Dempster and younger arms like Brandon Workman,
Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa in reserve.  If that wasn't enough, the
Sox have checked in on free agent starter Tim Hudson, which would seem to
hint that one or more of the current starters could be moved in a trade.  The
Red Sox could sell high on Lackey, or perhaps deal Peavy following his
postseason struggles.  Dempster would probably be the preferred candidate to
deal given rough 2013 season, age (36) and $13.25MM salary.  Boston could try
to mine trade value from his durability and home/away splits to prove that
Dempster could pitch better in a friendly environment than Fenway Park.

輪值很滿，但紅襪還是傳出對Tim Hudson有興趣
幾個選項：逢高賣出發球機，在季後賽的掙扎後賣ＰＶ，但最可能的是找到蛋皮的下家
蛋皮的吃局數能力跟主客場差異可以說明他換個球場或許會更好

Lester would be an even bigger trade chip if the Sox wanted to really make a
splash, and we know that Lester was shopped to the Royals last offseason
following his disappointing 2012 campaign.  While Lester could bring back a
huge return, it's more likely that the Red Sox will look to extend the
southpaw given his return to form in 2013 with a strong regular season and
outstanding playoff run.  No talks have yet taken place about another
multiyear extension, though the Sox already made the easy call of picking up
Lester's 2014 option.

Lester比上面幾個更有價值，但在這個季後賽的鬼神表現後，紅襪應該會想跟他簽長約

Koji Uehara easily passed the 55-game plateau that caused his 2014 option to
vest, and his emergence as a lockdown closer makes his $4.5MM salary for next
season seem like a bargain.  Uehara's dominance solved a lot of problems in
the Sox bullpen though there will be holes to fill as Andrew Bailey will
likely be non-tendered and Matt Thornton's option has already been declined.
 Joel Hanrahan could be re-signed to a low-cost deal since the former closer
missed almost all of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

上原今年史詩級的表現幫紅襪的牛棚掩蓋了很多問題，
Bailey可能被non-tendered，必須找個新的set-up
Hanrahan則可能低價簽回來當樂透

Between a surprise World Series win, their talented veteran core and the
minor league system with the best short-term potential of any in baseball,
these are heady times for the Red Sox.  It's probably too much to expect
everything to again work out for the franchise in 2014, just as it was
pessimistic to presume that things would continue to spiral downward
following the disastrous 2012 season.  If the team does even as half as good
a job filling their holes as they did last winter, however, expect more
postseason action at Fenway Park.

雖然很難再重新今年的驚奇，但看看紅襪的核心跟豐沛的農場，
他們在未來幾年應該都還是很有競爭力的季後賽球隊

--
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◆ From: 124.199.106.66
推 inixmasa:今年真的天時(沒受傷)人和(無內憂)都有了
推 HondaCBBig1:個人覺得今年的成功很難複製...就算我們自己也沒辦法.
推 redsoxnation:很神奇的一年！今年奪冠的感覺超棒！
推 lovemost:我還以為已經改成pool式了，原來還是會拿到簽
推 boston31:希望Bailey+Hanrahan可以留下
推 Jaicabai:簽的FA上原 夏威夷 拿胖 Drew表現都很棒甚至有的超乎預期
→ Jaicabai:的確是難以複製的成功經驗
→ Jaicabai:而且自家雜魚表現都很不錯 Nava 工作人 杜布朗 XB
推 watertip:樂透全開天天中獎的過年模式的確很難重複