[討論] Free Agent Profile: Chase Headley

[seekforever (sadnessflower)]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-chase-headley.html

One of the game’s best defensive third basemen reaches free agency this
winter in Chase Headley.  Headley’s MVP-caliber 2012 season saw his offense
reach lofty heights, but two years later that’s looking like an anomaly.

防守上他是最好的三壘手之一，不過１２年的打擊表現應該只是曇花一現


Strengths/Pros  優勢

Headley’s only Gold Glove award came in that magical 2012 season, but he’s
got a good chance at another one this year.  By measure of Ultimate Zone
Rating, Headley was the best defensive third baseman in baseball in 2014.  If
you prefer Defensive Runs Saved, Headley ranked third.  He was a top ten
defender in 2012 and ’13 as well, so it’s not just a one-year fluke.

就ＵＺＲ來看，他是今年防守表現最佳的三壘手，前兩年也差不多

Headley’s defense is a major contributor to his value, leading to roughly
four wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.  His WAR ranks
tenth among all third basemen for 2013-14, easily ahead of this offseason’s
likely top-paid third baseman, Pablo Sandoval.  At worst, Headley is Sandoval
’s equal, but defense hasn’t caught up with offense in terms of free agent
spending.

他的價值主要來自於防守端，貢獻了差不多４ＷＡＲ，

前兩季ＷＡＲ加起來在所有三壘手中排第１０名，比功夫熊貓還高

不過評估ＦＡ的價值時，一般而言還是比較注重攻擊面的表現

Headley hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs for the Padres in 2012, despite
playing half his games in San Diego.  19 of those home runs came in the season
’s final two months.  He hit .269/.343/.392 prior to that season and
.246/.338/.387 since, and it’s not hard to see that one of these is not like
the others.  However,  the switch-hitting Headley remains capable of a solid
on-base percentage, posting a .371 OBP and walk rate near 13% in his 224
plate appearances for the Yankees this year.  He is, on the whole, still an
above average hitter.

１２年打出.286/.376/.498跟３１支全壘打，

在１２年之前.269/.343/.392，１２年之後則是.246/.338/.387

今年在洋基的２２４個ＰＡ裡則有.371的上壘率跟１３％的保送率

整體而言，他仍然是一個高於平均的打者

Having been traded midseason, Headley is not eligible for a qualifying offer.
 Fellow free agents Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez will certainly require draft
pick forfeiture, and perhaps Aramis Ramirez too, but Headley is free of that
limitation.

跟Sandoval以及Hanley不同的是，他身上沒有綁ＱＯ


Weaknesses/Cons 弱點

Prior to being traded to the Yankees, Headley hit an abysmal .229/.296/.355
for the Padres in 307 plate appearances.  His Padres’ walk rate of 7.2% was
well below his career norm.

今年被交易到洋基之前，打擊成績是慘澹的.229/.296/.355，

保送率只有7.2%，也遠低於生涯平均

Upon the trade, Tony Blengino of FanGraphs examined Headley’s batted ball
profile, and it wasn’t promising.  Headley was in “steady offensive decline,
” wrote Blengino, who explained, “his decline in batted-ball production has
been solely attributable to diminished fly ball authority.”  Did Headley’s
224 plate appearances after the trade represent a reliable return to form?
 That will be a crucial question for offseason suitors.

交易當時FanGraphs的Tony Blengino在檢視了他打出去的球之後認為，

他打出去的多半是軟弱的飛球，這顯示他打擊上呈現穩定的衰退趨勢，

到洋基之後的２２４個ＰＡ樣本有大到足以顯示他的復活嗎？

Headley’s recent injury history may be perceived as a negative, though it
could also be considered an explanation for his offensive struggles in the
first half of the season.  He received an epidural in June and avoided going
on the DL for his back.  After the epidural, Headley hit .273/.359/.400 in
312 plate appearances.

最近幾季的傷病史也不好看，但這也可以被視為他打擊表現不佳的原因

在六月接受了硬膜外麻醉減輕疼痛後，他在３１２個ＰＡ裡打出了.273/.359/.400


Personal  個人特質

Headley was born in Colorado and resides in Tennessee with his family.  The
Headleys recently welcomed a new baby into the world, their second child.
 According to the Padres’ 2014 media guide, Headley played varsity baseball
and basketball all four years in high school in Colorado, and was also
valedictorian.  He began college at University of the Pacific in California
and later transferred to the University of Tennessee, where his older brother
was attending.

高中時是棒籃兩棲的明星球員

According to a profile by MLB.com’s Corey Brock in January 2013, Headley
owns a large farm in Western Kentucky and has a passion for bow hunting.  A
religious man since his freshman year in high school, Headley told Mark E.
Darnall and Bruce A. Darnall in 2012, “My goal is to have Jesus be the
center of everything.”

高一開始就是虔誠的基督徒


Market  市場情形

Any team without an established, reliable third baseman could consider
Headley this offseason.  Given the uncertainty that comes with Alex
Rodriguez, a return to the Yankees is possible.  The Red Sox, Astros, Royals,
Brewers, Giants, Blue Jays, and Nationals could also seek help at third base,
though some of those clubs might only want a short-term solution.

任何缺固定先發三壘手的球隊都會考慮他，

考慮到ＡＲＯＤ的不確定性，他也有可能回洋基

紅襪、皇家、藍鳥、國民、巨人（Sandoval離開的話）都可能會追他

Headley’s competition on the free agent market will include Pablo Sandoval,
Aramis Ramirez, and Hanley Ramirez.  Whether Aramis Ramirez hits the open
market could be a big factor for Headley, as well as whether Hanley Ramirez
signs as a third baseman.  The trade market could feature Luis Valbuena,
Trevor Plouffe, and Pedro Alvarez.

他在FA裡的競爭對手包括Sandoval跟Hanley（Aramis Ramirez已經確定留在酒鬼了）

其他可能被交易的三壘手還有Valbuena、Plouffe，以及Pedro Alvarez


Expected Contract  預期合約

Headley has never had a multiyear deal in his career, and I think he’ll
value long-term security this offseason.  The question is whether he signs a
three or four-year deal.  A few potential comparables to consider are Shane
Victorino‘s three-year, $39MM deal from two years ago and Jhonny Peralta‘s
four-year, $53MM deal from last offseason.  I think Headley will sign a
four-year, $48MM deal.

Headley生涯還沒拿過複數年合約，今年是最好的機會

問題只是他最後會拿到一份三年約還是四年約，

Victorino前年的三年３９Ｍ或Peralta去年的四年５３Ｍ都是比較的基準，

我認為他會拿到一份四年４８Ｍ的合約

－－－

今年要補的兩個大洞就是前段先發（兩個）跟三壘，

三壘的部分，ＦＡ裡比較明顯的升級大概就是他跟熊貓，

如果Sandoval要價超過100M，我想Headley會是ＦＯ比較可能的選擇

守備上也比較能夠彌補XB的不足


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推 HONYLO: 感覺Headley是個不錯的選擇   中川...
推 nati: 這隻打擊感覺很虛 走下坡速度可能比熊貓快 且隔壁用過 算了
推 TKWdEmoN: 12M也太貴了
推 nolander: 洋基不會放他的
推 toray: 懷念光頭王
推 kazamishu: NO
推 EndlessJazz: ㄧ年12M簽他，不如看Cecchini跟中川搶位
推 spko: 還不如多加幾M直接搶熊貓哩....
推 EndlessJazz: 況且明年內野新秀還有Marrero可以看ㄧ下
推 EndlessJazz: 基本上除了ACE真的缺，其餘位置我覺得都可讓小朋友搶
推 KayRain: 中川就是那樣了 三壘是一定要補的
推 CraigHansen: 明年C/SS/CF/RF 通通都是菜逼 3B肯定不會給小朋友
推 alex710707: 我寧願把錢集中在買1 2號,3B就給Holt跟Cecchini
→ alex710707: Holt不是新人 Bogaerts應該也會反彈,Mookie Betts
→ alex710707: 不太可能鳥掉,我們的野手不差 3B是問題 但1 2號問題
→ alex710707: 比較大
推 JButton: 既然菜就菜到底吧！
推 pedrovish: 同意alex大 剛好搶3B的都是很缺的純左打 我們這個冬天
→ pedrovish: 能用的薪資空間大概4XM 搶一二號先發剩下的補牛棚也是
→ pedrovish: 不錯
推 maxspeed150: 牛棚不需要花到太多錢 Workman, RDLR, Barnes, Webby
→ maxspeed150: ,Ranaudo這幾個都可以補
→ maxspeed150: 反正這群人中有一半遲早會進牛棚
→ mygoing: 之前看報導說這隻很合我們胃口 但真的不知怎麼合法
→ mygoing: 只知道守備不錯 攻擊面感覺也不是頗優 就非常一般
→ mygoing: 除非約簽的很划算 不然我也覺得我們不缺防守組的小朋友
推 maxspeed150: 1.他不用賠選秀權 2.守備很好 3.打擊可以期待
→ maxspeed150: 很掐靈頓的感覺
推 meteorhades: Holt的打擊站3B太不ok了 還是有需要簽一個3B 以Cheri
→ meteorhades: ngton的風格來看的確比較有可能簽這隻
推 Orcish:
推 alex710707: 如果有錢簽這隻我OK,但原因講了1 2號洞太大了,要簽頭
→ alex710707: 兩號SP會花大部分資金,再來3B不只有Holt, Cecchini,
→ alex710707: 真不行就把Bogaerts丟3B(SS轉3B打擊變爛的蠢話就省省
→ alex710707: 吧),SS可以丟給Marrero要花錢也要看哪邊缺口比較大
→ seekforever: 同意3B可以讓Cecchini試試看 他季中開始打擊有回來
→ seekforever: 不過Marrero在3A202個打席只有.210.260.285
→ seekforever: 怎麼看也不像是先發SS的料
→ seekforever: XB上來之前在3A.284.369.453 上來剩.240.297.362
→ seekforever: 至於移防到底有沒有關係 球團跟XB本人都說沒有
→ seekforever: 不過這篇CBS的專欄http://tinyurl.com/k6ola8y
→ seekforever: 則認為換守位會讓他在場上想太多 甚至影響信心
→ seekforever: 他打擊從移到三壘開始爛 是事實 有沒有相關 天曉得?
推 lovemost: 我到覺得那陣子是弱點被針對，又無法盡快找到手感
推 alex710707: 說實話 你貼的CBS專欄講的大部分都廢話....
→ alex710707: 我舉幾個轉到3B不是影響打擊的理由
→ alex710707: 1. 3B比SS好守  2. 他去年季後賽就是守3B 當時也還OK
→ alex710707: 3. Manny Machado, A Rod案例在先,他們轉3B也沒啥問題
→ alex710707: Bogaerts很明顯是因為打擊死角被抓到
推 alex710707: 至於Marrero 2013年升上AA一開始也是打不好,今年就在
→ alex710707: AA爆發了,今年AAA 202個打席不算多,明年打出比今年進
→ alex710707: 步的成績是很合理的預估,而且從球探報告來看,他打擊
→ alex710707: 也不是這麼爛
推 KAIS: 熊貓好貴約又長，這隻有錢的話有機會壓短約可考慮
推 KAIS: 但錢應該以SP為優先，再者左打棒不一定要直接壓3B,我會傾向
→ KAIS: 先看兩個SP怎麼補，若有交易整個陣形可能會變