[情報] Thoughts on Jhoulys Chacin by John Sickels

[Tulo02 (Rockies GOGO)]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/7/3/564170/thoughts-on-jhoulys-chacin

Thinking about Jhoulys Chacin

Chacin was signed by the Rockies in 2004 out of Venezuela. He didn't get to
North American until '07, when he went 6-3, 3.13 with a 77/26 K/BB in 92
innings for Casper in the Pioneer League, allowing 85 hits. He also posted a
2.70 GO/AO ratio. Scouts were impressed with his 90-92 MPH fastball,
curveball, and changeup, although the secondary pitches were erratic and
needed to be sharpened. I had one of those good intuitive feelings about him
when I wrote the 2008 book, and I gave him a big SLEEPER ALERT! header in his
book comment, rating him as a Grade C+ pending higher level data, but a
breakthrough candidate.

Said breakthrough is in progress Chacin went 10-1, 1.86 for Asheville this
spring, with a 98/30 K/BB in 111 innings, just 82 hits and three homers
allowed, and a 2.83 GO/AO. He was just promoted to Modesto in the Cal League
and threw eight shutout innings in his first start, fanning eight with one
walk and five hits given up. His velocity has picked up further, his breaking
stuff is reportedly sharper this year, he's still getting tons of grounders,
and his command has been solid.

Gradewise I am moving him up a full rating to Grade B+ and would definitely
put him in my Top 50 Pitchers list, although I don't know exactly where yet.
The combination of a fairly high strikeout rate, lots of grounders, and
improving stuff stands out. He's also just 20 years old. About the only
negative in his profile I can see is his size: he's a smallish guy at 6-1,
180. Personally I don't care about that, but some scouts worry it could limit
his long-term projectability. In theory it is harder for a shorter pitcher to
pitch down in the zone, but it's obviously not a problem for Chacin.

He has to get through the injury nexus, of course. Lots of bad things could
happen. But Chacin taken a huge step forward this year, and has to be rated
among the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game now.

They don't get a lot of attention for it, but the Rockies seem to have a
knack for finding power arms in Latin America.


快速翻譯：

Chacin是在2004年被落磯簽下。
去年6-3, 3.13 with a 77/26 K/BB, 92IP, 85H, 2.70 GO/AO。90-92 MPH快速球，
另外有變速球、曲球。第二球種仍不成熟。但去年JS在他書裡給他C+並認為是沈睡者
，今年很有機會有突破性發展。

今年他正在突破性發展途中，在1A 10-1, 1.86, 98/30 K/BB, 111IP, 82H, 3HRs,
2.83 GO/AO。到A+的第一場8局完封8K 1BB 5H 0R（按：中間連續解決16人）。他的速
球進步了（根據另一篇球探的說法，現在已經可以到mid-90 MPH）、變化球變犀利了，
他仍然可以獲得很多滾地，控球依舊優異。

現在JS把對他的評價升到B+，並列入他的50大投手名單裡。唯一的缺點是他的身材只
有6-1, 180磅，有的球探在乎身材，但JS不在乎。一般而言，矮的投手比較難將球投
到好球帶下緣，但這對Chacin不是問題。

當然他還有很多難題要面對。但他今年是個大進展，他現在已經是比賽中最好的右手
投手潛力新秀之一。

他們沒有獲得太多注意，但是落磯總有辦法能在拉丁美洲找到好貨。


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◆ From: 61.229.111.226
→ Tulo02:現在落磯在拉丁美洲的策略是不去跟其他人競標大魚
推 lightring:話說 在紅襪板看到討論交易 有人說假日得成績
→ Tulo02:而是蒐羅和隱藏一些珍珠 現在看不到 過幾年就會像今年的
→ lightring:是在山上才會有的~
→ Tulo02:Chacin一樣冒出來，其實現在短期1A還有一個很猛的拉丁美洲
→ Tulo02:新秀投手
→ Tulo02:OPS+是經過球場校正 Holliday去年OPS+是150 看紅襪有幾個
→ lightring:加油呀 投手好好養 希望兩三年後可以一舉拿下WS冠軍
→ Tulo02:OPS+ 150的 不過Holliday主客場差異很大 也難怪別人說嘴
→ lightring:我比較好奇 假日的主客場差異  是不管到那隊都會這樣
→ lightring:還是真的是在山上造成的結果
→ Tulo02:我想不會 但我不相信在落磯打球的客場成績等於他在其他球
→ Tulo02:實力
→ Tulo02:是在山上造成的結果沒錯 但我覺得在山上打球會有後遺症
→ Tulo02:導致客場打不好 但沒有什麼實據
→ Tulo02:本來我是想統計一下在落磯打球主客場差異 跟他離開落磯後ꨠ
→ Tulo02:成績作比較 不過暫時沒時間 這是大工程
推 lightring:確實是大工程
→ Tulo02:我現在想到最名顯的例子是大貓在離開落磯到勇士打球的第一
→ Tulo02:年仍然有40轟 不過還得更詳細比對一些數據 蠻麻煩的
→ lightring:而且球員生涯本來就會有生涯年和低潮年 這也是變數
→ Tulo02:是沒錯 我是想取道落磯前一年和到落磯第一年 還有離開落磯
→ Tulo02:後一年和在落磯最後一年比較 當然要扣除有受傷問題的
→ Tulo02:當然只是想想 之前有文章有在討論這個
→ Tulo02:他比對了團對在山上成績、下山的第一場和下山的其他場
→ Tulo02:結論是下山的第一場和其他場成績沒有明顯落差
推 lightring:嗯嗯嗯 不過我相信假日不管到那
→ lightring:決對還是一名有威脅性的強打者
推 rahim03:結果JS有一些事沒注意到 Chacin在去年冬天長高了2英吋 增
推 rahim03:加了約30磅
推 rahim03:..........  有人叫他右手的Santana
推 rahim03:他們在比較的時候感覺有點扯 我們左手的葛雷諾不知道什麼
推 rahim03:時候要爆發