[轉錄] 研究顯示:年輕人在季後賽中的比重越來越高

[willyt (T-Yak [Farewell~])]

※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板]

作者: bri (.....................) 看板: NBA
標題: [討論] Research: Young Players Seeing More Playoff Minutes
時間: Wed Apr 30 21:32:12 2008

配合最佳新秀出爐，翻篇應景的研究：

http://0rz.tw/433XL

Research: Young Players Seeing More Playoff Minutes
ESPN TrueHoop by Henry Abbott

研究：年輕球員在季後賽有更多上場時間

I have been writing plenty about youth in these playoffs.

我寫了很多關於年輕人在季後賽的文章。

Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Carl Landry, Rajon Rondo, Julian
Wright, Al Horford ... there have been so many young players playing well.

Chris Paul、Deron Williams、Dwight Howard、Carl Landry、Rajon Rondo、Julian
Wright、Al Horford，有這麼多年輕人都打的很好。

Reigning king of the stat geeks, Justin Kubatko, who runs Basketball-Reference
.com, was nice enough to test my theory against his vast database.

數據怪胎之王Justin Kubatko，Basketball-Reference.com的運作者，很好心地用他巨
大的資料庫測設了一下我的理論。

And what he found was very interesting. I posted the whole table after the
jump.

他發現的事非常有趣。我會在最後貼上整個表格。(譯註：請見文末連結)

He first looked at what percentage of a team's total minutes were played by a
player who was 23 or younger (his database takes every players birthday on
February 1 and assigns that age to them all season). The real news here is
that this number is trending way up. In 1996, about 6% of minutes were played
by youngsters. It barely passed 10% all through the 1990s.

他首先看看一支球隊的總上場時數中，年齡23歲以下的球員佔了多少百分比 (他的資料
庫把每個球員的生日都設成2月1日，然後球員整季都以這個年齡計算) 。真正的新聞是
這個數字有向上走的趨勢。在1996年，年輕球員大約打了大約6%的時間。整個1990年代
，這個數字勉強超過10%。

In this year's playoffs so far, players 23 or younger are playing 21% of the
minutes.

到了今年的季後賽，到現在為止，23歲以下的球員打了21%的上場時間。

Now, you might say that number will come down as the younger teams get kicked
out of the playoffs. And that could happen. But even last year -- a playoffs
won by the aging San Antonio Spurs -- the number was 18%, the highest it had
been since 1980.

現在，你可以說這個數字會慢慢下降，因為比較年輕的球隊會慢慢被踢出季後賽。這的
確可能發生。但是即使在去年—由年紀比較大的聖安東尼奧馬刺隊贏得冠軍—這個數字
是18%，是1980年以來的最高點。

You could also say that this year there have been some blowouts, which might
mean more garbage time than normal -- and hence more playing time for
youngsters. That could be a factor.

你可以說今年有比較多慘敗的比賽，可能代表比平常多的多垃圾時間–所以比較多年輕
人的時間。這也可能是因素之一。

If this year's 21% number holds up, it will be the third-highest in the history
of the league. Even if it slips somewhat, it will be indicative of some serious
growth in recent years. (And if some young teams make it deep into the
playoffs, the number could, in theory, go up.)

如果今年的 21%數字持續如此，會是聯盟歷史上的第三高。即使它往下滑落，也會是這
幾年一些重要成長的指標。 (如果一些年輕的球隊持續深入季後賽，理論上這個數字會
往上升)

What's this trend about?

這個趨勢有什麼含義呢？

David Thorpe's theory is that the new hand-checking rules have made this, more
than ever, a fast player's game. "Quickness," Thorpe says, "is a difference
maker. It used to be that if you were a veteran guarding a younger, quicker
player, you could just grab the guy. Now, you can't do that anymore, and the
quick players are killing people."

David Thorpe的理論是，新的碰觸打手規定造成，超過以往，一個快速的比賽。”速度
，造就了不同”Thorpe說”過去如果你是個老球員防守一個年輕、快速的球員，你可以
就抓住他。現在你不能這樣作了，快速的球員會宰掉其他人。”

Kubatko also did a quick and dirty assessment of how much these young players
are contributing with their minutes. He assessed points plus one-half rebounds
plus one-half assists, explaining "how 'value' is measured isn't that important
(as long as it's reasonable), as we're looking at player's in the aggregate
rather than making player-to-player comparisons."

Kubatko 也針對這些年輕球員對於他們上場時間的貢獻，作了一個簡單的評估。他用得
分加上1/2的籃板加上1/2的助攻，他的解釋是”價值要如何衡量不是那麼重要 (只要合
理)，所以我們只看球員的總合表現，而不是針對球員間來比較。”

On that front, young players in most years contribute even slightly more than
their minutes would suggest, and that trend holds true this time around; in
their 21% of the minutes, young players are producing 23% of the stats (by
this crude measure).

在這個理論下，大多數時候，年輕球員的貢獻甚至稍稍比他們的時間多一點，而這個趨
勢現在也是如此，在21%的上場時間內，年輕球員貢獻了23%的數據 (依照這個簡略的評量)

UPDATE: TrueHoop reader John writes: "The most interesting aspect of the
basketball reference post was the only other time the % of younger players and
% value compared to today's numbers was in the late 1970's, early 1980's. Most
argue that the 1980's was the golden age of NBA basketball, and this was
preceded by this high percentage of younger players in the playoffs. Could this
be a sign that the next 7-8 years of NBA basketball could be setup very well
with a great crop of young talent? I think it has to be."

更新：TrueHoop讀者John寫道”這個調查最有趣的面向是，歷史上唯一有現在年輕人這
種上場時間百分比和價值百分比的時期，是1970末期，1980前期。大多數人說1980年代
是 NBA籃球的黃金年代，而這個高比率的年輕球員是它的前兆。這可能是接下來七、八
年NBA會因為這群年輕天份的成熟，而運作的非常好的徵兆嗎？我認為這一定是。”

數據及圖表見如下網址：

http://0rz.tw/f73Xd

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推 LoadUp:推你很認真  可是外電在這個板是沒有市場的
推 leaf2:球團願意給有潛力的新人上場意願大於有能力的老人？
→ bri:哈哈  因為我不知道要放在哪個版  只好來總版了XD
推 melzard:清流~!
推 francis45:言之有物 某大腕跟某爺多學點
推 YFL12:Interesting!!
推 vking223:年輕人貢獻成長是一件好事 90末梯的在今年都感到壓力了
推 CW4:Wow 很酷的數據研究捏~ 推一下
推 Knicks:
推 KANGTA23:年輕一輩的都開始茁壯起來了
推 kerogunpla:可以解釋成世代交替嗎
推 willyt:借轉 76's
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推 arkod:Young 勒 ?!!!!!!!????????!!!
推 momofishj:這篇文章的寓意是: The RUN isn't over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
→ II33:一樓那個真的是超年輕!!!
推 hanway:七六人稱霸東區，指日可待
→ freijaking:七六人越來越多個比我年輕...........................
推 Stevenchow:威力踢的捷運資料在哪裡找的啊??