[外電] 七六人的極限，到底在哪？

[willyt (ㄌㄔ2015 世界一流)]

Updated: February 6, 2012, 5:24 PM ET
What's the ceiling for the Sixers?
The 76ers are in good shape now, but what about the future?
七六人的極限在哪裡？
費城的小傢伙現在的狀況非常好，但是他們的前景如何？
(PER Diem: Feb. 6, 2012)
By John Hollinger, ESPN.com (Insider)


With Andre Iguodala leading the way, the Sixers appear in good
shape in the Atlantic Division.

伊姬率領著他的一干兄弟，讓七六人現在看起來是大西洋組的新興強權。

So … can we take the Sixers seriously yet?

那...我們應該開始對七六人認真了嗎？

Philly feasted on a soft early schedule, but the Sixers'
current stretch of games against elite teams (one that
continues Monday against the Lakers) provided further proof of
their legitimacy. The Sixers pounded the Bulls and embarrassed
the Magic despite missing both their starting and backup
centers. One would think this might be problematic against the
league's best offensive rebounding team and its most dominant
center, but it was no problem. They followed that over the
weekend with a setback against the Heat before pounding the
Hawks into submission in Atlanta on Saturday.

七六人的戰績當然跟他們前陣子軟柿子大進補有關，
但是他們現在真的打敗了一些頂尖的隊伍(尤其剛剛才把湖人跟Kobe一起ups送回家)，
證明了他們是真貨，而且可以持續長時間維持這樣的表現。
而且，在失去了他們一雙主戰中鋒(Hawes and Vucevic)之後，
七六人依然可以完成對公牛的重擊，並且讓魔術的進攻看起來像是一場笑話。
而且面對魔術的時候，這可是一個扎實的挑戰，
他們是全聯盟最會抓進攻籃板的球隊，
而他們的主將基本上可以等同於聯盟最具有宰制力量的中鋒，
但是失去了中流砥柱的七六人依然無視於這些眼前的挑戰而取得勝利。
這個禮拜他們還在週日戰勝了老鷹，雖然大比分輸給熱火非常令人失望，
但是這周的戰果豐碩。

With a third of the season in the books, Philly is third in
the Power Rankings and leads the NBA in margin of victory. The
schedule has undoubtedly helped -- it is both the second
easiest by opponent strength and one of the most home-heavy
(15 in Philly, just nine away) -- but it's not like the Sixers
have been skating by.

球季走了三分之一，費城目前在Hollinger's Daily Power Rankings排第三，
並且在淨勝分差領先全聯盟(並且也是唯一維持兩位數字的，今天剛好10.0)
雖然之前的軟柿子們(包拓聯盟第二軟的對手強度，以及最多場次的主場)
確實有讓這些數字變得比較好看，
但是這不影響這些數字背後所代表的意義：七六人真的有這個實力。

If anything, they've been unfortunate, actually. Only six of
their games were decided by seven points or fewer, and Philly
lost five of them. Their only win in that group was the
Orlando game, when they were humiliating the Magic with their
suffocating D before a late burst of cosmetic scoring made it
seem a game. Orlando had 49 points in the first 44 minutes and
trailed by 18 with less than three minutes to go.

如果硬要挑骨頭，那他們有六場比賽是在七分差距以內，
但是七六人在這當中輸了五場，
而唯一贏的比賽只有對上魔術那場，而且還是因為最後的亂流，
才讓魔術追到剩下五分，不然他們讓魔術在一開始的44分鐘內，
僅僅只得到了49分而已。
(按：所以對湖人的精彩勝利意義非凡)


For the season, two stats stand out. First is their defense.
The Sixers lead the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide
margin, despite playing a big chunk of the season without both
centers. The second is their low-turnover offense: Philly has
by far the lowest turnover rating in the NBA at just 10.7
percent of possessions.

這個球季的各項數字當中，七六人在兩個領域當中表現得極為顯眼。
第一個當然是他們的防守效率，
他們在defensive rating取得巨大的領先，
並且可怕的是，這還是在缺乏兩個大中鋒好幾場的情況下完成的。
第二個是他相當誇張的低失誤，
一樣是具大的領先，七六人目前在失誤率上僅僅只有10.7%(現在已經10.4%了)。

Those two items are intertwined if you look more closely. The
Sixers are defined by one characteristic: They never screw up.
Philly doesn't turn the ball over on offense, and the Sixers
have shot surprisingly well from the perimeter (fifth in the
league at 38.5 percent on 3s, up from 15th a year ago with the
same players). That's provided them with a decent offense
overall, despite the amazing fact they're last in two of Dean
Oliver's "four factors." Unbelievably, the Sixers are 30th in
both offensive rebound rate and in free throw attempts per
field goal attempt.

這兩個獨立事件乍看之下是絲毫沒有聯繫的，
但是實際是有著千絲萬縷的關係。
七六人的球賽有著非常重要的特質：他們從不陷入混亂。
他們在進攻端不輕易犯錯，把球權輕易的交給對手，
而且七六人今年在三分線上有著非常大的進步。
(38.5%的命中率，聯盟第五，去年是第十五名，且球員名單幾乎沒變)
這讓他們在進攻上面的效率有顯著的提昇，
並且使他們能克服4-factor當中靠北低的進攻籃板率以及罰球率(FTA/FGA)
所造成的傷害。


Defensively, it's a similar story. The Sixers don't foul
(fourth in opponent free throw rate), don't give up second
shots (ninth in defensive rebound rate) and don't surrender 3s
(fourth in 3-point defense). Commentators still talk about
their ball-hawking defense, but Philly is right at the league
average in forcing turnovers; it's been so wildly successful
largely by forcing opponents to shoot long 2s.

在防守端也是相似的狀況。
七六人不輕易讓人上罰球線(在對手罰球率是聯盟第四低)，
不輕易給對手有第二次進攻的機會(在防守籃板率排行第九)，
並且不讓人有輕易遠射的機會(對手三分命中率第四低)。
評論家們總是喜歡談論七六人製造的抄截，
但是實際上，七六人在製造對手失誤的項目中不過就是聯盟平均。
這樣的防守效率的關鍵在：讓對手射比較沒用又沒效率的長距離兩分
(也就是不放棄三分線、並且嘗試讓持球者遠離籃框)

And for this, we should applaud Doug Collins and his team,
because they're clearly playing at or near their ceiling.
Philly doesn't bowl you over with great individual talents,
but it has a lot of good players who play as a team and never
beat themselves. All indications are that they will be a
top-four seed in the East and win at least a round in the
playoffs; while I doubt the Heat fear them after beating them
twice by 20, they might be able to give the Bulls quite a
tussle.

有鑑於此，我們必須為 Doug Collins 跟他底下生猛有力的團隊鼓掌。
因為他們的確已經達到他們目前所能達到最好的成果。
他們沒有非常出色的單兵作戰能力，
但是他們有一卡車的優秀球員，並且緊密的結合在一起，
並且不被自己所擊敗(包括控制失誤與球員的自律能力)。
眾多的象徵顯示著他們會是今年東區前四種子，
並且絕對能夠贏得至少一個系列賽的勝利，
也許對上熱火，依據季後賽與過去兩場的結果，
可以初步認定有著基本的障礙需要克服外，
相信他們對上公牛絕對會有場好戲可以看。

And yet there's an irony behind all this, which is that this
season makes Philadelphia's future much harder to divine.

但是諷刺的是，這樣的成功似乎帶給七六人的未來更多的不確定性。

The sneaking suspicion around the league is that the Sixers
are the primary beneficiary of the league's lockout, and the
low-error path to success only reinforces that belief.
Bringing back the same players and the same system into a
league with virtually no training camp, Philly was halfway
down the track while everybody else was still back in the
starting blocks. If that's the case, the league is going to
catch up to the Sixers as the season goes on, and their
advantage may be considerably smaller by May.

眾多在暗處的聲音認為七六人目前只是受惠於封館所產生的縮水球季，
他們認為以不犯錯為基礎而成就的成果只是因為大家都還沒準備好。
他們將大部分的主力球員都帶回來，並且沒有更換教練與戰術系統，
這在極短的訓練營當中是極為吃香的。
因此的確會出現另外一個聲音：
「到了五月是不是七六人就後繼無力了？」
(因為到了五月，他們這樣的優勢就會變小)

On the other hand, Philly appears to have built quite a solid
foundation of good young talent. Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young,
Spencer Hawes, Jodie Meeks, Lou Williams and Evan Turner all
are 25 or younger; Andre Iguodala, who turned 28 last week,
isn't exactly a fossil, either. They may be overachieving, in
other words, but they're also still improving.

但是另外一個方面來說，
他們的球隊核心是建立在一大堆的潛力新秀身上，
Jrue Holiday, Lou Williams, Evan Turner 等人不是才25就是比25更年輕。
球隊的主將，Andre Iguodala 上個禮拜也不過才剛滿28，
他也不是個化石級的主將。
他們雖然做的比他們所被預期的好，但是更重要的是，
這些球員顯然持續不斷的成長當中。

That seven-man core appears to have been expanded by two over
the summer with rookies Nikola Vucevic and Lavoy "Mr. 500"
Allen, who look like two of the better selections in this
year's draft. Vucevic has opened eyes with his variety of
offensive skills, flashing both a low-post and long-range
shooting game while shooting 54.9 percent; the 7-footer also
has a strong rebound rate and ranks third among rookies in PER.

在原先年輕的七人核心(Hawes AI9 Jodie Jrue Lou Young Evan)之中還能夠升級，
當然是因為今年成功的兩個選秀：Nikola Vucevic與Lavoy "Mr. 500" Allen，
以馬後炮的眼光來看，七六人顯然是這次選秀的大贏家。
Vucevic以他低位進攻與投射能力等進攻技巧令人眼睛為之一亮，
並且有著 54.9% 的命中率。
這位七尺長人還有著強大的籃板率以及新人當中第三高的PER值。

Allen, meanwhile, has impressed with his strength and midrange
game after landing 500th out of 500 in our offseason poll
ranking the league's players. Clearly, we had him a few spots
too low. Atlanta tried posting Josh Smith on Allen early in
the game Saturday and got absolutely nowhere; he's proved
extremely difficult to move on the block and capable of taking
minutes at the center position. Offensively, meanwhile, he's
shooting 58.0 percent after an unremarkable four-year career
at Temple.

Lavoy Allen，他強悍的對抗能力以及中距離，
令我們這些把他列為聯盟最遭(第五百名)球員的專家們跌破眼鏡。
顯然我們在某些部份過度低估他。
星期六的時候，老鷹顯然刻意讓Josh Smith有機會嘗試在低位單打他，
但是什麼事情都沒有發生(XD)。
他在禁區當中面對艱難的挑戰，並且還要吃下五號位置的時間，
但是他勝任愉快。
在進攻上，他目前有著58%的高命中率，對於一個在天普四年當中，
除了苦工以外不引人注目的球員來說非常顯眼。


(Unfortunately for the Sixers, however, somebody was asleep at
the wheel when they did Allen's contract. The Sixers gave a
straight one-year deal with no team option, allowing him to
become a restricted free agent next summer. This is virtually
unprecedented for a late-second-round draft pick; nearly all
have contracts with multiple team options for three or even
four years, allowing the team to keep the player at an
extremely low price if he turns out to be any good. Houston's
Chandler Parsons, for example, was taken 12 spots ahead of
Allen and has team options for the next three seasons. Thus,
while Allen looks like a keeper, he may not be as cheap a
keeper as he could have been.)

註: 對七六人而言不幸的是，在簽約的時候有人漏掉了一些什麼，
    七六人並沒有在他的合約上加上Team Option，
    讓他在明年夏天直接成為RFA (也就是沒有使用一代Arenas條款)
    這在第二輪末端的球員當中顯然是史無前例的。
    在這四年當中，Arenas條款保護了母隊在二輪球員打出來的時候，
    可以選擇優先低價留下他第二年(或與他續約)
    舉例來說，火箭的 Chandler Parsons，
    他在Allen前面，而他未來有著三年的球隊選項。
    因此如果Allen看起來是真貨，那他就沒辦法相是別的球員一樣這麼便宜

willyt評: RFA還不簡單，就跟阿，Joshua Harris哪有在怕得。


That's nine good players 25 or under, plus Iguodala. And
that's where we get to the real story of this season's
success: the tantalizing possibility that it may allow even
more success a year from now.

這裡有九個優秀的輪替球員小於二十五歲，
加上28歲Iguodala。
那這樣我們就可以理解真正讓七六人本季成功的關鍵：
這些令人流口水的天份與未來發展可能，
將可能讓七六人在未來的幾年內持續成功。

Philadelphia has not generally been considered a hot market
for free agents. If the Sixers win 45 games and a playoff
round and can make Chicago or Miami break a sweat in Round 2,
that picture may change dramatically. There isn't the lure of
beaches and nightlife, but the lure of winning is pretty
powerful, too. Philly will have that to lure veterans with its
midlevel exception, at worst.

七六人目前並不具備吸引自由球員的條件。
但是如果七六人本季可以贏得超過 45 場的勝利，
並且讓公牛或熱火在第二輪付出他們應得的代價，
那這情形就會有顯著的改善。
費城的確沒有吸引人的海灘或者夜景，
但是戰績與勝利同樣的吸引人。
七六人至少可以在未來的幾年，吸引到老將以MLE加盟。

Or perhaps they could aim higher. The Sixers may lose Lou
Williams to free agency (he can opt out and almost certainly
will), and Hawes, Meeks and Allen will be free agents, too. So
there's plenty of work to be done. But the Sixers also are
looking at $15 million in cap pace if Williams walks and they
use their amnesty clause on Elton Brand, even after locking up
Hawes, Meeks and Allen.

甚至事情可能發展的更有趣。
七六人有可能在自由球員的爭霸戰失去Louis Williams
(他最後一年有option，而他看起來沒有skip的可能性)
或 Hawes, Meeks 甚至 Allen。
所以對七六人的未來而言，制服組顯然還有很多課題需要克服。
但如果Lou跳脫，而七六人對Brand啟用特赦，
那即便Hawes、Meeks、Allen都有留下來，七六人仍然可以獲得15M的薪資空間。

No, Dwight Howard isn't coming. But this team doesn't need
Dwight Howard. Eric Gordon, on the other hand -- they could
really use somebody exactly like him. The Sixers lack both a
reliable long-range shooter and go-to offensive option, and
he'd fill both those slots rather nicely.

不，別想太多了，Dwight Howard不可能來的，
但是七六人並不需要這號人物。
七六人需要的是像是 Eric Gordon 這樣的球員，
有著中長距離的投射威脅，並且是個go-to guy的絕佳選擇，
只要能夠兩個願望一次滿足，何樂而不為？

All this is getting ahead of ourselves, of course. The point
is the Sixers can open a number of doors that previously
seemed shut by continuing their recent run of success, whether
via free agency or trade, because they've built a core of
players good enough that other players want to join it.

這些當然只是我們的幻想。
但是重點是七六人在未來有著足夠多的選擇來持續他們目前的成功，
即便是透過自由球員市場或交易，
但重點是這主菜要吸引人，也就是費城目前年輕有活力的核心。

The key to all of that, however, is sustaining said success in
the wake of a more difficult schedule, and against
better-prepared opponents. It remains unclear how well the
screw-up-less-than-they-do approach will play as more teams
shake out the cobwebs and lockoutball reverts to something
more closely approaching real NBA basketball.

但是，我們無法預知，以低失誤低錯誤為主的球風，
面對逐漸上升的聯盟強度，是否還能夠持續維持，
因此目前對於他們真正的實力還是有值得質疑的部份，
必須由更多的球隊，以及更強的競技水準來測試才能得知結果。

What is clear is that Philly is in much better shape than it
appeared at the start of the season. They've played like legit
contenders through the first third of the season; while we can
retain a healthy suspicion of whether they're really this good
given the circumstances, it's abundantly clear that this
team's future is dramatically brighter than its past.

但是確定的是，
目前的七六人甚至比季前大家所預期的還要來得更好。
他們在球季進行三分之一的當下，打得像是一個強力的冠軍競爭者。
雖然在種種考量下，還是應該保留一點合理的懷疑空間，
但是目前的成果充分的顯示，比起黯淡的前幾個球季而言，
這個球季代表他們的未來將會無比閃耀。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.129.112.48
推 kenny781558:好文 大推!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
推 WBYY:這個球季代表他們的未來將會無比閃耀!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
推 DarkChilles:都要哭了，這班底可以讓費城玩好幾年
推 hanway:SKY's the limit
→ willyt:               , I believe I can fly~~~ <- 像這樣？
推 hanway:沒錯～
推 momofishj:推!
※ 編輯: willyt          來自: 220.129.112.48       (02/08 14:21)