[外電] 昨日輝煌時，恐成煙灰滅？

[jimcal (Let go Sixers!)]

外電來源 http://bit.ly/H1v8GJ Sport Ilustrated

When the Sixers bolted out of the gate sporting both a top-five offense and a
top-five defense, my reaction was, essentially, “let’s see if this team can
score efficiently over the long haul.”

當七六人開季破閘而出，攻守兩端數據盤據聯盟前五時，我的反應是：
"讓我們看看長期下來，這支球隊是否能夠有效率地得分？"

Almost 40 games later, we have our answer: They can’t. The Sixers still have
the league’s best defense by a pretty big margin, but they have fallen all
the way to 17th in points per possession, and it’s clear they just don’t
have enough scoring – in crunch time and otherwise — to compete with the
best teams in the Eastern Conference. And that’s too bad, because the Sixers
’ offense is a really interesting study in going to stylistic extremes as a
way of maximizing talent and minimizing the lack of a consistent individual
scoring threat capable of creating efficient offense.

四十場球賽下來，我們得到的答案是：不能。七六人仍舊是聯盟頂級的防守勁旅，但是
進攻端已經跌落到聯盟平均以下的第十七名。很明顯他們的得分不足--尤其是在關鍵
時刻--以抵抗東區其他頂級球隊。這樣的結果令人失望，因為七六人的進攻是有相當
研究價值的極端例子。他們將團隊的天賦極大化，來遮掩他們最大的弱點--缺乏穩定
、有效率的球星帶來的進攻威脅。

The good extreme: Philadelphia rarely turns the ball over. The Sixers have
coughed the ball up on 10.7 percent of their possessions so far this season,
putting them on pace for the lowest turnover rate in the history of the
league. They play a low-risk brand of ball built upon the idea that if all
five guys move, pass and cut enough times over 15 seconds or so, a good look
will emerge somewhere on the court. It’s a style that removes all the
higher-risk parts of an NBA offense that most often lead to turnovers —
 pick-and-rolls in which the point guard gets into the teeth of a defense and
tries a tricky interior pass, isolation drives into traffic and post-up plays
that draw double-teams.

好的極端是，七六人極少失誤。本季只有 10.7% 的進攻以失誤作結，七六人將成為
聯盟史上失誤最低的球隊。低風險的進攻哲學是建立在場上五人的跑動配合球的移動、
切、傳，十五秒左右好的進攻機會將會在場上浮現。選擇不使用 NBA 進攻套數裡風險
較高的幾種戰術--不讓擋切中的控球後衛陷入防守陣式，勉強將球往進禁區送；或是
放單邊強攻，亦或低位單打以吸引包夾。

It also produces a bad extreme: The Sixers do not get to the foul line enough
to survive. They make one free throw per every 6.5 field-goal attempts, for a
free-throw/field-goal attempt ratio of .154, per Basketball-Reference. If
that number holds, the Sixers will finish with the lowest free-throw rate any
team has posted since 1946-47, when the NBA technically didn’t exist. (It
was known as the Basketball Association of America and merged with a second
league in 1949 to create the NBA.) Only two teams have finished with a ratio
below .180 since the mid-1970s, and both of those teams came in well above
where the Sixers stand now. The Sixers have attempted fewer than 10 foul
shots in four of their last 21 games — the same number of games in which they
’ve managed to earn 20 or more free throws during that stretch. The average
team attempts about 22.8 free throws per game.

當然也有不好的極端： 上不了罰球線讓七六人難以生存。每六次半的投籃機會才導致
一次罰球機會，罰球機會和投籃機會的比率是難以想像的一成五四。繼續保持下去，
七六人又將創造聯盟另一項紀綠，罰球機會最少的球隊。上次有球隊低於一成八是
七零年代的往事，而且那些球隊在相對的時間點都比七六人目前的數據高上不少。過去
二十一場比賽中七六人有四場全隊罰球不到四次，只有四場罰球超過二十次。聯盟平均
是 22. 8 次。

The net result is a failing offense. Over their last 20 games, the Sixers
have averaged 98.9 points per 100 possessions, the rough equivalent of what
Boston’s 25th-ranked offense has produced this season, per NBA.com’s stats
database.

一來一往的結果是失靈的進攻。過去二十場比賽，每一百次的持球機會七六人的得分是
98.9分，大約是塞爾蒂克本季的進攻效率。

But the Sixers’ free-throw phobia is part of a larger trend in this weird
lockout-shortened season: No one is getting to the line much. The league’s
collective free-throw/field-goal attempt ratio is just .210, the lowest
league-wide ratio since 1973-74, and a mark that would be third-lowest in the
entire history of the BAA/NBA if it holds up. The Bulls, Wizards, Warriors,
Spurs and Hawks are all on pace to join Philadelphia among the 52 “worst”
 teams in NBA history at earning free throws, according Basketball-Reference.

但是在這個封館縮水球季裡，七六人乾涸的罰球是聯盟的縮影。總體的聯盟罰球對投籃
比率是兩成一，1973-74球季以來的最低，也將是 BBA 以及 NBA 歷史上第三低的。公牛
、巫師、勇士、馬刺和老鷹都將加入七六人成為歷史上五十二支罰球"最爛"的球隊。


Again, if these numbers stay around where they are now, this season will
produce six of the 52 teams that have made free throws least often in the
60-plus year of the league (and its predecessor leagues). The trend works on
the flip side, too; a half-dozen teams are on pace to end up as among the
least foul-prone defensive clubs in league history. That list also includes
the Bulls, a slightly terrifying development; the idea that a team can defend
as fiercely as Chicago without fouling should scare everyone.

五十二支球隊裡佔六支似乎是相當高的比率，然而極端化的趨勢也將顯現在防守端。
六支球隊將成為聯盟史上最少犯規的球隊。赫然出現在這名單上的公牛應該讓聯盟
其他球隊感到膽寒，因為他們凶狠的防守不需要犯規作為武器。

A small drop in free throw percentage–from 76.3 percent last season to 75.1
percent this season–might explain a tiny bit of the drop in free throw rate,
but the league’s free throw percentage has been in the 75s as recently as
the 2007-08 and 2009-10 seasons. The average team is attempting about 1.5
fewer free throws per game this season, though the real difference is a hair
larger, since the pace of play has declined slightly from last season.

罰球命中率在本季稍稍下降，從上季的 76.3% 掉到本季的 75.1%，或許解釋了一部分的
異象。然而從 07-08 和 09-10 球季罰球命中率就在 75% 左右。球隊平均本季少了 1.5
次的罰球出手，然而真正的情況應該是罰球比率稍稍上昇，因為本季普遍放慢的進攻步調
。

The league’s free-throw rate has been low all season. I asked Stu Jackson,
the NBA’s vice president, about the issue two months ago, when the free
throw/field-goal attempt ratio was up at .215. He correctly noted that
free-throw rate had been dropping for several seasons before this one, but he
admitted the league was concerned about the sharper-than-usual drop-off that
happened at the start of this season. He told me the league’s concern would
grow if the free throw rate continued to drop as the season went on. That has
happened. Jackson wasn’t immediately available for comment this morning.

聯盟罰球出手的比率整季都相當低。兩個月前請教了 NBA 副總裁 Stu Jackson，關於
當時 .215 的罰球出手比率。他提到數個球季以來這個比率一直在下降，但是聯盟當局
的確對於本季開季以來異常的下跌感到憂心。當時他表示聯盟將會持續觀察。然而今早
未能取得他本人現在的評語。


In that January interview, Jackson also suggested teams were going to zone
defenses more often than usual, possibly as a means of providing a bit of
in-game relief for tired players, and that zones naturally produced fewer
fouls.

一月時 Jackson 也同時指出球隊大量使用區域防守來舒緩球員體力的消耗，也間接
使得犯規的次數下降。

One encouraging aside in all this: The league’s offense has rebounded after
a horrid start. A quarter of the way through the season, the average team was
scoring about five fewer points per 100 possessions compared with last
season. The gap is down to about three points per 100 possessions now,
meaning the league in the interim has produced at a rate at least close to
what it did last season. League-wide three-point percentage has jumped by
almost a full percentage point over the last 30 or so games.

在這些低迷的指標中，令人感到正面的是聯盟的進攻在開季的慘澹後已經回到過去的
水平。在球季四分之一的時間點，一支聯盟平均的球隊，在每一百個持球進攻的機會
，大約比前一季少得五分。這個差距目前縮小到三分左右，也就是說過去這段時間至
少已經有上一季的水準。聯盟的三分球命中率在過去三十場左右的比賽也上升了一個
百分點。


In any case, some of the other teams who have failed to generate free throws
this season can probably survive long-term. The Bulls have the best
free-throw rate among all those teams mentioned above, and they’ll generate
more when Derrick Rose is healthy. San Antonio is tied with Chicago in the
points-per-possession rankings, behind only the league-leading Thunder,
meaning both teams are thriving despite the free-throw drought. And the
Spurs, too, should get there a more as Manu Ginobili settles in and starts
driving to the rim like a mad man.

對於其他隊來說，缺乏過去水平的罰球或許還可以撐得下去。公牛是是前述球隊裡最
好的，而在 Rose 健康的時候他們將有更多罰球出手機會。馬刺在得分/持球機會排名
中和公牛打平，只落後給聯盟最佳的雷霆，表示這兩支球隊都在缺乏罰球的情況下仍舊
在進攻端表現出色。同樣地，在 Manu 上場時馬刺也能夠得到更多的罰球機會。

But the Sixers? They don’t have a Rose, Ginobili, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan or
even a Carlos Boozer. Their defense alone will make them a tough out in May
and June, and in a seven-game series, the math says they’ll have at least
one or two games in which their offense produces at an above-average level.
But they aren’t guaranteed to win those games, and the general scoring
issues suggest they can’t compete with Miami or Chicago over seven games.
They’re clearly capable of getting out of the first round, but even that
will be a fight.

但是七六人呢？他們沒有 Rose 也沒有 Ginobili，Tony Parker，Tim Duncan 或是
Boooooozer。防守使他們成為短系列賽的威脅，數據告訴我們他們將至少有一到兩場
能夠展顯水準以上的進攻。但是這並不保證他們能夠贏得那些比賽，反倒是進攻的問題
成為七六人能否與熱火或公牛競爭七場系列賽的一大問號。他們顯然有突破季後賽
第一輪的能力，但即便是第一輪都可能打得辛苦。

And after such a promising start for Philadelphia, that prognosis counts as a
disappointment.

令人驚豔的開季讓球迷對七六人充滿期待，然而這些隱憂指向令人失望的未來。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 50.46.102.35
※ 編輯: jimcal          來自: 50.46.102.35         (03/29 12:47)
推 hanway:謝翻譯！Net result翻一來一往很不錯。
→ hanway:這篇文章本身品質也很好，觀點很全面。咱們的進攻真的不夠
→ hanway:強勢，加上單打夠強的球員少(現在只有小威)，拉鋸戰很容易
→ hanway:頂不住，關鍵時刻落敗收場。
推 willyt:Zach本來就是SI裡面比較認真的專欄作家XD
→ LouWilliams:                              叫我嗎?
推 willyt:                     那個女孩，叫做
推 CoachKuester:滿好奇七六人能否成為過去的活塞的...如果真的要打團
→ CoachKuester:隊球...但天分的位置似乎不太一樣
推 eno03:推翻譯 希望能走的更遠!