推 thomaslai:推 09/21 21:06
推 viva4841:Bynum的最後一句好像是說下季他才25歲? 09/21 21:33
你是對的XD 我看太快, fixed
※ 編輯: willyt 來自: 111.243.224.108 (09/21 21:38)
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Philadelphia 76ers: 2012-13 roster
2012-13霍家拳門陣容分析與預測：費城七六人隊
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
Originally Published: September 20, 2012
http://tinyurl.com/9t6mjnp
按: 此文過長，我分兩次來。
★ PROJECTED STARTERS / 預測先發陣容
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
JRUE HOLIDAY, PG
Scouting report
+ Big, quick point guard with good quickness and hands.
Improved defender.
具有身材與速度優勢於一身，且還有著在一號位置不常見的長臂。有著
極高的防守天份，但是此領域潛力尚未兌現。
+ Struggling to convert talent into production offensively.
Doesn't draw fouls.
在將天份轉換成進攻輸出的過程上有些顛簸，且上罰球線的次數不夠多。
+ Not a pure point guard. Needs to shoot more 3s. Good
midrange shooter.
他不只可以控，還能進攻。不過在成為頂尖控球後衛的路上，他目前已
經是個很不錯的中距離機器，但是三分丟得還不夠多。
Analysis
Is the system holding him back, or is Holiday doing this on
his own? His third season was a major disappointment, as he
showed no progress from his first two, and the question is
whether that's because his role was so limited in this system,
or because he's hitting the limits of his potential.
有個嚴肅的話題是：究竟去年的Jrue是被系統給限制，還是他自己的進
步不夠大呢？他三年級球季的成長幅度讓很多人感到失望，但是問題基
本上就在於這個問題的結果：於究竟是系統限制了他，還是他的成長已
經到了瓶頸？
Holiday is only 21 and entered last season as a major breakout
candidate, but most of his numbers went south. He was 50th
among point guards in pure point rating, 44th in true shooting
percentage, and only in the middle of the pack in usage rate,
and did nothing dramatically better than league-average
offensively.
話雖如此，Jrue去年也不過21，而即將邁入他關鍵的新秀保證約第四年，
仍然是最佳進步獎的強力挑戰者；但是問題在於他有些象徵(尤其是數
字上)出現了負面的信號，他在聯盟所有的控球後衛當中，純控指數(按:
馬的又是這老頭自己創造的奇怪數字)排聯盟第50，而真實命中率(TS%)
則是所有控球中的第44，他的進攻參與比例也只是在排行榜的中游迴盪，
總而言之，他的進攻效率與產出沒有超過聯盟平均太多。
Holiday shot the ball adequately from 3 (38.0 percent) but
once again took an exceptionally small portion of his shots
from behind the arc. He shot a very solid 40.9 percent from
outside 10 feet, and if he can convert some of those 2s to 3s
he'll have a lot more value.
Jrue在三分線外有著很不錯的準星，但還是要再度強調：他丟得太少了。
他在十呎外的命中率有著跟三分線外差不多的準星(40.9%)，而只要他
有辦法將這些中距離其中一部分拉到三分線外來丟，將能夠大大的提高
他身為一個控球後衛的價值。
Meanwhile, he also has to draw fouls and get to the basket --
two areas he really struggled last season. Holiday was 56th
out of 70 point guards in free throw rate, which is
unacceptable for a player with his size and quickness.
Meanwhile, he only shot 53.6 percent at the rim.
同時，他對於主動追求身體對抗上罰球線的意識與心態不夠積極。他去
年在全聯盟總計70個控球後衛中，罰球率(FTA/FGA)只有排在第56，以
他頂尖的身材優勢與速度來看，這個結果實在難以令人接受。另外他切
入後在油漆區取分的命中率只有53.6%，實在不夠高。這兩個領域是他
去年績效差強人意兩大主因。
So if he's not a great finisher, and he's not a great passer,
and he's not a great shooter, then … well, what is he?
如果他不是一個好的終結者，也不是個好的傳球者，還不是個頂尖的射
手，那身為一個控球，他的價值就非常的有限了。
One thing he is, at least, is a solid defender. Holiday had an
easier time navigating pick-and-roll defense last season, and
otherwise was very good. He's big for the position, quick,
likes to pressure the ball, and has good hands. Synergy rated
him as one of the league's best point guards, and other data
supported the idea that he was a net positive.
不過至少他是個還不錯的防守者。除了對抗檔拆通過掩體的速度與火侯
還必須加油之外，他各方面的防守都很不錯。在控球後衛的位置上他簡
直就是個有驚人速度與靈活性的巨人，並且對持球者的防守做得非常到
位，並且擁有一雙犯賤的手，能夠造成對方極大的困擾。球探級的付費
數據網站Synergy的分析中將他列為對位效率聯盟最佳的控球後衛之一，
主要原因就是他在防守端的產出讓他在攻守效率差上表現得很不錯。
* PPR, Pure Point Percentage:
純控球率，John Hollinger把他當作是一種Ball-Handling的指標，公式
如下：
PPR: Pure Point Rating = 100 * (Lg Poss per 48 min / Tm Poss
per 48 min) * (((AST * 2/3) - TOV) / MP).
個人意見是這東西能相信，總統府大門就朝西邊了。
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
JASON RICHARDSON, SG
Scouting report
+ High-jumping wing with great elevation on jumper. Weak
off-dribble game.
一個以跳投為主的側翼，但同時也有很不錯的體能，尤其是彈跳能力。
但是相較於他被餵球時的效率，他非常不擅長倚靠運球為自己創造進攻
機會。
+ Two-footed leaper who needs to stop and gather near basket.
Good rebounder.
雙腳的彈跳高度讓他可以在客串補防以及籃板上有所發揮，當然也包括
偶一為之的show time。
+ Subpar defensive player. Lacks lateral quickness. Would
benefit from move to 3.
在防守上低於聯盟平均、橫向移動不佳。但是移往三號可能讓他的缺陷
被掩蓋。
Analysis
Richardson's steady descent continued unabated, shooting just
36.8 percent on 3s and, even worse, losing his finishing
skills. Richardson made only 44.2 percent inside the arc and
had one of the lowest free throw rates in the league; included
in that was an abysmal 28.6 percent mark on long 2s. Other
than 3s, the two hallmarks of his game had been post-ups and
easy transition baskets at the rim, but he declined
dramatically on both last season.
J-Rich的進攻狀態有逐漸下降的趨勢，就目前為止還無法斷定這樣的進
程是否會持續，像是他去年在三分線上剩下36.8%的命中率，更糟糕的
是他在三分線內的命中率不過就44.2%。附帶一提，他的罰球率是可以
被列入最糟糕的集團之中的，而且他的長距離兩分球命中率已經下修到
28.6%。曾經是他專利商標中保證的兩大武器：低位單打與快攻箭頭，
目前也都有生鏽的趨勢。
Nothing else improved to offset it. Richardson had a
career-low rebound rate and shot a career-low from the free
throw line, although defensively he did a solid job by his
recent standards. While he's a good leaper, Richardson does
not move well laterally and generally struggles at this end.
However, he played more at the 3 than in other seasons and
this appeared to help him. He's pretty big for a 2 and can
jump, so defending bigger players offsets some of his
quickness deficit.
而且他在其他領域當中沒有明顯的進步以抵銷這些領域當中的衰弱與下
滑。他去年的籃板率以及罰球命中率也都是生涯最低，不過至少他的防
守雖然沒有很突出，但是沒有偏離他的生涯水準；不過跟他的彈跳能力
比起來，他的橫向移動與防守效果實在比較糟糕。但至少，球隊能夠讓
他打上三號以減少他的衰退與不足造成的傷害。他對一般的二號球員而
言算是比較巨大的，所以換言之他能夠守比較大隻的球員，而且同時具
有強悍的速度與成熟的運球的小前鋒也是比較稀有的。
Also, Richardson remains an extreme low-mistake offensive
player, sporting the fifth-lowest turnover ratio among
shooting guards. Most of his shots are catch-and-shoot or
catch-and-dunk; in fact he hardly ever dribbles. Given that
formula, he can still be an impactful player when the shots
are falling.
而除此之外，J-Rich在進攻端也鮮少犯錯，在SG的群落當中，他的失誤
率(to%)也是比較低的，雖然這拜他的進攻模式著重Catch 'n Shoot之
賜，作為一個大量倚靠cutting的球員，他的無球運作非常好(雖然他的
運球弱點也是讓他被迫成為一個依賴無球跑動球員的主要原因)，他仍
然可以在他表現良好且手感發燙的時候幫助球隊。
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
EVAN TURNER, SF
Scouting report
+ Big wing who handles ball well. Average athlete but awesome
rebounder for size.
以他在側翼當中屬於哥利亞的體型優勢中，還能兼顧優秀的持球能力實
屬難得。而且雖然他的體能並沒有非常出眾，但是他的籃板能力比之他
的身材條件來說非常出色。
+ Willing defender with good size, but average feet and hands.
Doesn't make 3s.
他的身材條件讓他成為一個很不錯的防守者，不過缺點就是手短了點。
他的三分至今仍然不可靠。
+ Creates midrange shots but rarely gets to rim. Good midrange
shooter.
大量依賴中距離，但是卻很少挑戰籃框。不過慶幸的是他的中距離算是
值得信賴。
Analysis
Turner took over a starting job last season and played heavy
minutes for a team that was a game from the conference finals.
As a result, a lot of people are under the mistaken impression
that he's good. Offensively, however, he remains a huge
negative capable of creating lots of low-percentage shots but
few easy ones.
小壞蛋在去年終於拿到他的先發位置，且在拿到先發後他的上場時間有
相當明顯的增加，而且確實幫助球隊在季後賽走了十三場比賽，就差這
麼一步就能進入東冠。不過這樣的數字讓很多人認為他非常好，但是實
際上他的進攻仍然有待努力，尤其在進攻的選擇與命中率的提高上必須
好好的下功夫。
Look at Turner's shot chart and he doesn't seem bad -- he shot
39.4 percent from beyond 10 feet and 66.7 percent at the rim.
That's good, right? Indeed, his two-point shooting percentage
was above the league average for shooting guards.
不過至少在分佈圖上，一切都還好：攤開來看，他在10呎以外的命中率
有39.4%，而他在籃框附近則有高達66.7%的命中率。看起來不錯對吧？
至少他的外圍投射是有達到SG的聯盟平均的。
But he was dead last in secondary percentage. Turner has one
of the lowest free throw rates at his position and never makes
3s, an impossibly inefficient combination that put him fifth
from the bottom in true shooting percentage. He's a good
passer -- one who tends to make high-value assists -- but not
a great one, and his forays inside the 3-point line have a
high turnover cost.
不過他的二次進攻(倚靠進攻籃板創造的出手機會)相當的糟糕。Turner
是聯盟的得分後衛中罰球率最低的那群，而且更糟糕的是直到目前為止
他還不能丟三分，因此這些低效率的組合讓他成為得分後衛中命中率倒
數第五的那個人。他是個很不錯很不錯的傳球者，有能力傳出高品質的
助攻，但是他不是最好的，而且因為他的進攻大量集中在三分線內，以
至於讓他在失誤上付出代價。
So it all looks pretty good while it's happening, but he's
actually quietly killing the offense.
所以雖然看起來還不錯，但是不爭的事實是：在過去兩年中只要他上場，
就會傷害球隊的進攻。
The one thing Turner does well is defensive rebound, and I
mean he does it phenomenally well. Turner's 22.2 defensive
rebound rate not only led all shooting guards, it was quite
likely the best of all-time by a guard. Position definitions
can be hazy, but a basketball-reference.com search produced
nobody in the same zip code -- Jason Kidd's 20.8 in 2006-07
was the best I could do. Turner's mark would have ranked in
the top quarter of power forwards and bested a majority of the
league's centers; Pau Gasol, Emeka Okafor, Roy Hibbert and
Paul Millsap all had worse defensive rebound rates than Turner.
不過有些事情Turner做得很不錯，那就是他的防守籃板的能力相當凶悍，
而且請注意，不是普通凶悍，是非常凶悍。他有著難以置信的22.2%的
防守籃板率(這當然領先了所有的得分後衛)，而且在後衛的世界中，這
很有可能是歷史級的紀錄。雖然用位置來看可能有高估的嫌疑，不過當
我在basketball-reference.com仔細的翻找，能夠找到最接近的單季後
衛籃板率是Jason Kidd在06-07創造的20.8%。這樣的數字甚至可以在PF
的世界當中佔排頭的四分之一。甚至有一些你認為的頂尖中鋒們，像是
Pau Gasol/Okafor/Hibbert/Millsap的防守籃板率都比不上Turner。
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
SPENCER HAWES, PF
Scouting report
+ Skilled 7-footer who likes high post. Good passer and can
shoot with range.
一個在高位有著天賦與頂尖技巧的七呎長人，具有很不錯的傳球能力與
視野，同時能夠在遠距離進行投射。
+ Solid rebounder. Has decent post game but rarely displays
it. Shies from contact.
保護籃板做得非常不錯，有還不錯的低位技巧但是他很少使用，因為他
不擅長面對碰撞且極端刻意避免面對。
+ Has size to be good defender but needs more toughness and
strength.
他有著身為好的防守球員所應該具備的身材條件，但是必須更硬、更強
大才能夠體現。
Analysis
Nobody's quite sure what to make of Hawes' season, which
consisted of a glorious breakout in the opening weeks followed
by a steady trail-off toward the Hawes everybody remembered.
The cautiously optimistic take is that he's become a much
better high-post operator, particularly as a passer, and that
combined with his midrange game makes him something of a poor
man's Brad Miller but with better defense.
沒有任何一個人可以精準的評價上個球季的耗子哥。他去年一開始看起
來是處在一個全面進化的階段，但是在受傷之後似乎又變回了原本那個
死耗子。但是值得樂觀的是他成為一個非常成功的高位起點，尤其是他
的傳球非常到位，加上他的中距離能力，讓他成為一個窮人板本的Brad
Miller，外加稍微強悍一點的防守。
The negative take is that his shooting marks were a fluke, he
still never draws fouls, and if he was so good how come the
Sixers practically fell over themselves to get him out of the
game in the playoffs? Hawes shot 56.8 percent before the
All-Star break, 44.3 percent after, and 46.3 percent in the
playoffs.
但是從反面的角度，你可以質疑他的命中率可能只是好運，而他仍然無
法要到犯規，甚至你可以質疑他：如果他真的這麼好，七六人怎麼會差
一點點就進不了季後賽？他在全明星賽前有著靠北的56.8%的命中率，
但是他在全明星賽後只有44.3%，在季後賽只有46.3%。
Given that he's shot in the 46 percent range his entire career
except for that brief outburst before the break, we should
expect a regression this season. And that's unfortunate
because he never draws fouls, so he needs a high field goal
percentage or some 3s to offset that shortcoming. Otherwise,
he's a middling offensive option at best.
他的生涯也待蓋就是46%左右的命中率，所以你有理由相信他的前半季
的命中率也許就是有運氣成份與水分，甚至可以期待他下個球季就跌回
生涯水準。而且不幸的是，因為他遠離禁區，且不太能夠製造犯規，所
以如果他不能加強他的命中率，或者丟更多三分，不然他就只是個平凡
的進攻球員。
However, his development as a playmaker was real and notable.
Hawes ranked fourth among centers in assist ratio and second
in pure point rating.
不過撇開命中率的話題，他在傳球、視野甚至戰術運作上的成長是真實
且難以被忽略的。在所有的中鋒當中，他的助攻失誤比(Ast/to)是第四
高，且在純控指數上排名第二。
Defensively, Hawes was a bit of a weak link, something that
was more apparent because Philly's other bigs were so good.
Synergy Stats gave him decent grades, but opposing centers had
an 18.3 player efficiency rating against him according to
82games.com, and the Sixers gave up 2.4 points per 100
possessions more with him on the court. While his rebounding
and shot-blocking numbers were solid, his lack of physicality
and middling mobility were a problem. The latter is likely to
be more exposed if Philly's plan to start him at the 4 comes
to fruition.
在防守上，他看起來真的比較差，不過在費城的其他長人都有著強大防
守端能力與產出的情況下，讓他變得比較突出。雖然Synergy給他一個
還過得去的評價，但是82games.com表示只要他守的中鋒平均有著18.3
的PER(聯盟平均是15)，而且耗子在場時，七六人平均一百波進攻會多
丟2.4分。另外，雖然他有很不錯得籃板與補防表現，但是他過於軟弱
以及較差的機動性將會是個問題。如果七六人真的打算讓他以先發四號
出發，那這些問題有被放大的風險。
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
ANDREW BYNUM, C
Scouting report
+ Huge post weapon who can establish deep position and score
from short range.
一個難以抵擋的低位武器，能夠要到深位位，並能夠在接近籃框的位置
倚靠技巧或技術取分。
+ Excellent shot-blocker. Won't rotate to perimeter but
protects basket.
絕佳的大掃把。雖然不常支援外圍輪轉，但是在保護籃框的工作上有著
十分傑出的表現。
+ Good post defender. Capable passer but tends to hold ball.
Very injury-prone.
低位大鋼板。有著不錯的傳球能力，但是有時會傾向自己打掉。另外有
著健康上的風險。
Analysis
Bynum stayed healthy all season and broke out with a
career-best season, making the first of what's likely to be
several All-Star teams thanks to his dominant low-post game.
The key for Bynum is getting shots at the rim; he took nearly
five a game and converted a stellar 73.2 percent of them, plus
he drew a high rate of fouls and most came in this area. He
was mortal when pushed to 3-to-9 feet and forced to rely on
short hook shots, converting 42.6 percent.
Drew去年整季保持健康且打出了生涯的最佳表現；拜他令人印象深刻的
爆炸性低位表現，還入選了他本來應該多次入選的全明星隊。關鍵在於
Bynum能夠持續在靠近籃框的位置轟炸，一場比賽至少要在籃下出手五
次，還能維持73.2%的命中率，再外加能夠換到大量的犯規。不過當他
被推到離籃框3~9呎的區域時候，他的效率將會比較差，而且命中率就
只剩下42.6%，還比較常依賴小勾射。
Lakers coach Mike Brown also gave Bynum's numbers a nudge by
playing him with the second unit to start the second and
fourth quarters; with no Kobe Bryant to monopolize the ball,
it ensured lots of touches for Bynum. As a result, his
40-minute scoring rate improved by a whopping five points.
另外Mike Brown讓他跟著第二陣容打也一定程度幫助了他把數字往上推，
他通常在第二節與第四節開始時就披甲上陣；當場上沒有Kobe長時間持
有球權時就能夠有效確保Drew獲得足夠的進攻機會。他的per40得分就
因此有了顯著的成長，大約多了五分左右。
Like his teammate Pau Gasol, Bynum also benefited from an
extremely low foul rate that allowed him stay on the court, as
his rate of 1.93 whistles per 40 minutes was the least of any
frontcourt player. While this sometimes was a negative -- he
won't take a foul to prevent a layup, unless his team is down
by 30 and J.J. Barea is steaming down the middle of the lane
-- it allowed him to play over 35 minutes a game despite iffy
stamina.
另外跟他前任好隊友Pau Gasol一樣，維持極低的犯規頻率幫助了Drew
穩定維持他在數字上的績效，平均每40分鐘出場只能只會累積1.93次的
犯規，這在所有前場球員當中毫無疑問是頂尖水準。只要不要落後三十
分，場上也沒有J.J. Barea的話，他能夠保證自己不對切進來的後場球
員飛蛾撲火，並且能保證自己在場上能夠馳騁至少35分鐘。
Better yet, he only missed six games, after missing an average
of 31 the previous four seasons. The pounding of his huge
frame on the knees will be a major story to watch going
forward, as knee problems have caused all his absences.
去年更令人驚喜的是：在之旗四年，Drew平均一季要缺席31場比賽；但
他上季只缺席了六場比賽。他膝蓋所受過的舊傷將是最大的隱憂，而他
幾乎所有的缺席都是肇因於這雙膝蓋。
Meanwhile, Bynum also contributed in other areas. He's an
elite rebounder who ranked tenth among centers, and he
protected the rim well, finishing in the top third among
centers in blocks.
另外Drew在其他方面也有很不錯的表現。他的籃板率在聯盟全數的中鋒
當中排名前十，另外能有效保護籃框，在火鍋的數量上毫無疑問的是五
號位置毫無疑問的前三名。
About the only negative, aside from his occasional fantasies
of becoming a 3-point shooter, is that he holds the ball a lot
in the post and brings the offense to a screeching halt.
Making quicker moves and decisions, especially against
double-teams, will only make him more potent on the block. So,
too would eliminating the comfort dribble that he constantly
feels the need to take. Nonetheless, he's arrived as the
game's second-best center, and will be just 25 on opening day.
扣掉那可笑的三分話題，Drew唯一的瑕疵是他常常在低位要球，而他可
能破壞球的流動性。他必須學會更明快的做出抉擇，尤其是當必然會出
現的包夾出現時，他必須快速找到能幫助他的隊友，才能夠協助他往前
更進一步；並且能協助他在嘗試要單打時，取得更舒服的下球空間。但
無論如何，他是以聯盟第二中鋒的頭銜降臨在兄弟友愛之城，這是毫無
疑問的事實，且今年開季他才剛剛滿25歲，還是擁有無限的想像空間。
￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣￣
Hollinger如果可以趕快把什麼場合用什麼數據說清楚，
而不是亂創指標，他會變得更值得尊敬。
Nice piece.
--
Definitely one of the all-time under-rated sixers. Glad to see
him finally getting some league wide recognition the last few
years (All-star, All-NBA defense, Team USA). As much as he's
been bashed on these boards over the years I'm sure he'll be
missed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wV0ubjT6eDk
76ers' ACE of Spades in the past Decade, Andre Iguodala #9 forever.
--
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