Offseason Breakdown: Should the Spurs Trade Manu Ginobili?

[iIvan (go O out)]

http://tinyurl.com/qf6us7

（以下翻譯有些我個人覺得不重要的就會稍微簡略僅翻大意）

In his final interview of the season, Gregg Popovich talked about hard
offseasons. This offseason, he suggested, would be difficult because the team
will say goodbye to some of its role players. Telling the Robert Horrys of
the world that it’s time to part is never easy. But then Pop said something
else that struck me as telling. He said there would come a time when the
Spurs would have to replace a star with a star. He was quick to add that the
time had not yet come, but gave an impression that it was not too far off.

Pop在本季最後一次專訪中提到這將會是個非常困難的offseason，因為馬刺必須向一些功
能球員說再見了。向Robert Horry般的球員們分手永遠令人難受。但是Pop接著說的其他
事情則讓我震驚。他說總有一天馬刺將必須用別的球星來取代自己的球星。他馬上補充
這一天還沒到來，但是感覺起來這一天並不遠。

As Spurs fans, this is something for which we have to prepare.

身為馬刺迷，這是我們必須做好心理準備的一件事。

Looking at the Big 3, one would assume Tim Duncan will retire a Spur. He’s
part of the fabric–he is the franchise. Tim Duncan is one of the most
untouchable players in the league. So when the Spurs arrive at the point of a
star for a star, it’s beyond doubtful that they wave goodbye to Duncan. His
contract is locked up through 2012, and he’s safe.

以下檢視一下我們的三巨頭。我想一般人都會假設老大會在馬刺退休（合約到2012），也
是聯盟中最不可能被動的球員之一。他是安全的。

At 26, Tony Parker is close to his prime. I think he’s the second best point
guard in the league, just behind Chris Paul. If you’re going by All-NBA
votes, Parker certainly belongs in that conversation. Relative to talent, he
has a good contract that only pays 13 million in its final year (2011). The
Spurs really would have to receive a can’t refuse offer to trade Parker. An
elite point guard, in a point guard dominated league, that is a 3-time NBA
champion and former Finals MVP. And 26. And he has a good contract. Whatever
price you name is too low.

小趴才26，準備進入顛峰期。他是我心目中目前NBA僅次於CP3的第二PG。他的約很合理（
合約到2011），除非有不可拒絕的交易offer端出來，否則他也是安全的。

That leaves us with Manu Ginobili. When healthy, he’s one the best 10
players in the league. His incredibly affordable contract is set to expire
after next season. He’ll be 32 in July. He has an insatiable lust to play
for his country, which is admirable and unfortunate. But that lust walks hand
in hand with qualities that make him more valuable than other stars–the man
is an absolute winner. Euroleague title? Yes. Olympic gold? Yes. NBA
Championship? Three. Whatever it is that Chauncey Billups brought to the
Nuggets, Manu Ginobili has in spades.

所以就剩下地中海帥哥Manu了。健康時的Manu，他是聯盟中前十佳的球員。他出奇地佛心
的合約在下一季結束後到期。今年七月他將滿32歲。他對於打國家隊有莫名的渴望，這令
人欽佩卻又不幸。這樣的渴望伴隨著令他比其他球星更有價值的特質—這個男人是個徹頭
徹尾的winner。歐聯冠軍？有。奧運金牌？有。NBA冠軍？三枚。不管槍西帶給金塊什麼
，Manu同樣都作得到。

But it’s obvious to me that if the Spurs have to let go of a star, he is the
most likely candidate. This isn’t to say that the Spurs will seek to trade
Ginobili. I don’t think they should or will. Pop is correct to say the time
to exchange a star for a star is not yet. But next summer I expect Manu
Ginobili to receive the same treatment Tony Parker did in 2003. Remember
that? The Spurs had just beat the Nets in the Finals, Parker’s team had
bested Jason Kidd’s team, and the Spurs still put Parker on ice and chased
after Kidd in free agency. Well, next summer the Spurs will approach Ginobili
in the same way while they make an offer to the star who could replace him–
Dwayne Wade seems like an impossibility, but Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh or even
Dirk Nowitzki are within the pale. And after the Spurs make an offer to a
player of that caliber, they’ll have to throw some money at Tiago Splitter.
You see all that much ballyhooed cap space evaporating?

但是對我來說，假設馬刺必須放手一名球星，Manu是最可能的人選。這不代表馬刺會試著
交易他。我不認為他們應該或將會這樣做。Pop說的沒錯，時候還沒到。但是明年夏天我
預期Manu將會受到小趴在2003的待遇。記得嗎？馬刺試著追逐身為自由球員的Kidd而讓小
趴坐立不安。Well，明年夏天馬刺將會故技重施，對其他可能取代Manu的球星提出offer
—Wade看來不可能，但是鷹王，龍王甚至小牛王都有可能。接著當馬刺對那個等級的球員
提出offer後，他們還需要在莫再提身上花點錢。看出這樣將會讓薪資空間蒸發了嗎？

But if they can’t land a star, they’ll extend Ginobili. At least, that’s
how I think things will shake out.

但是假設他們無法簽下一名球星，他們將會跟Manu續約。至少，這是我認為事情發展的走
向。

It’s in the Spurs best interest to give the Big 3 at least one more season
together. Trading Manu Ginobili is an unthinkable proposition for the Spurs,
in part because they’re in a great position by simply allowing his contract
to expire. And, of course, he’s Manu Ginobili.  The time is not yet.

對馬刺來說維持三巨頭至少一季將對他們最為有利。交易Manu對馬刺來說應該想都不用想
，部分來說因為就這樣讓合約走完最為有利。以及，當然，他可是Manu Ginobili。時候
還沒到。

Obviously, the landscape changes dramatically if the Spurs take on someone
else’s cap dump this summer, but we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it.
But despite all this, I suspect there will be Ginobili chatter behind the
scenes. Why? While I don’t think the Spurs have any interest in trading Manu
Ginobili, I think they’ll receive more calls about his availability than
ever before. This might seem counter-intuitive given his recent injuries, but
if you’re an opposing GM you know:

即使如此（馬刺不會在今年交易Manu這個情形），我懷疑仍然會有很多關於交易Manu的協
商默默進行。Why？即使我認為馬刺不會有興趣交易Manu，制服組仍會接到比以往更多的
詢問電話。因為如果你是他隊GM你知道：

‧      the Spurs need to reload, and their assets are limited
        馬刺需要補強，而他們的銀彈有限

‧      if healthy, Manu Ginobili can lead a team to glory
        只要健康，Manu可以帶領球隊重返榮耀

‧      he is only due to make 11 million next season
        下一季他的合約只值11M

‧      his contract is expiring, so the risk is minimal
        合約屆滿，風險極小化

‧      even if he doesn’t return to form, his bird rights and a scaled back
        contract offer give any team an insanely good 6th man going forward
        即使他無法回復狀態，他的鳥權及薪資逐年下降的合約可以帶給任何一支球隊超
        讚的第六人。

The problem for other GMs is that the Spurs aren’t stupid, and you can’t
get Manu Ginobili through some ill-conceived salary dump. The Spurs are smart
not to return calls, but even if they did pick up the phone, the initial
offer would have to be strong in order to keep San Antonio on the line.  Say
it with me, “He’s Manu Ginobili.”

對其他GM來說問題出在馬刺制服組不笨而且也不可能用一些清薪資空間用的雜魚來獲得
Manu。馬刺夠聰明不會回那些電話的，但是即使他們真的接起電話，開頭的offer必須有
利到讓馬刺不掛電話。跟我說一次：「他可是Manu Ginobili。」

And here’s the thing: you can comb through every roster in the league, and
you’ll be hard pressed to find a deal that gives enough value or makes
enough long term sense for San Antonio. It’s too difficult to trade a star
without losing your hat.

情況是這樣的：你可以檢視聯盟中每隊的roster，然後發現很難找到有足夠價值或是對馬
刺有長期幫助的交易。要交易掉隊上球星而不被摘掉烏紗帽太困難了。

But I did look. And I looked. And I looked some more. I looked at every
roster in the league for an offer that might make the Spurs think. I came up
with three. Three offers that I’m nearly certain the Spurs would reject, but
that would nevertheless cause them to hold the line for a few minutes.

我努力的看阿看，看阿看，最後我找出三筆可能交易。這三筆我幾乎可以確定馬刺會拒絕
，然而至少可以讓電話維持在線上幾分鐘。

1.      Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto for Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace
        and Alexis Ajinca
2.      Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto for Ben Gordon and Tyrus Thomas
3.      Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto for Tayshaun Prince and Amir Johnson

You can see why those teams might call and pester San Antonio.

你可以瞭解為什麼這些球隊會打給馬刺並纏著他們。

Not only could Charlotte use a star to market to fans, but they could use
Ginobili’s expiring contract. He’d make the team better, he’d help their
pocketbook, and he’d free up 2010 cash. Win, win, win. Moreover, it’s
doubtful they can resign Felton. So in reality that’s Wallace and Ajinca for
Manu. Yes, please.

山貓不只可以用球星來作行銷，他們也可以利用Manu的到期合約。Manu可以讓球隊提升，
可以幫助他們的荷包，還可以清出2010的薪資空間。勝利、勝利、勝利。更何況，能否續
簽Felton也是問題。因此事實上是用Wallace+Ajinca for Manu。是喔，當然好啊。

Ben Gordon came up big for the Bulls in the playoffs, but he wants a little
more money than he’s worth, and more money than the Bulls can pay without
damaging their cap situation. Getting Ginobili, to pair with Rose, Deng, Noah
and Salmons would be a coup. It would put them in a better position to trade
Hinrich. And, of course, it would give greater flexibility next summer when
Ginobili and Brad Miller’s contracts expire. If you can’t resign Gordon,
Manu Ginobili for Ty Thomas is an easy choice.

狗蛋在今年季後賽對公牛相當重要，但是他期望比他的身價高了一些的數字，而這多出來
的薪資將無可避免的破壞公牛的薪資空間。獲得Manu，讓他搭配Rose, Deng, Noah及
Salmons會是成功之舉。這樣將讓他們在交易Hinrich時立場更有利。而且明年夏天當Manu
跟Miller合約到期後也有更多彈性。假設你無法續簽狗蛋，Manu Ginobili for Ty
Thomas是個簡單到不行的決定。

The Detroit trade is a little more dicey. Could the Pistons play Hamilton at
small forward? In the long run, I don’t think it matters. Prince and
Hamilton are part of the old face, and Joe Dumars is currently giving the
team a facelift. I’m not sure that either player is in Detroit’s long term
plans.  What matters is that Manu Ginobili is the anti-Iverson. If he plays
for your team, it gets better. But even more importantly, landing Manu
Ginobili would reduce Detroit’s cap by 11 million in 2010, bringing it down
to around 20 million. I’m not even sure if that’s legal. And they’d still
have Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton. Hello rebuild. With that kind of
flexibility, the Pistons could resign Ginobili and two All-Stars in 201o to
pair with Rodney Stuckey. In other words, they could become serious
contenders in the space of one humid Midwestern afternoon.

與活塞的交易就稍微多了點不確定性。活塞可以讓鐵面人打到三號嗎？長期來說，我不認
為這個問題有多重要。小王子跟鐵面人是老面孔了，而Dumars正試圖讓活塞變臉。我不確
定有任何球員在活塞的長期藍圖中。重要的是Manu是個跟AI不同的球員。只要他在你隊上
，就會有所提升。更重要的是，可以幫助活塞在2010清出11M薪資空間，讓薪資空間來到
20M左右。我甚至懷疑這違法。而且他們仍擁有Stuckey與鐵面人。Hello重建。有了這樣
的薪資彈性，活塞可以在2010重簽Manu及兩位All-Stars來與Stuckey搭配。換句話說，他
們將成為聯盟中的強力競爭者。

Let me reduce this down to a fine point:  is there a more attractive expiring
contract in the entire league than Manu Ginobili? R.C. Buford’s phone is
ringing.

讓我簡化的說：聯盟中還有比Manu更吸引人的到期合約嗎？R.C. Buford的電話響囉。

Most of our readers can see why these scenarios would bring pause prior to
dismissal. But I think dismissal is the right choice. Gerald Wallace is half
the player of Ginobili and twice as injury prone; it’s doubtful that Ben
Gordon is “a Spur” in terms of team culture (and would the Spurs be willing
to give up their 2010 cap space for him?); as good as Tayshaun Prince is, he
and Amir Johnson do not add up to Ginobili in terms of talent, and you lose
your 2010 cap space. No thanks.

多數的讀者可以理解這些組合為何會讓馬刺在拒絕前稍稍暫停。但我認為拒絕是對的決定
。Gerald Wallace只及得上半個Manu而且有兩倍的受傷可能；而狗蛋令人質疑他是否適合
成為馬刺的文化（而且馬刺是否願意為了他放棄2010計畫？）；即使優秀如小王子，他與
Amir Johnson加起來在天分上仍不及Manu，而且將會喪失2010的薪資空間。不了，謝謝。

Ultimately, it’s too difficult to replace Manu Ginobili in a trade. The Spurs
’ best move is, just as Pop indicated, to wait until the time is right. So,
if you’re one of those fans who are thinking about a star for a star
rebuild, you’ll have to wait patiently at least one more season.  The Spurs
best chance at competing for a title is to wait until next summer or by
blowing up their 2010 strategy and trading for another star to pair with
Duncan-Parker-Ginobili.

最後，要用球員交易來取代Manu真的太難了。馬刺的最佳策略是，如同Pop所言，等待時
機成熟。所以，假設你是那些希望以球星對球星交易進行重建的球迷之一，你至少要再等
上一季。馬刺衝擊下一枚冠軍戒指的最佳機會將是等待明年夏天補強或是放棄2010計畫以
交易另一名球星來搭配三巨頭。


--
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◆ From: 140.109.168.86
※ 編輯: iIvan           來自: 140.109.168.86       (05/25 18:09)
→ demongreg:沒推  樓下快幫我
推 ando:結論:大家再挨個一季等待新馬刺的出現 當然也可能一成不變
→ ando:Big3最具交易價值的一定是Manu 但是要換回什麼樣的東西
→ ando:交易才有意義   下一季Manu打好對馬刺對他自己都很有利
→ iIvan:2010感覺真的會是大混戰,個個有機會,人人沒把握,不無風險
→ ando:爭取新合約要看他明年的表現 如果馬刺想維持冠軍的競爭力
→ ando:去年暑假不談延長合約是對的 談了大家都沒好處
推 word324:老大合約到2012 那時他也沒到退休的年齡 不知續約會是幾年
推 ando:現在33 2012算35  最多不會超過五年吧
推 koflll:山貓那一筆交易我還蠻心動的...
→ ando:要看球隊怎麼談 兩年兩年簽 之後再一年一年 或是三年兩年
→ ando:要看他跟球隊怎麼談還有那時候他的身體狀況跟身手
→ ando:那還好久遠的事情短期間內不需要考慮啦XD
→ ando:山貓那個有點小搶劫的感覺 Felton跟G蛙是即戰力  送一個配菜
→ ando:選項2得到一個很強的得分手跟未來性的大前鋒 也不錯
→ ando:選項3的話3號位就有解了 加個潛力股Amir
推 alex40214:推
推 hllwolfkhan:山貓那個不錯ㄟ...
推 graben:看完整篇 發現後面都再也沒提到前面所提到的球星
→ graben:例如鷹王 龍王 換到有點扯 就算是後面這麼多理由和薪資空間
→ graben:至於換得到小牛王真的記太扯了也太殺了 仇人變隊友...
※ 編輯: iIvan           來自: 140.109.168.86       (05/25 19:55)
※ 編輯: iIvan           來自: 140.109.168.86       (05/25 19:58)
→ iIvan:樓上誤會囉,文章意思是說等2010清出cap space有機會競逐那些
→ iIvan:大牌FA,後面提到的則是2010前用Manu來進行交易的可能對象
推 penny1119:推~~~
推 purist:為什麼我覺得,3的話,可以喔>"<
推 ando:Finley過去可是視包大叔為敵人阿XD
推 clivezzz:不離不器！
推 rahim1211:牛王超棒的說,來跟鐵牛再續前緣啊XD
推 demongreg:我比較想要龍王！雖然這樣老大又要打C但至少是禁區份子
推 bryant780113:感覺都不太划算 prince不錯 但配菜不好
推 CseSquall:推啊 不過我還是希望Manu留下 唉
推 johnnynono:prince是很棒的球員...配菜可以好一點嗎?
推 PiLiPaLa:推
推 jiuan1027:Prince是不錯 但只加個Amir 也太小看Manu的價值了
推 koflll:說歸說  其實個人不希望動到三巨頭  其餘的皆可動 = =
推 hwc7641:推一下
推 SpeedofSound:除了三巨頭也沒甚麼可以動的了...其他的價值都不高
推 Loj:Amir在簽約前馬刺也是對他有興趣的，目前看起來Amir成長的不是
→ Loj:很順利，不過他明年也是 3.6M 到期合約，算是進可攻退可守。
推 s952750:是很心動...但不想交易 manu穿上他隊球衣好怪 = =
推 a2364983:在我看來 那三個交易都不值得換到MANU 一點都不心動= =
推 pedroremorse:馬刺能端出的好貨就只有manu了 除了manu 其他都是
→ pedroremorse:龍套球員或是未打出身價的新人 交易價值不高啊
推 a2364983:Manu迷哭哭 同時身為刺刺迷跟馬怒迷該何去何從(泣
推 ando:情感上不希望換 但理智上就... 不過無論如何Manu明年表現
→ ando:一定要好 這樣才會是雙贏局面  加油加油
→ greatodin:你不要走~~~~
→ greatodin:換到什麼東西比較重要
推 bluewindwmg:Manu應該想在聖城退休吧，也是眾多馬刺迷想看到的
推 leafinfree:暗黑制服組不要讓manu離開阿 我希望20號在AT&T退休 哭
推 iamdada: 假如因為換manu而得到冠軍...
推 pedroremorse:主要看明年表現 明年Manu能回復多少功力會決定一切..
→ iIvan:大家都捨不得阿 最好是Manu恢復05年身手 那就不會放人了
推 leon1228:No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No! No!
→ leon1228:Manu不可以走啊~~~~走了我該怎麼辦啊~~~~要在馬刺退休啦~
推 jealousguy:iamdada那句讓我想到 假如因為換槍西而得到冠軍...XD
推 blackdevil:最差的是跟公牛交易 她們全隊的防守觀念...........
推 hllwolfkhan:還是希望馬妞在馬刺退休...淚推了~
推 Arluyo:Manu下季大爆發吧 XD 我想繼續在馬刺看到你阿阿阿~~~