作者parkerwind (孤星淚)
看板Spurs
標題[情報] Health is more vital than top seed
時間Fri Apr 1 14:58:14 2011
外電網址:
http://0rz.tw/Z3kN6
Mike Monroe: Health is more vital than top seed
蒙羅:健康比第一種子重要
Posted on March 29, 2011 at 10:27 pm by Mike Monroe in Gregg Popovich, Mike
Monroe, San Antonio Spurs, Western Conference
There’s panic in South Texas.
在南德克薩斯州有件令人恐慌的事………
With key players battling injuries, the Spurs have lost four straight games.
First place in the Western Conference no longer seems certain.
Suddenly sizzling, the Lakers are in hot pursuit, a once-daunting gap
narrowing.
伴隨著關鍵球員在比賽中受傷，馬刺隊已經苦吞四連敗了。(譯者:現在五連敗了Q_Q)
在西區的頭號種子已不再屹立不搖。
湖人隊氣勢正旺，用驚人的速度縮小了勝差。
Should the Spurs drop into second place in the West, a segment of their fans
will blame Gregg Popovich for being too cautious with players nursing aches
and pains when Monday’s game against the Trail Blazers arrived.
如果馬刺隊掉到西區第二，會有一群球迷責怪波波維奇在星期一對抗拓荒者時對於球員太
過保護。
Second-guessers insist Tony Parker and Antonio McDyess would have guaranteed
victory in that game. After all, a lineup that included deep reserves Danny
Green, Chris Quinn and Steve Novak nearly pulled out a victory.
有一種猜測認為，如果Parker和馬岱有上場的話將可在那場比賽拿到勝利。畢竟，一個
包括板凳中的板凳:Green,Quinn,Novak的這種陣容都差點贏了。
This is a fan’s logic and ignores reality.
這是一個粉絲的邏輯，但他忽略了一些事實
Would George Hill have been as aggressive at the offensive end had Parker
played Monday?
Would McDyess have defended LaMarcus Aldridge more effectively than Tiago
Splitter?
Would the full lineup have defended more ferociously than the outfit Popovich
had on the court in the third quarter, when Portland scored only nine points?
The more important question: Is one victory in late March worth risking
further damage to aggravating injuries that need to heal by mid-April?
如果Parker星期一有上場，Hill還有辦法在進攻端打的那麼有侵略性嗎？
馬岱守阿基基會比剔牙哥守的更有效嗎？
波波在第三節排的陣容只讓拓荒者得9分，用完整的陣容一定會更猛烈嗎？
更重要的問題是：一場三月底的勝利值得進一步損害加重受傷，需等到 4月中旬才能醫好
的風險嗎？
Ask Popovich about the importance of the No. 1 seed, and the response never
varies: Nobody would turn down home-court advantage, but it’s not as
important as being healthy.
當問到波波維奇對1號種子的重要性，他的反應永遠不變的：沒有人會拒絕主場優勢，但
它不如自己身體健康重要。
History proves this. The Rockets were a No. 6 seed in 1995, when Hakeem
Olajuwon missed 10 games and Clyde Drexler joined the team after a Valentine’
s Day trade and had to work through some nagging injuries of his own before
gaining traction with his new team.
歷史證明這一點。火箭隊在1995是 6號種子，當時奧拉朱旺錯過了10場比賽，Drexler在
情人節的交易加盟球隊後，他在融入球隊前必須先把擾人的傷勢養好。
No dyed-in-the-wool Spurs fan has forgotten how little home-court advantage
meant in the conference finals, when the Rockets won three times at the
Alamodome and eliminated the Spurs in six games.
沒有死忠的馬刺球迷會忘記在分區決賽的主場優勢有多麼微不足道，火箭隊在Alamodome(
馬刺前主場)獲得三次勝利並在6場比賽中勝出。(譯者:我當時還小什麼都不知道XD)
A No. 1 seed nearly guarantees advancement past the first round, but not
always. Since the league adopted a 16-team postseason format, beginning with
the 1983-84 playoffs, No. 1 seeds are 51-3 in the first round.
No. 2 seeds have been nearly as successful in the first round. Only five No.
2 seeds have failed to advance.
過去1號種子幾乎是第一輪勝出的保證，但並非總是如此。由於聯盟自1983-84季後賽開始
採取了聯賽 16支球隊打進季後賽的格式，第1號種子在第一輪的戰績是51次勝出3次落敗
(譯者:這裡的1號種子是包括東區和西區，因此從1983-84~2009-10共有27個球季，所以
有54個1號種子)
2號種子通過第一輪的機率也差不多高。 2號種子總共只有5次無法晉級。
It’s more important to examine the rate of success for No. 1 seeds in
conference finals. The home-court advantage has been important, but hardly
vital.
Since the 16-team format was adopted, 16 No. 1 seeds have emerged from 27
Western finals; 16 from 27 Eastern finals.
That’s hardly the sort of empirical evidence that would persuade a coach to
throw caution to the wind in pursuit of a 59.3 percent edge.
比起通過第一輪，第1種子贏得分區冠軍的機率更引起注目。主場優勢一直都很重要，但
並不是至關重要的。
自從季後賽採取16支球隊晉級，在27次的西區決賽有16個1號種子勝出， 27次的東區決賽
也有16個1號種子獲得勝利。
要說服一個教練把謹慎棄之不顧去追求59.3%的機率是不太可能的(譯者:16/27≒0.593)
In their four championship runs, the Spurs twice had the No. 1 seed in the
West — in 1999 and 2003. Phoenix was the West’s No. 1 seed in 2005, Dallas
in 2007.
A Spurs lead once seen as insurmountable at the top of the West seems
precarious with eight games left, their magic number stuck on six.
在他們得到總冠軍的那四年，馬刺隊曾兩次在在西區獲得1號種子(1999年和2003年)。
2005年是鳳凰城，2007年則是達拉斯。
馬刺在剩下的八場比賽似乎很難維持住西區頭號種子的寶座，他們的魔術數字停留在六。
The biggest problem with the magic number?
The Spurs can’t wave a wand and make the Lakers lose.
Los Angeles is 15-1 since the All-Star break. There is no good reason to
believe the Lakers can’t close out the regular season with nine more
victories.
To preserve the top seed, the Spurs will have to do the heavy lifting on
their own, possibly needing to win six of their final eight.
Isn’t that how Popovich would prefer they get it?
魔術數字最大的問題是什麼？
馬刺隊不能揮舞魔杖，讓湖人隊止勝。
洛杉磯自從全明星賽後戰績15W1L。沒有充分的理由顯示湖人不能在常規賽再贏9場勝利。
為了維持頭號種子，馬刺將不得不辛苦些，可能最後8場要贏6場。
這究竟是不是波波比較希望他們得到的呢？ (譯者:Who knows?)
這篇文章主要在說頭號種子代表的全部主場優勢似乎不是太重要
1號種子成功打進總冠軍賽的機率只有59.3% 但種子序越後面的機率一定更低啊
這是可想而知的~ 而且在主場勝出還是比客場容易 所以這篇看看就好....
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◆ From: 140.113.121.101
※ 編輯: parkerwind 來自: 140.113.121.101 (04/01 15:00)
推 spurs2120:你搞錯了XD 這篇文章是在說第一種子很重要 04/01 15:09
推 spurs2120:但健康又更重要（後面幾段都是說第一種子的重要性） 04/01 15:09
→ parkerwind:是喔XD 我怎麼看不出來? 04/01 15:10
→ parkerwind:那火箭對那段不就是在打臉嗎? XD 04/01 15:10
推 idioteque:能維持主力球員的身體健康，以迎接強度更高的季後賽，或 04/01 15:11
推 spurs2120:我覺得作者沒有明確的立場啦，他是提供所有相關資訊 04/01 15:11
→ idioteque:許比爭取第一種子來的重要 04/01 15:11
推 spurs2120:我沒看英文，不過看起來作者的用詞也有點反覆 XD 04/01 15:12
→ parkerwind:我翻到一半也覺得他立場不明不太想翻 但還是得翻完Orz 04/01 15:13
推 spurs2120:哈哈，翻完還是有價值啊，後段幾個數據不錯。 04/01 15:14
推 fracs:但是季末一直連敗的隊伍過第二輪的機率是多少呢？ 04/01 15:14
→ parkerwind:樓上QQ 04/01 15:15
推 benson:湖人去年季末也只有16-12 04/01 16:10
推 steveparker:其實黃蜂應該比灰熊好打 我想湖湖也不會想碰灰熊吧 04/01 16:24