[閒聊] 季後賽前一天

[Alfred (Keine Ahnung)]

球員們正忙著備戰並專注於季後賽，
不過球迷們在等待的同時稍微回顧一下也不錯，
最近看到幾篇文章覺得有趣，丟上來分享一下。

首先，有跟比賽的人應該都有注意到TD下半季不但狀況不錯，
許久不見的灌籃也跟著回來了。
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/tim-duncan-can-still-dunk-on-you-and-will-if-given-half-a-chance
這篇回顧了TD與灌籃的關係，
事實上在他的生涯前期，曾經長期維持在聯盟裡最常灌籃的前15名，
直到03-04球季還排在聯盟第9。而在那之後的數據如下：
Year    Dunks per minute
2002-03         0.039
2003-04         0.033
2004-05         0.029
2005-06         0.026
2006-07         0.021
2007-08         0.018
2008-09         0.010
2009-10         0.013
2010-11         0.016
2011-12         0.021
今年他的灌籃數據居然又回到了06-07年的水準，
以一個36歲的老將來說相當難得，也是相當出人意料的。

http://www.48minutesofhell.com/tim-duncans-next-contract
這篇長文相當深入且詳細的討論了TD的近況與下一張約的狀況，
約怎麼談現在且不急著討論，
不過TD的Shot Distribution那張圖表倒是相當有參考價值，
這段討論值得貼一下：
What are your observations of Tim Duncan’s evolution as a player? How does
the present Tim Duncan compare to his bygone incarnations?

Dewey: His days of dominating the post and lighting the Mavs up for 40 are
done, if only because he’s not as laterally quick and isolation offense
seems to use more energy than just about anything else in basketball (though
he can still carve up weaker defensive players like some such turkey).
Defensively, he can’t maneuver fast enough to make teams completely abandon
the pick and roll anymore (as we saw against the Suns in 2010). He’s lost a
step, plain and simple. That said, his rejuvenation this season – replete
with slam dunks, vintage midrange, and dominant quarters – was completely
unexpected, and he might have more left in the tank that I’m giving him
credit for. His midrange wasn’t falling at the beginning fo the season, and
it’s not clear what half of the season is the aberration at this stage. Tim’
s gifted floor vision and passing – both on par with a guard’s, even if he
doesn’t have the handle to match – has been crucial to the Spurs’ new
offensive approach of the last couple seasons. He can pass out of the pick
and roll (giving the Spurs one more path to the corner), out of a rebound on
both ends (his superb outlet passing helps the Spurs push the pace), out of a
broken play, and so on. Tim can’t do what he could, but his gifts are
serving him well in taking his game to a completely different setting.

Levy: While some of the specifics of his game has changed, his consistent
production has been unbelievable. Last season looked like the beginning of a
statistical decline, but this season his per 36 minute numbers are right back
where they’ve been for the past decade. Although his techniques rely more on
subtlety and guile than they once did, he’s been the same old Duncan for 28
minutes a night.

McGuire: I mostly echo what Ian and Alex are saying, but I call foul on one
aspect. His game hasn’t simply changed in subtlety — it’s changed in a
very big way that doesn’t get nearly enough press. Duncan has almost totally
revamped the way he gets his shots. Examine the following chart, to see how.

[圖表]

I tried to get a bunch of data on here, so let’s unpack it.

The lines represent the percentage of Duncan’s shots that came from each of
those four areas, which are mutually exclusive — that is, <9 foot shots
exclude at rim shots, <15 foot shots exclude the 3-9 foot shots, et cetera.
The yellow bars in the background, however, don’t correspond to percentage
of shots taken — those values correspond to the right hand y-axis, and it
represents the field goal percentage Duncan shot on shots outside 15 feet in
a given year. The main takeaway? Duncan has been raising the number of shots
he takes from long range in virtually every year since the 2007 title, with
one short blip at 2010. In that time, he’s steadily become less and less
reliant on his back to the basket at-rim game, and he’s transitioned to more
of a Kevin Garnett type outside shooter — this season, we’re seeing the
absolute culmination of that, as he takes more long shots than he takes any
other type, even theoretically easy rim shots. This in turn helps open up the
Spurs offense, especially when Duncan’s ability to make the shots is not in
any way compromised by the additional shots he’s taking from that range. Tim
’s ability to shoot a higher percentage as he shoots more long range shots
is absolutely incredible, and it’s an aspect of his aging game that may not
have been properly called out up to now.


接下來是Danny Green，
他近況火熱，雖然這實質上算是他的第一個季後賽，
但我仍然看好他能持續做出貢獻。
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/04/16/you-can-win-games-with-danny-green/
這篇好文回顧了他的大學時代與他在馬刺的日子，（文筆很好，跪求翻譯XD）
Danny Green isn’t the focus of this picture, but he’s there. And really,
that was the essence of what Danny Green brought to the North Carolina Tar
Heels from 2005-2009. Green was never the best, nor the most important player
on Roy Williams’ powerhouse teams, but he was always there.
（中略）
Danny Green isn’t the focus of this picture, but he’s there. And that’s
really the essence of what Danny Green has brought to the Spurs this season.
Green is not nearly the best, nor the most important player on Gregg Popovich
’s latest powerhouse team, but he’s always there. When Manu Ginobili got
hurt, there was Danny Green; ready to step up and be an important cog in the
machine. In his 30 starts this season, Green has averaged 10.4 points, 3.5
rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.5 blocks in 24.5 minutes per game. He
has shot 45.1% from the field, 44.8% from three and 78.9% from the free throw
line in those 30 games.

制服組似乎也相當滿意他的表現，
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/danny-green-spurs
在主場最後一場對阿扣的比賽裡，
Green被選為代表球員在賽前發表感謝球迷的演說，
似乎吐露出一些訊息，（當然也不用太過敏感，這只是個30秒的講話而已）
考慮到本季結束後他可能成為RFA，
已經有人在討論馬刺是否有足夠的薪資空間留下他，又該花多少，例如
http://www.poundingtherock.com/2012/4/27/2978296/san-antonio-spurs-salary-cap-danny-green-tim-duncan
無論如何，在季後賽結束前我們還不需要花太多心思在這上面，
可以預期季後賽的表現將會對這些事情帶來相當程度的影響。
So, 合約到期或快到期的各位同學，季後賽多加油吧！XD


最後我們來看一下最近很熱門的「養生」議題，
http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/steve_aschburner/04/26/top-coach-popovich/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1
官網這篇文章討論了今年最有可能的COY人選，
也就是兩個50勝教頭：Popovich與Thibodeau，
這篇文章提到：
Some ticket-buying fans and media folks got irritated when Popovich thumbed
his nose at the idea of NBA basketball as entertainment -- and maybe at a
sense of sportsmanship, too -- by having Duncan or Ginobili show up in a suit
or not at all. But Popovich didn't apologize for serving what he felt was the
greater good of another championship pursuit. And the league didn't seem to
care.

"I cringe but then I un-cringe," commissioner David Stern said Wednesday
about healthy stars withheld from games. "We knew in some ways it might be
intensified by the compactness of the season. That's something we have tried
to do in recent years, is not try to coach for the coach."

The fact is, in a crazy season that inspired several masterful performances,
the NBA didn't need anyone coaching for its head coaches. Popovich did just
fine, punctuating his season of rationing by resting even himself from the
Spurs' final two games; assistant Mike Budenholzer took over against the Suns
and will handle the sideline for game No. 66 at Golden State.

相當清楚的訊息了。不是嗎？XD

--
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◆ From: 99.125.165.60
推 kasen15:Green那篇的翻譯: http://ppt.cc/hfut
推 jiuan1027:波波:早說我就多休幾場(誤)
→ Alfred:感謝k大，請問是否有意願轉載至刺板？ :)
推 kasen15:done!這是對岸翻的啦~
推 alex40214:推!我最近也有再82games查過類似的數據 TD的跳投比例逐
→ alex40214:年增加 命中率的話其實這一季只比上一季好 (但我猜下半
→ alex40214:季的數據會漂亮不少) 我自己是覺得TD越來越適應較靈活的
→ alex40214:進攻方法 隨著年紀增大減重以避免膝蓋負荷 把對方笨重長
→ alex40214:人拉出來守跳投的時候 切入灌籃的機會就多了
→ alex40214:但到底是這樣或只是純粹最近狀況比較好 就有待觀察了
推 yatan0525:我倒覺得是馬刺攻勢順了因此跑出空檔機會變多有關..