[情報] More Offensive Geometry

[Alfred (Keine Ahnung)]

這篇進攻的進階數據研究值得一讀，
特別是其中有關馬刺與雷霆的對比，
可以當成這個系列賽的觀戰重點。

http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=4403

More Offensive Geometry
Posted on May 22, 2012 by Ian Levy
Two weeks ago, I wrote a piece for Hardwood Paroxysm on the Lakers’ offense
and how they use and distribute offensive possessions. The heart of that
piece was a set of radar graphs comparing the offensive distribution of the
Lakers to the Spurs, Thunder and Bobcats. After that post went up I received
quite a few requests to put similar graphs together for other teams, so I
just went ahead and covered the entire league. Here’s the explanation of how
the graphs are created and set up:

I began by combing mySynergySports and identifying every offensive outcome
for the Lakers that had occurred at least 100 times this season. By offensive
outcome I mean both possession type and the specific player who ultimately
used that possession. I was focused on deliberate offensive choices so I left
out transition possessions and offensive rebounds, who’s frequency may have
more to do with opportunity than deliberate design. The radar graph below
shows two different pieces of information for each outcome – the points per
possession that outcome netted the Lakers on average, and the total number of
times it occurred this season. The yellow line represents the points per
possession, the purple represents the number of occurrences. (Each vertical
segment of the graph represents 100 occurrences. Try as I might I couldn’t
get Excel to display the scales for both data sets without having them
overlap.)

Below are the graphs for all 30 NBA teams, covering this regular season. The
graphs are in order of team Offensive Rating from highest to lowest.

[30張圖表，一定要點進去看！]

In looking at these graphs there are a few important things to keep in mind.
First off, not all offensive possession types are created equal. Some
possessions are inherently more likely to be successful. For example, players
don’t generally receive the ball in a cutting situation unless they’re in a
position to score. Therefore, across the league, players average more points
per possession on cuts than they do in isolations or post ups. Here are the
average points per possession numbers league-wide from each offensive
possession type, according to mySynergySports. Again, I’m only looking at
structured half-court offense so I’ve left out transition opportunities and
offensive rebounds.

Cut – 1.18 PPP
PnR Screener – 0.97 PPP
Spot Up – 0.94 PPP
Off Screen – 0.87 PPP
Hand Off – 0.87 PPP
Post Up – 0.82 PPP
PnR Ball Handler – 0.78 PPP
Isolation – 0.78 PPP

There is a clear separation in efficiency between cuts, shots for the
screener in pick-and-rolls, spot ups, and everything else. However, creating
a more efficient offensive balance is not as easy as just running more cuts.
Each of those three possession types are created by some other action that
takes place with the ball. An offense can’t be built around those three
possession types, without some sort of initial set to create those
opportunities. Each team and coaching staff is looking at their personnel and
trying to find the most effective recipe for combining and creating these
different scoring opportunities.

Keeping this in mind we would expect to see a few similarities in good
offenses. Teams that score very efficiently generally tilt the balance
towards more effective scoring opportunities. They also score at an above
average rate on some of the possession types that are generally less
effective. The Spurs are a perfect example. Looking at just their offensive
outcomes which occurred at least 100 times this season, we are left with a
total of 3558 possessions. 1952 of those possessions, or 54.8% were used by
either cutters, spot up shooters or screeners in the pick and roll. Across
the entire league just 45.9% of offensive outcomes came from those three
possession types. The Spurs have found a way to significantly tilt that
offensive balance in their favor. They also have managed to be more efficient
than average with those less efficient opportunities. The Spurs had 7
different offensive outcomes that occurred at least 100 times that were on
the bottom half of that efficiency list (Gary Neal – PnR Ball Handler, Tony
Parker – PnR Ball Handler, Manu Ginobili – PnR Ball Handler, Tony Parker –
 Isolation, Tim Duncan – Post Up, Tiago Splitter – Post Up, DeJuan Blair –
 Post Up). Of those 7 different offensive outcomes, only three (Tim Duncan –
 Post Up, Tiago Splitter – Post Up, DeJuan Blair – Post Up) scored at a
rate below the league average for that possession type.

The Thunder are a team that found an offensive recipe completely different
from the Spurs. They don’t rely on an efficient balance, but instead on
individual excellence. Of their offensive outcomes that occurred at least 100
times, just 26.2% of their possessions were used on those three most
efficient opportunities. The Thunder put together the second best offense in
the league this season because they made the most of less efficient
possession types. 55.5% of the Thunder’s possessions were used in isolations
or as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll by Kevin Durant, James Harden,
and Russell Westbrook. Across the league these were some of the least
efficient offensive outcomes, but Durant, Harden and Westbrook were all well
above average in both possession types. Durant and Westbrook get most of the
attention, but Harden’s efficiency blew the other two away. On possession
types where the league average is just 0.78 points per possession, Harden
scored 1.07 in isolations and 1.04 in the pick-and-roll.

In these graphs we also see examples of teams struggling to find success both
because of an inefficient balance, and an inability to exploit specific
opportunities. The Hawks had some terrific offensive options at their
disposal this season. They had strong spot up shooting from Kirk Hinrich,
Willie Green, Joe Johnson, Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams. They also had two
strong ball handlers in the pick-and-roll in Johnson and Teague. The
performance of Teague was particularly impressive, averaging 0.93 points per
possession in the pick-and-roll, well above the league average. Unfortunately
29.7% of their possessions in our data set went to Josh Smith in either
isolations, spot-ups or post ups. Smith was an atrocious spot up shooter,
scoring just 0.81 points per possession, well below the league average of
0.94. He was right around average on post ups and isolations, but again,
nearly a third of the Hawks’ offensive possessions were being used on some
of their least efficient outcomes.

Then we come to the poor Kings. It certainly could have been worse overall,
they had the 21st most efficient offense this season, but at a micro level
things were really bad. Their problems ran deeper than balance and raised
some questions about the abilities and potential of the players they have on
their roster. First off they couldn’t shoot. Other than Isaiah Thomas and
Jimmer Fredette, every King who used at least 100 spot up possessions scored
at a below average rate. That covers six different players and the span goes
from Marcus Thornton and his 0.92 points per possession, all the way down to
Tyreke Evans and his 0.70 points per possession. Evans used at least 100
possessions in isolations, the pick-and-roll and as a spot-up shooter. He
scored significantly below average in all three. DeMarcus Cousins used at
least 100 possessions as a screener in pick-and-rolls, post ups, spot ups and
isolations. He was above average in the pick and roll, but significantly
below average in the other three. Finding a solution to the Kings’ woes may
involve more than just the passage of time and some minor tweaks.

I know that basketball analytics have generally had a hard time sussing out
the impact of coaching on team performance. All though we haven’t
specifically look at these numbers through a coaching lens, that’s the issue
we’re dancing around. Players ultimately make the decision whether to shoot
or pass, but the do so within a framework established by the coach. An
efficient offense doesn’t just require good players, it requires good
players to be used in the right ways.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 99.125.165.60
推 tth81222:推推  看的眼花撩亂....
→ wentasu:圖很精美 前幾年也有類似資料嗎?
推 iIvan:讚！ 其中有些指引可參考：西河的PnR後取分是對方用得最多但
→ iIvan:卻效率不彰的進攻方式...
推 iIvan:得分效率還比他自己call iso來打更低一些...XD
推 kasen15:這個之前hardwoodparoxysm.com也有寫過，不過只有部分球隊
→ Alfred:樓上，就是同一個作者寫的啊XD 他又有新的了，我一會貼上來
推 kasen15:原來如此XDDDDD 我只注意出處不一樣而以 哈哈哈