[情報] A.Jefferson交易案不可能發生

[ParkerWind (帕克瘋~)]

大家一直在討論 就翻了一下

順祝刺版大家新年快樂 馬刺總冠軍\(^▽^)/\(^▽^)/\(^▽^)/\(^▽^)/\(ˊ_>ˋ)/
                                                                     這隻是口愛

The Spurs will never trade for Al Jefferson
By J. Gomez (Edg5) on Feb 7, 2:02p 78 
外電網址: http://ppt.cc/K9SJ

At first glance, this seems like a good trade. But when fit and potential
cost come into the equation, going forward with it would be one of the least
Spurs-like moves ever.

這個交易看似不錯，但考量潛在的各項因子後，這不像是馬刺會走的棋。

Like many of you, I recently read a Chris Sheridan piece in which he asserted
the Spurs are the front-runners to trade for Al Jefferson. I think Sheridan
is a fine NBA scribe and I don't doubt he is well connected but this rumor
makes so little sense to me, I can't help but feel it was pedaled by an
interested party--either Jefferson's people or the Jazz's front office--to
increase interest in him. The Spurs carry a certain aura of respectability
and it would benefit Big Al and the Jazz if PATFO was interested in Utah's
big man.

我最近看了這篇文章 http://ppt.cc/Yai9 (Al Jefferson to Spurs?) 作者C.Sheridan
認為馬刺該交易A.Jefferson過來補強前場。Sheridan是專業的NBA評論家，我不是要質疑
他，但是我對這個乳模並不感興趣，我覺得這風聲是AJ的球迷和爵士的制服組放出來的，
為了增加AJ的行情。

There are a number of reasons to doubt this will ever happen, some more
subtle than others. But I'll start with the first thing that came to my mind:
after trying once without success, why would the Spurs trade for another
Jefferson that doesn't fit?

質疑這個交易的點有很多，但我第一個想到的是，我們上一個交易過來的Jefferson始終
沒辦法融入球隊，幹嘛重蹈覆轍呢?

Al Jefferson is a high-usage, medium efficiency player that thrives in
particular offensive sets and hasn't shown that he has the versatility to
adjust. He's a mediocre to bad defensive player that will need to somehow
improve by leaps and bounds to really make a difference. If that doesn't
sound a lot like the 2009 Richard Jefferson trade to you, you probably think
this potential acquisition would be awesome.

AJ是個高使用性、效率普通的球員，他得分能力好，但並不具有多樣性可供調整。他的防
守非常糟，離夠水準的防守有一大段距離。如果你沒有聯想到2009 RJ的交易，你可能還
會覺得這是筆大賺的交易吧。

RJ was far from an awful player during his stint with the Spurs, but he was
definitely not the piece to put San Antonio over the hump. He got the benefit
of the doubt early on because he had never been in an environment where he
could tap his full potential, especially on defense, and was considered
exactly the type of player the Spurs needed.

RJ到馬刺前一直都表現不差，但他明顯不是馬刺更進一步的拼圖，他來到了一個沒辦法發
揮潛能的地方，尤其是防守功能，他完全不符馬刺的需要。

If you read any articles giving a thumbs up to the potential Big Al trade,
you'll notice the similarities. Unfortunately, when players reach a certain
age and don't have the physical attributes needed to play above average
defense, I don't think there's any environment that can turn that around.
Types of players are different than actual players, too. Here's Sheridan on
last year's Spurs defense:

如果你有讀到一些贊成AJ交易案的文章，你會發現都寫得大同小異。不幸的是，當一個球
員到了中生代還沒有發展他的防守，我不認為有環境能讓他長期發揮。我們來看看
Sheridan對去年馬刺的防守怎麼說:

The inability to protect the rim was one of the prime reasons for their
collapse in last year's Western Conference finals when they had won 20 in a
row and had a 2-0 lead on the Thunder, only to lose the next four.

去年西區決賽，馬刺連贏兩場挾帶著20連勝卻被雷霆直落四逆轉的原因是:
馬刺沒有能力保護在籃框附近的防守。

Oversimplifications aside, Sheridan might have a point. The Spurs couldn't
contain the Thunder from getting to the basket as much as they would have
preferred but, and we've been over this, the Spurs' biggest problem was
hedging and recovering on pick and pops and their inability to match OKC's
small ball lineups on both ends of the floor. How the addition of the
plodding Al Jefferson would help is unclear. Is he going to guard Kevin
Durant when the Thunder go small? Is he going to punish OKC in the post even
when their guys leave their assigned men to bring help on him, like they did
with Parker? We are talking about a glacial defensive player who thrives on
post ups. That doesn't sound like the player the Spurs need to get past the
Thunder.

大大簡化之，Sheridan先生的意思是馬刺沒辦法阻止雷霆在籃下取分，馬刺最大的問題是
面對擋拆時的對衝和補防，且攻守兩端都跟不上雷霆的小球陣容。既然如此，補進了步伐
緩慢的AJ有什麼意義呢? 難道他可以守住Kevin Durant? 還是能像雷霆對付Parker一樣補
防切入者? AJ是個精於背框得分而防守糟糕的球員，我們找他來有加分嗎?

Before that part there's this:
So the time for the Jazz to move him is now, and the team with the biggest
need for an upgrade at center is the Spurs.

在這段之前他提到了:
所以現在正是爵士擺脫AJ的最佳時機，而最需要大個子的球隊正是馬刺。

Why? Are the Spurs in a bigger need of a center than the Heat, who start Bosh
at the 5, had a lot of trouble dealing with Roy Hibbert last post-season and
could realistically get the Sixers and Bynum in the first round, the Nets and
Brook Lopez in the second round and either the Knicks or the Pacers in the
conference finals? How about the Thunder, who play the underwhelming Kendrick
Perkins at the 5 and have Hasheem Thabeet backing him up? Last I checked the
Spurs had Duncan and Splitter at center and both rank high up at their
position and either better or very close to Jefferson by any advanced stats,
be it RAPM, PER or Wins Produced. There's also Blair and now Aron Baynes.
Anyone who has watched the Spurs knows that they aren't exactly lacking post
defense and pick and roll finishers. Despite perception to the contrary, the
Spurs do a great job of protecting the paint. They allow the 5th lowest field
goal percentage in the league on shots under eight feet. And Tim Duncan ranks
top ten in blocks per game and per 36 minutes.

為什麼啊?馬刺比熱火更需要中鋒? 熱火可是連Bosh都得扛到5號耶! 看他們上季季後賽對
付Roy Hibbert多麼費力，而他們今年可能會在第一輪遇到有Bynum坐鎮的七六人，第二輪
遇到有B.Lopez的籃網，東區決賽再遇到溜馬或尼克。那來看看雷霆，臭臉Perkins也要扛
到5號，然後替補是超級不成材的榜眼Thabeet。反觀馬刺有Duncan和Splitter互相支援，
換成AJ的話，光是帳面上的PER值http://ppt.cc/4RbZ 就不划算了，更何況馬刺板凳還有
Blair和阿榮。大家有在看馬刺的比賽就會知道，馬刺其實並不缺乏低位防守和擋拆戰術
執行者，儘管跟有些人的看法相左，馬刺的禁區防守是相當不錯的，對手在8呎內的命中
率是全聯盟第5低，而且Duncan的平均阻攻或是每36分鐘的阻攻數都是全聯盟前10。

I'm not saying Tiago Splitter is inherently better that Al Jefferson; he
isn't. What Jefferson brings (post offense, post defense, shot blocking) is
extremely valuable, but the Spurs already have it in Tim Duncan, and the way
the league is evolving towards a more perimeter-oriented game, they can
survive with a single post threat. The Spurs could use an upgrade down low
but what they need is someone like the Jazz's other big time F/C, Derrick
Favors, who can cover a lot of ground on pick and rolls and block shots from
the weak side. Someone who is flat-footed and could very well be one of the
worst starting centers at defending the pick and roll wouldn't help the
Spurs, regardless of how big an upgrade he might be in generating his own
offense.

我是不認為Splitter好過AJ，AJ有它的價值，但馬刺已經有Duncan了，而且聯盟有得分往
外圍擴散的趨勢，所以禁區問題也許沒有想像的大。馬刺還是可以升級他們的禁區，但我
覺得爵士的另一位禁區球員Derrick Favors更適合，他在攻守擋拆都很傑出，在弱邊的補
防阻攻也很了得。一個腳步緩慢且可能是守擋拆能力最差的中鋒是沒辦法幫助馬刺的，就
算他的進攻能力再好也一樣。

And that's the thick of it: during a season where the Spurs seem to have
focused on defense, bringing in Al Jefferson would represent a move in the
wrong direction. The Spurs' pick and roll defense is far from elite but
bringing in Al would mean surrendering to the fact that the Spurs will never
be good at a play that more and more teams are making the linchpin of their
offense. The reason people don't consider it crazy to think a 20 and 10 guy
like Jefferson might be available in exchange for a solid center in his
prime, an aging wing and a replacement level back up point is because the
best teams in the league are built to exploit the weaknesses plodding post
centers have. This type of move would likely make front offices in LA and OKC
happy.

可以下個結論: 馬刺本季已經有專注在防守上的改善，找來AJ無疑是緣木求魚。馬刺守擋
拆不算太好但是找來AJ意味著將要完全放棄這一塊，對手將會更加予取予求。大家不要被
AJ場均20-10的優異成績以及出色的禁區得分能力給蒙蔽了，他緩慢的腳步比較適合去湖
人或雷霆吧!

It's possible that Jefferson could become a good pick and roll player on
offense and an average one on defense. He could give the Spurs another
offensive weapon with his excellent post offense. The range on his jumper
couldn't hurt. But, not unlike what they did with Richard Jefferson, the
Spurs would be gambling on Al changing pretty much everything that has made
him a successful NBA player and expecting him to improve defensively even
though his track record and physical limitations suggest that might be
impossible.

AJ要能出色的執行擋拆並練出不錯的防守是有可能的。他可以讓馬刺擁有一個禁區得分武
器，他投籃的射程也不算差。但你不能保證他不會跟上一個Jefferson一樣。馬刺交易AJ
是個賭博，你要期待他的防守大躍進，但從過去的紀錄和他的體能條件來看是不可能的。

I don't overrate Patty Mills and Stephen Jackson. They are fan favorites
because of their personality but I do believe their production is eminently
replaceable. I don't think Tiago Splitter will become anything more than a
good starting center while Jefferson can be a number one option on a good
team. At first glance, this seems like a good trade. But when fit and
potential cost come into the equation, going forward with it would be one of
the least Spurs-like moves ever. No one is perfect, not even PATFO. But I'd
like to think they learned from the RJ fiasco. That's why I believe that
there's no way they trade for another niche offensive player that will have
to be re-signed to an onerous contract. Especially not one who figures to be
a drain on defense.

我沒有對Mills和船長過譽，他們的個性讓球迷喜愛，但我認為他們的功能是絕對可以被
取代的。我不認為Splitter可以成為比AJ更優秀的中鋒，但就像我之前說過的，這個交易
看似不錯，實質上是不好的，沒有人是完美的，包括POPO與他的制服組們，但我想他們有
在RJ的失敗案例學到了些什麼，這也是我相信這個交易不會發生的原因，你將交易來一個
進攻型球員，並即將要跟他續簽複年約，更何況守能力是數據無法反映的。

But then again, maybe there's just something about them Jeffersons...

但話又說回來，也許錯就錯在他也叫Jefferson吧XD


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◆ From: 111.253.237.189
推 kasen15:推推，贊成作者的觀點
推 spurs20927:精闢推！！！
推 a88019:別這樣，我還是很喜歡R. Jefferson...ㄒ^ㄒ
推 kimisky:推推! 翻譯辛苦了!
推 joumay:被拿來當墊腳的... 馬刺也習慣了吧.............
推 enorm:補充一下：20 in a row 那段是說連勝 20 場不是領先 20 分~
   謝謝提醒  去年輸給雷霆三哨我難過到都忘記我們的20連勝了
推 AquariusTACO:推推 最後一句XD
推 jyekid:還拖RJ出來....
推 mindd:真好 Favors 換 剔牙哥耶  成交!!
→ cominlin:飛天剔牙哥<->Favors 馬刺小虧(大誤)
※ 編輯: ParkerWind      來自: 111.253.247.141      (02/10 19:38)
推 GAPB:那可能有Favors 有的話 阿榮剔牙首相坡妞 自由任選:~
→ spurs2120:人家好歹也是探花耶 XDDD
推 hydeless:不愧是刺爵友好，球迷都只想搶劫對方。XDDDDD