[情報] 馬刺開季分析 by SpursTalk(Bruno)

[ParkerWind (帕克風~)]

馬刺開季前10場分析
By Bruno, SpursTalk

http://ppt.cc/yFYz

9-1 is great. While it's true Spurs have faced low level opponents, 9-1 with
6 games on the road and with these 10 games played in only 17 days, can only
be seen as a very good start of the season. Some thoughts on some more
specific aspects:

9-1的戰績相當理想，儘管對手都不算太強，但這10場是在17天內打完，其中有6場是客場
算是一個非常棒的開季，以下針對數個方面分析:

Duncan and Ginobili:
That's the true bad news of these first 10 games. With a respective PER of
15.4 and 14.9, both Tim and Manu have looked bad this year and given their
ages that's worrisome.
For Tim, the drop off is made even more noticeable by how great he was last
season. When you compare at last season, his points scored by minutes have
dropped by 28.2% with a FG% going from .502 to .394. It's isn't only a
shooting slump since his rebounding per minute has also dropped by 23.5%.
For Manu, the drop is smaller since he wasn't that good last season but it
doesn't change that he is right now only an average player. The idea that
this season could be some kind of rebound year for him is way off for the
moment.
I have a hard time being optimistic for their future. Maybe, the best reason
to be hopeful that they will get significantly better would surprisingly come
from a De Colo interview. In that interview, Nando said Spurs have changed
their physical training staff/method with the idea of being even more in
shape for the playoffs. The hope would be that they get better physically for
the playoffs which would have a big positive impact on their playing level.

Duncan和Ginobili雙老:
這10場比賽雙老的PER分別只有15.4和14.9，這絕對是值得擔憂的。
Duncan上季的回春，對照目前的表現有很大的落差，同樣的上場時間得分下滑28.2%
籃板下降23.5% FG從50.2%掉到39.4% 
Manu因為上季狀況就不好，所以差異不大，但他目前的表現看來這季也不至於回春了。
DeColo先前接受採訪時提到馬刺有做了些體能訓練的調整，讓球員們以最佳狀態進入
季後賽，我也只能這樣期待了，期待他們在季後賽會有更好的表現。

Spurs overall defense:
While Spurs defense hasn't really faced a lot of offensive juggernauts, it
has been great especially given that they usually start the season slow on
that end of the court. Right now with only 91.6 points allowed by 100
possession, Spurs are the second best defensive team in the league behind
Indiana. This good defense is done the typical Spurs way by focusing on the
easy shots: Spurs are defending the rim well, are great at stopping fast
breaks and are allowing very few free throws. The only area that Spurs should
improve is defending corner 3's. Spurs are 21st in corner 3's allowed by game
and 25th in FG% allowed for these shots with a ridiculous 47.3%.

防守:
馬刺還沒有碰上進攻強隊，目前對手100次進攻只能得到91.6分，這在全聯盟只輸給溜馬
馬刺在籃下的防守做得很好，也很擅長阻止對手快攻，甚至也很少讓對手罰球。
目前防守端最大的弱點是底線三分，對手可以在這個位子擁有47.3%的高命中率。

Spurs overall offense:
Spurs are average offensively. They have the 11th offensive rating at 102.7.
Identifying the key issue isn't that complicate: Spurs are bad offensively
when Duncan is on the court. They have a 99.9 offensive rating when he is on
the court and a 105.1 rating when he is on the bench. In 2012-2013, it was
107.6 with him and 104.2 without him.
To improve their offense, Duncan must improve or Spurs must use him less
offensively. With his pedigree, it isn't debatable for the moment and Spurs
must stick with Tim as a key part of their offense but if his struggles
continue in a couple of months, it might become a legit option to feed him
less.

進攻:
馬刺的得分能力強，offensive rating 有102.7；但當Duncan在場上時只剩下99.9
在板凳時卻有105.1。這值得關注，因為上一季這兩個數字分別是107.6/104.2。
若要加強進攻，Duncan勢必要調整好狀態，或是馬刺要式微他在進攻端的腳色，
這很殘忍，但是事實。

Spurs defensive rebounding:
Spurs have been these past years an elite defensive rebounding team and they
are having an even better start than usual this year.
The improvement doesn't really come from the PF/C rotation but from the SG/SF
rotation. The 4 main wing (Leonard, Green, Ginobili and Belinelli) are
averaging more than 5 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes.
Spurs compensate the lack of an elite defensive rebounder by a team effort.

防守籃板:
馬刺這幾年在防守籃板方面做得很好，今年開季似乎又做得更好了。
差別不是在前場，反而是鋒線搖擺人，包括Leonard, Green, Ginobili和Belinelli
4個人平均36分鐘的籃板數都超過5，馬刺沒有一個優秀的籃板鞏固手，取而代之的是團隊
的努力。

The Duncan/Splitter pair:
One of the reason of Spurs surge last season was the Splitter/Duncan pairing.
They even were the best defensive pair in the NBA. This year it isn't at all
the case:
+/- stats for the main Spurs bigmen pair:
Duncan/Splitter: -13 in 98 minutes
Duncan/Diaw: +48 in 94 minutes
Splitter/Diaw: +35 in 70 minutes
Duncan getting better might put back the Duncan/Splitter back on track but if
it doesn't happen, it should have consequences on what Spurs should do at the
trade deadline. Without the ability to pair Tim and Tiago adding a quality PF
becomes an even bigger priority.

Duncan+Splitter:
上一季馬刺能拚到總冠軍賽有個很大的原因就是這組前場搭配，他們甚至是全聯盟防守
最強的前場陣容。但今年看來明顯不是這樣了.....
本季+/-:
Duncan+Splitter:-13(98分鐘)
Duncan+Diaw:+48(94分鐘)
Splitter+Diaw:+35(70分鐘)
如果Duncan不能調整好狀況，馬刺在交易截止日前可能得有些動作，想辦法加進一個
大前鋒進入主要輪替陣容。

Patty Ginobili:
Last season, there were a stat that was in favor of Mills getting the backup
PG spot: his insanely good pairing with Ginobili. They were at +22.7 points
per 100 possessions and by far Spurs better pair.
This season proves so far that it wasn't just a statistical fluke. They are
right now at +27 points per 100 poss. .
Add to that, Mills great offensive input and some good defensive numbers and
it looks like Spurs have found a high quality backup PG for this season.

Mills+Ginobili:
上季，Mills做為替補PG和Manu搭配時，每100次球權可以比對手多得22.7分，這不是錯覺
因為本季這個數字更達到27。除此之外，從Mills優秀的得分能力和不錯的防守數據看來，
馬刺已經找到一個合格的替補PG了。

Boris 2.0:
A lot has been said about Diaw increase aggressiveness. A little stat to back
it up:
Field goals attempted by Boris per 36 minutes with Spurs:
2012: 6.0
2012-2013: 7.0
2013-2014: 12.7
Regarding the reason of that change, I don't buy the contract year effect
even said by Pop. I believe Diaw when he said that it is because he thoughts
he could have bring more to Spurs last season in the playoffs and that it is
what he wants to do this year with them.

Diaw進化:
Diaw打得更有侵略性了，看看他來到馬刺後的數據(每36分鐘出手數):
2012:6.0
2012-2013:7.0
2013-2014:12.7
儘管POPO說他是因為合約年而努力，我寧願相信他是為了彌補上季季後賽的缺憾，而想要
在這季好好表現。

Belinelli versus Neal:
Neal (and Blair, but that's another subject), being an empty stats player
that didn't make the team better was reflected in his on/off court stats.
During his career with Spurs to offense wasn't really better while he was on
the court while the defense was significantly worse.
Belinelli seems to be a way superior team player. That's what the naked eye
said and stats confirmed it. His +/- is right now at +10.1 points per 100
possession while Neal was at +4.2 points with Spurs.

Belinelli和Neal的差別:
Neal在場上其實對球隊助益不大(還有Blair，但那是另外一個故事)，有他在場球隊
的得分能力沒有變強，反倒是防守變弱了。
Belinelli更適合當團隊球員，這是我的眼睛和數據告訴我的，當他在場上球隊每100次
進攻可多得10.1分，反觀Neal只有4.2。

Aron Baynes:
It's a little anecdotal but while I was looking at Spurs stats to do that
post, I was amazed by how horrible Baynes stats were. He has a -5.6 PER and a
-38 +/-. It isn't a surprise why Ayres is above him in the rotation even if
he has shown close to nothing on the court.

Baynes:
觀察Baynes的數據時讓我嚇了一跳，-5.6的PER和-38的+/-值，難怪他的輪替順位會在
Ayres之後，儘管後者在場上也幾乎沒什麼貢獻。


--
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◆ From: 123.240.205.154
※ 編輯: ParkerWind      來自: 123.240.205.154      (11/17 14:39)
推 ghghfftjack:叮噹肯休賽季發生什麼事了T_T
→ spurs2120:還好吧，37歲本來就會衰退，看看隔壁KG
→ silverwolf:應該只是還在調整吧..。期望越接近季後賽，狀況可以調
→ silverwolf:整回來
→ jiuan1027:三巨頭大概就這樣了 K.Leonard能成長多少比較重要
推 TimManu:本季目前為止最大驚奇:毛金哥
推 hichung:對阿爵籃板都被搶爆 不過這問題不是第一次在喊了
→ spurs2120:我覺得屌爺更驚奇哈哈
推 benit17:Baynes熱身賽跟季賽感覺完全不同人
推 aquanight:毛巾屌!!! 開季大驚奇
推 abc1231qa:回一樓....離婚?
推 pttdue:TD現在應該在把妹 季後賽再認真就好
推 sandiato:Pop：差不多該想DNP的理由了。
推 hogar:看了幾場比賽 整體狀態真的不算好 TD表現下滑 Manu也回不去
→ hogar:了
推 hogar:這兩個點不是隨便可以頂上的 還好diaw太出色了 彌補了一點
推 jeff007:http://i.imgur.com/RNaNjVa.jpg 就連Kawhi也...
→ jeff007:有沒有人可以分析一下 Kawhi這季在幹麻？
推 zbmrd:感覺TD這季中距離很不穩是得分下降的一大原因
→ zbmrd:馬刺戰術一直很依靠他跟後衛的擋拆後製造中距離出手
推 ando:Manu早就回不去了 現在才看清? TD的問題就是這樣 看來還是繼
→ ando:續燃燒TP的方式繼續使用而已
推 mindd:MANU真的要壓低他的上場時間   不想再看到賭博三分了
推 keroromoa:我們的後場好像提升了，可是前場好像下滑了
→ keroromoa:總覺得這樣的禁區好像沒比熱火好多少？
推 hogar:可愛的單打比重有增加 但運球不太行 擺脫不了防守 命中率就
推 hogar:相信會越來越好 希望能練成跟溜馬PG一樣阿
推 MummyMonster:推一個
推 canonring151:PG去年也是持球變多數據變好 但失誤命中率並不好
→ canonring151:希望能在戰績不錯情況下多給可愛球權跟犯錯的機會...
推 hydeless:Manu可以給馬刺最大的幫助就是退休或是簽底薪讓我們可以
→ hydeless:補一支千萬級的搖擺人，看看Iggy對勇士的幫助有多大
→ dean87014:manu的三分連空檔也抖抖的....
推 fd263fd263:這樣看下來雖然戰績依舊亮眼可是實際都退步了...
推 hydeless:Manu的防守才是退步最多的，現在根本旋轉門。
→ hydeless:TD其實不用急，他只是跳投手感找不回來而已，現在的TD很
→ hydeless:吃中距離手感的，外線噴不進就很多招不能用了
推 ljm71:請問有甚麼數據能作為各隊禁區強弱的判斷呢?
推 ando:簽底薪寧願退休更好吧 不只他本人不會同意 廣大球迷也是
推 pttdue:他與生俱來的好勝心不能接受 讓人又愛又恨吶
推 jack7614614:長江後浪推前浪 三巨頭總有一天會退休希望可愛早點成
→ jack7614614:為台柱
推 TimDuncan21:Iggy的價值真的很可怕!不過還是想看到三巨頭再多打幾
→ TimDuncan21:年!屌爺跟毛巾的升級絕對是現在戰績好的重要原因!
→ TimDuncan21:比較讓人失望的大概就是Jeff了吧 波波現在也不太敢用