Re: [新聞] FXO.Boss對韓國SC2電競的預言

[nekoares (絶望した！)]

看了很想翻，就翻了。大家兩相對照一下吧。
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A brief look at Korea 2013
簡短評論 2013 的韓國 (電競)

http://fxoboss.tumblr.com/post/39525316090/a-brief-look-at-korea-2013


各位新年快樂。
2013 對我來說將是刺激的一年，我希望對電競圈裡的每個人也都是。

一直以來我都在記錄在韓國觀察到的一些現象，現在我想根據這些來分析、
並預測未來韓國的星海2。

在我開始之前，我想先跟 "Evil Geniuses" 的 Mr. Alex Garfield打聲招呼。
他很可能跟我做了類似的分析，因此作出了正確的決斷。


Greetings, and happy new year everyone.

2013 is going to be an exciting one for me, and I hope it is the same for
everyone in e-sports.

I have been taking notes on some patterns I am seeing in Korea at the moment,
and am now looking to analyse and potentially predict the future of Korean
SC2.

Before I start, I want to give a shout out to Mr Alex Garfield, from Evil
Geniuses. He probably has done a similar analysis and has made moves to
position him self correctly.


以下是我的見解。

隨著EG-TL參戰proleague (我從沒有看過保守得這樣差的SC2秘密，這都得感謝
我們偉大的JYP選手以及韓國的八卦網路)，我們看到了第一個「外國人」(我想
在外面加上滿滿一圈的"們")的戰隊出現在proleague 的舞台上。

加入了proleague 代表了：
1) 你有一整年的行程被卡住
2) 獎金絕對足以支付整個戰隊在韓國一整年的開銷，扣除掉薪資不算

現在打的是星海2，所以我不想拿去跟BW全盛期做比較，不過這個分析讓 GSTL/
GSL看起來像個廉價的線上賽一樣。

這些現象告訴我，這是proleague撼動GSL的一擊，而且非常致命。


I will now explain my point of view.

With EG-TL joining proleague (which was the worst kept secret I have ever
seen in sc2 thanks to the ever so Awesome JYP and the korean gossip mill) we
saw the first “FOREIGN” (I want to put many “‘s around that word) team in
proleague.

The thing about this proleague is 1) You are locked in for 1 year, and 2) the
prize money is more than enough to fund an entire team in Korea for 12 months
without salary (paying all expenses).

This is starcraft 2, so I am not going to compare it to brood war during its
hayday, but it kinda makes the GSTL and GSL look like playhem weeklies from
an analytical point of view.

What I see this is, is a power push by proleague to shake out GSL. And its a
damn good one.


GomTV從來不公開發表他的線上視聽人數以及現場觀眾數。當被問到這些數字時
他們也拒絕私底下給出數據。這讓ESF戰隊很難去招到贊助。大多數的 OGN 轉播
數據都是完全公開而且準確。這大大幫助了戰隊吸引廠商，也讓 KeSPA 的戰隊
在起跑點就贏了ESF戰隊。

把隊伍整整綁住一年，並擁有這樣的規模的轉播視聽數，這會讓粉絲轉投KeSPA的
懷抱。說實話，就算是在電競會場或是大型網咖裡辦出來的結果，扣除掉英文轉播
不算也並不輸給GomTV。而轉播員最近已經不如大家所想的吸引力，收看人數已經
不像過去那樣受到播報員的影響。觀眾開始更注重選手，這又是另一個話題了。


GOMTV has never formally released its numbers for subscriptions and public
viewership, when requested for these numbers, they have outright refused to
give them out privately, which handicaps the ESF teams with obtaining
sponsorship. Most of the OGN online broadcast numbers are blatantly public,
and correctly so. This helps with luring potential investment, and
automatically puts the KESPA teams 1 step ahead of the ESF teams.

Locking in the teams for 1 year and having the number of broadcasts as it is,
will allow the fans to migrate to the KESPA teams. Lets face it, the
production, even though it would be in a “e-stadium” or “giant lan cafe”
 is still close to the GOMTV production minus the english casters. Casters
recently, do not have as much pull as people think, the numbers do not vary
dramatically from caster to caster like they used to. People are more
attached to players, but this is another story.


回頭看 KeSPA 經營比賽的內容，獎金一直是最重要的一環。

ESF 如果在2013年底還能夠保有四支戰隊的話就該感謝上蒼了。為什麼？

首先，對於經營者來說，要行銷一個ESF 韓國戰隊非常困難，因為他們打的比賽
完全不給你數據去吸引贊助廠商。弄出一個假設的數字、然後還要跟企業去解釋
為什麼主辦單位不把統計數字給參賽者是一件很難堪的事。


Looking past the production of the KESPA run tournament, the prize money is
the most important part.

ESF will be lucky to have 4 teams remaining in its organisation by the end of
2013. Why?

Well, for starters its damn hard to sell an ESF korean team, because the
event they play in does not allow you to use the numbers to lure sponsors.
You have to run on assumed numbers, and explaining why the numbers are not
made public to the participants to a corporate person is pretty embarressing.


來自像 Azubu、EG、TL 這些戰隊的資金，將會隨著時間把 ESF戰隊的王牌選
手通通吸收過來。你不需要砸大錢就可以買到韓職的王牌選手，而韓職選手對
戰隊的情感，其實就是你出了夠好的價錢，就可以輕易的讓他們離開老東家。

我敢說Parting的情況就是這樣，不過我並不實際知道內情，所以請不要引用我的話。


Investor capital from teams like Azubu, EG, TL etc. will take the majority of
ace players from the ESF teams over time. It does not cost much to buy a
Korean ace, and the dramatic, emotional mentality of the korean pro gamers
basically means if you give them a good offer, they will get so emotional
about it that the current team has lost them forever.

I dare say this is the case with parting, but I dont know the story. So don’
t quote me on it.


當王牌選手離開，這通常會讓一切垮台(現在的電競環境對有才能的選手來說
充滿了希望，但是對外國戰隊的財務狀況卻不是。我想這應該用不著我解釋)，
只留下垂死掙扎的戰隊，從零開始社群行銷你剩下的選手，直到他們再度離開你。

到最後，ESF戰隊很可能會僅剩殘存的選手在死撐。


As the aces move on, and most likely crash and burn (the current environment
is a breeding ground for talent, the money environment in foreign teams is
not. I do not really need to explain my opinion on this) you are left with
struggling teams who have to re-do social media and re-advertise their
players only to lose them again.

So in the end the ESF teams will most probably remain struggling for the
remainder of the existance of ESF.


再回來說獎金。GSL那悲慘的獎金是最讓人詬病的一點。人氣選手除非必要幾乎
不準備戰隊賽已經不是秘密了。說到世界頂尖的戰隊大家一定會想到IM，但是
他們GSTL的的成績卻糟糕透頂。這很容易讓人猜測他們因為獎金的緣故而不認真
的去準備比賽。這雖然沒有實證，但也不算太誇張的猜測。

Proleague的選手非常習慣這個環境。比賽的內容有的頂尖，有的卻糟糕透頂。
但是這個混合反而讓比賽更有趣。地圖小組發出的新地圖讓遊戲有所更動，也
為比賽帶來了新意，而比賽的獎金額也值得選手投資時間。只能放棄了，Proleague
勝利。


Again back to the prize money, GSL’s pitiful team league prize pool is a
huge reason to look at it and go meh. Its no secret that a large number of
the ‘fan favourite’ players do not prepare for the team league if it is not
a super important match. The public will notably mention IM as the best team
in the world, but they have had some miserable GSTL competitions, and its
easy to assume that they do not take it as seriously due to the money aspect,
this is heresay, but its safe to assume.

Proleague players live and breath proleague, the games have been a mixture of
awesome games, and disgustingly low quality games, but there is a mixture,
which keeps it interesting. The new maps from the map team have changed the
game slightly which makes it fresh and new, and the prize money is big enough
to make it worth while for any time participating. Proleague wins, hands
down.


GSL-KeSPA選手禁止交易協議很快就會結束，到時候我敢說KeSPA一定會攢到足夠
的錢來把重要選手都買走，結束這一切。

GOM 可以做什麼？支持他的戰隊會是個好開始，但是我看不出來改變的徵兆。

找到更多資金來增加獎金也是一種辦法，但是這樣他們就得跟像Team8這樣的
KeSPA戰隊搶贊助。

讓我跟不太熟悉南韓的人解釋一下。南韓被大財團所盤據，幾乎所有的大企業都
被綁在更大的母公司旗下。而KeSPA擁有大部分的財團或是他們的旗下企業贊助。
所以想找到一個韓國大企業來贊助GSL幾乎不可能。因此GSL必須要把手伸向海外，
但是在學校禮堂或是什麼體育館裡面辦比賽是不可能招得到國外贊助的。GOM因此
陷入了困境。而當選手需求更高的收入，ESF面對來自外國戰隊和Proleague的資
金勢必束手無策。


The GSL-KESPA player trading block will end soon enough, and I dare say the
KESPA organisations will gather up enough capital to buy anyone that matters
to finish off the shake off.

What can GOM do? Well, properly support its teams would be a good start. But
I don’t see that happening.

Gather further capital to increase production and prize money. This is
possible, but they are now competing in korea with the KESPA org for
sponsorships (team 8 for instance).

For those who dont know, south korea is pretty much owned by a bunch of
conglomerates. All the major companies are tied to a giant mother company in
some way, and the KESPA teams have most of them as sponsors or a part of them
as sponsors. So getting a huge company to sponsor GSL from Korea is going to
be almost impossible.  GSL then needs to some how appeal to a foreign major.
Which doing a production in a school hall (or gym or something) won’t
achieve. So GOM is essentially stuck in this rut.
As players become more desperate for money, and money coming from either
foreign teams, or proleague, I don’t know how ESF can last.


我如果是Gretech我會怎麼作？

我會把 GSL 賣給KeSPA，讓ESF和KeSPA合併。選手當然不喜歡KeSPA，但是這也
是為了他們的生存和利益。


What would I do if I was Gretech?

Sell GSL to KESPA and merge ESF and KESPA. The players don’t like KESPA
sure, but its all about survival and money for them in the end.


* 我今天寫的非常雜亂，因為我一邊寫這個一邊在整理我媽的壁櫥，他老愛把
一些過期的東西堆在裡面。

** 我已經不再經營 FXOpen 電競，所以這些看法都跟FXOpen的意見和方針無關。


*My writing is extra rusty today, and I was writing this whilst cleaning my
mothers pantry as she likes to keep things that are out of date*

*I no longer am affiliated with the FXOpen e-Sports organisation, so this
viewpoint does not reflect the organisations opinion or direction*

<3 BoSs

You can follow me on twitter http://www.twitter.com/gosutrading


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悲劇啊… 真是悲劇啊…

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