推 lionsoul:好長的牢騷 09/29 23:00
推 ziii:好文 該M起來 :) 09/29 23:49
推 richdiet:M 一下 09/30 08:23
推 gilligan:推 10/01 23:19
次級房貸外加一堆外務，
讓號稱「周大濕(被颱風淋濕了...)」的本人，
沉潛好久了.....
投資不成，只好寫寫評論，舒發不滿啦！
因此借班版來發發牢騷！哈哈！
---------正文休兵，牢騷崛起---------
次貸風暴，大政府重出江湖！
美國次貸所引起的信用危機，讓全美籠罩在景氣一片蕭條之中，自由競爭市場向來是美國
最自傲和授權世界矚目之處，而今美國政府卻必須砸下全國納稅人繳納的錢來挽救這場次
貸風暴，任期不到一年任期的布希總統，保守且堅信自由市場的他，竟然同意國務院提出
的7000億美元，然而，7000億這個天文數字的緊急紓困方案，是否符合布希總統在其2009
年預算書中所號稱的「Spends taxpayer dollars wisely(明智的花費納稅錢)」 (1.) ？
恐怕還在未定之天！同樣，國會面對布希總統高達7000億美元的緊急援助基金計畫，自由
經濟派的議員實在很難投下贊成票，而偏左派議員則高聲希望計畫通過！從美國財政部
(Treasury)到美國聯準會都忙得人仰馬翻，希望能遏止更大的風暴發生！
今年三月間，美國第五大投資銀行Bear Stearns不堪次貸虧損而宣布倒閉，聯準會(Fed)
於3月時融資290億美元幫助JP Morgan Chase收購Bear Stearns (2.) ，創下半世紀來Fed
的先例：打破僅放款給存款有政府保險的銀行之原則，將納稅人的錢放款給投資銀行 ，
表示著向來保持對市場「不干預主義」的美國聯準會此一官方組織，正式介入美國金融市
場。
而隨著Bear Stearns的宣布倒閉，愈來愈多投資房地產資金的投資銀行也接連發生危機，
09月07日，美國政府宣布接管瀕臨倒閉的Fannie Mae和Freddie Mac此二家次級房貸公司
，政府將持有二公司高達七成之股權！美國國會預測：政府接管二家房貸公司後，財政赤
字可能進一步攀升，預測美國政府財政赤字去年創下5年最低水平後，今年將上升到4070
億美元，2009年可能達到4380億美元。 (3.) 緊接著自1860年成立的美國第四大投資銀行
Lehman Brothers在09月16日因為聯準會和其他銀行都不願金援之而宣布倒閉，面臨被資
產清算的窘境，隨之而來的是全球最大的保險公司American International Group
Inc.(AIG) 也因投入房屋保險等業務而面臨龐大資金缺口！聯邦政府預計投入850億美元
救助貸款方案來援助AIG，雖然AIG目前尚未同意此項援助(4.) ，並且嘗試與其他民間資
金調度(例如市場盛傳巴非特將收購之(5.) )，但再次讓政府之手代替看不見之手進入市
場運作！
9月19日，美國白宮當局推出高達7000億美元的Radical bailout plan，希望止住這一波
波不斷擴大的次待金融風暴，然而該案在國會遲遲無法獲得同意，有議員甚至認為這討方
案是行政部門的「強迫推銷(Hard Sell)」 (6.) ，過程進展相當不順利，經過行政部門
的不斷遊說，好不容易在美東時間9月28日協商出方案之最後文字稿，然而附加很多條件
限制行政部門 (6.) ，美東時間9月29日將進行投票表決 (7.) ，全球都在看著美國國會
的決定，而這個決定是否將意味：大政府時代捲土重來？
將焦點拉到歐洲：比荷盧聯盟 (Benelux)政府決定花費112億歐元紓困總部位於荷蘭的
Belgian-Dutch group Fortis銀行(歐洲前20大銀行)，而將之國有化；而倡導首先推行小
政府觀念的英國政府也於9月29日宣布接管其國內的Bradford & Bingley銀行，彷彿次貸
風暴整個市場都無能為力，僅能靠政府的手介入了！
自由經濟市場到底發生了什麼問題？導致風暴一起就如此不可自我收拾！資訊不對稱恐怕
是最大問題！現今的各類衍生性金融商品(derivatives)多不勝數，資金流動速度高且複
雜，牽涉的關係密且廣，一件單純的房貸可以轉換成股票、各式期貨卷，再由各基金投資
買入，一環扣著一環，一家如果出了問題全盤皆倒！且缺乏控管的機制，投機性的買入殺
出以及不理性的追高，再加上蓄意掩蓋內部實際資訊，產生如此嚴重結果！
1980年代不斷強調小而美的政府，要求政府開銷降低、減稅，導致市場資金過多，投機性
資金大為勃發！然而政府卻因預算之不足又沒有足夠收入，完全無法面對龐大的衍生性金
融商品的流竄，很多資訊和必要的檢查都趕不上金融的快速發展，而今終於紙包不住火！
當意外發生後，所有人的目光轉到政府，政府只好打腫臉衝胖子，砸下錢來彌補全球投機
者的爛攤！
(1.)
請參見：Budget of the United States Government: Browse Fiscal Year 2009,
"OVERVIEW OF THE PRESIDENT'S 2009 BUDGET"
網址： http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy09/pdf/budget/overview.pdf (2008年9
月28日最後瀏覽)
(2.)
參見：路透社(Reuters)相關報導 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
"Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 17, 2008.
U.S. stocks fell after JPMorgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Stearns at a bargain
price and the Federal Reserve provided emergency cash to Wall Street as the
global credit crisis worsened. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid (UNITED STATES)"
網址： http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/searchpopup?picId=3554206
(3.)
參見：鉅亨網 (2008年9月11日最後瀏覽)
網址：
http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?rno=1&fi=%5CNEWSBASE%5C20080912%5CWEB567&vi=32441&sdt=20070913&edt=20080912&top=50&date=20080912&time=09:58:55&cls=consult_prop
(4.)
參見：華爾街日報 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
網址： http://chinese.wsj.com/big5/20080923/BUS006497.asp?source=channel
(5.)
參見：鉅亨網 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
網址：
http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?rno=1&fi=%5CNEWSBASE%5CFNT%5C20080925%5CFNT397&vi=42228&sdt=20080923&edt=20080925&top=50&date=20080925&time=20:46:24&cls=index15_totalnews
(6.)
參見： 紐約時報之一系列報導 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
Bailout Plan Talks Advance in Congress
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN
Discussions with the Bush administration have addressed measures such as
increased oversight and aid for homeowners at risk of foreclosure......
(Tuesday, September 23, 2008; Compiled 2 AM E.T. )
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/23cong.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
Bailout Plan a Hard Sell on Capitol Hill
By MARK LANDLER and STEVEN LEE MYERS
The Federal Reserve chairman and the Treasury secretary got a skeptical
reception to their calls to enact the financial rescue plan quickly......
(Tuesday, September 23, 2008; Compiled 4 PM E.T. )
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/economy/24fannie.html?8au&emc=au
Talks Implode During Day of Chaos; Fate of Bailout Plan Remains Unresolved
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN, CARL HULSE and SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
Partisan presidential politics seemed to trample what had been exceedingly
delicate Congressional negotiations over the $700 billion bailout
package......
(Friday, September 26, 2008; Compiled 2 AM E.T. )
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/26/business/26bailout.html?th&emc=th
Breakthrough Reached in Negotiations on Bailout
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN and CARL HULSE
Officials said Congressional staff members would work to finalize the
language of an agreement that would include pay limits for executives and
require the government to do more to prevent foreclosures.......
(Sunday, September 28, 2008; Compiled 2 AM E.T. )
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28bailout.html?th&emc=th
(7.)
參見： 路透社(Reuters)相關報導 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
Bailout vote nears as crisis hits Europe banks
Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:44am EDT
By Richard Cowan and Patrick Rucker
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers prepared to vote on Monday on a $700
billion government fund to buy bad debt as the global financial crisis kept
markets on tenterhooks by forcing European authorities to rescue troubled
banks.
As investors around the world hung on every twist and turn in Washington,
Belgian-Dutch group Fortis was nationalized and British mortgage lender
Bradford & Bingley faced the same fate.
Fortis is the first major European bank to buckle under the financial turmoil
triggered in August last year by U.S. mortgage defaults, and an early relief
rally in markets at news of progress in Washington soon fizzled out......
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE48S00W20080929
(8.)
參見： 路透社(Reuters)相關報導 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
Benelux governments rescue Fortis; ING to buy ABN
Mon Sep 29, 2008 3:17am EDT
By Antonia Van De Velde and Marcin Grajewski
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Benelux governments nationalized parts of banking and
insurance group Fortis in a bid to prevent U.S.-style financial contagion
engulfing one of Europe's top 20 banks.
After emergency talks with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude
Trichet The Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments agreed to inject 11.2
billion euros ($16.4 billion) into the financial group.
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE48Q2X320080929
(9.)
參見： 路透社(Reuters)相關報導 (2008年9月28日最後瀏覽)
HIGHLIGHTS-Britain nationalises Bradford & Bingley
LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Britain is nationalising mortgage lender Bradford
& Bingley (BB.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and selling part of
its business to Spanish bank Santander (SAN.MC: Quote, Profile, Research,
Stock Buzz).
Here are the highlights of a statement made by Britain's Finance Minister
Alistair Darling about the deal.
Morgan Stanley Chief Grappling With New Risk
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.
John J. Mack stood before his board and shareholders at Morgan Stanley’s
2007 annual meeting and struck an aggressive tone. Coming off a year of
record profits fueled by using the firm’s capital to take some highly
lucrative risks — particularly by diving deeply into subprime mortgages,
leveraged loans and complex derivatives — Mr. Mack had much to celebrate.
(March 11, 2008)
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/11/business/11wall.html?ref=business&pagewanted=all
In Frantic Day, Wall Street Banks Teeter
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
In one of the most dramatic days in Wall Street’s history, Merrill Lynch
agreed to sell itself on Sunday to Bank of America for roughly $50 billion to
avert a deepening financial crisis, while another prominent securities firm,
Lehman Brothers, hurtled toward liquidation after it failed to find a buyer.
(September 15, 2008)
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/business/15lehman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
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