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WTNT41 KNHC 152127
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
...CORRECTION OF THE 72H POSITION TEXT
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE
WESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEASON.
從本署與空軍備役颶風獵人機顯示出位於莫納水道(MONA PASSAGE)和
低壓區組合的環流變得更加明顯...包含中心東北端四十九節的一千五百呎飛
行高度風.同樣地偵察機發現中心以南的西風強到可以稱這系統為熱帶風暴...即使
這些西風只延伸到中心以南四十五浬. 根據以上細節...這低壓已升級為熱帶風
暴FAY...本大西洋颶風季第六個熱帶風暴
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A
WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
OR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR. WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS
IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL
TRACK. THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND
INTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY
TO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
起始動向為275度/12浬. FAY位置為低/中層脊南側...包含了大尺度模型預測中
在接下來48-96小時內一個弱點發展於墨西哥灣東部或是在佛羅里達. 當所有
的路徑預測同意這個弱點將會導致FAY在預報期末端時從西北西轉西北... THIS
IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL
TRACK. 北美中尺度模型報出FAY通過佛羅里達半島以東...而HWRF預測(FAY)登
陸於佛羅里達東南部. GFDL和NOGAPS預測一個更西邊的朝向灣區海岸東北
部的路徑...而GFS...ECMWF...以及綜合模式預測FAY沿著佛羅里達西部海岸附近
或是上空. 很棘手的是陸地地形影響的可能性造成不規則運動和中心重整. 路徑
預報將跟隨著綜合模式報出FAY穿過希斯盤紐拉以及古巴東部一角...
然後穿越佛羅里達群島附近或是上空以及佛羅里達西海岸.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL
BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE
STORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE
TIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
大尺度模型預報FAY會在接下來72-96小時內處於輕度風切環境. 因此...強度將會被地形
影響和內部結構所控制. 路徑預測報出FAY穿過希斯盤紐拉大部分以及古巴...這些
應該會限制到強度. 當中心出現於古巴北海岸顯著的增強是可預期的...
即使這很不確定到時候這風暴的組織會怎樣的發展. 強度預報將會報出六十節的尖
峰強度...以及有約30%的機會FAY可以在該時候發展成颶風. 必須注意的是從路
徑預報出現容許FAY位於水域更久的誤差會導致比現行預報中更強的風暴
(熱帶風暴警報已發布)
XTRW CRRT YFNT KDBY
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