[情報] 01W 形成

[Morbert ()]

94W 搶先拿到門票了，離2009第一個颱風只差臨門一腳囉~~

未來將轉向東北東移動，

路徑圖：http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/wp0109.gif


http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/wp0109web.txt

WTPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 124.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 124.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 13.7N 124.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 14.4N 124.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 15.2N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 15.9N 125.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 17.1N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 18.1N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 19.1N 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 124.3E.
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA INDICATE 30KT
WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TD01W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTH BEFORE AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SUPPRESS THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND INLFUENCES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 020051Z MAY 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 020100).

//
NNNN





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◆ From: 140.122.190.227
推 SWW         :居然是在菲律賓群島上形成~到底那裏有甚麼特殊地形뤠
→ SWW         :可以使風暴增強呢?
推 packie      :有沒有過該年第一個颱風就侵襲台灣的呢?應該沒有吧@@
→ packie      :那侵襲台灣的颱風編號最小的是該年第幾號颱風？
推 logdog      :回SWW 菲中群島會增強輻散 反而會使較弱的系統增強
→ logdog      :去年的0806風神 便是一個例子 在群島中 由TS變TY2級
推 logdog      :1995-2008 中有三年當年第一個颱風侵襲台灣
→ logdog      :http://rdc28.cwb.gov.tw/data.php
推 packie      :對喔～都忘了珍珠了 ：P
推 SWW         :嗯嗯我知道那裏會增強輻散~不過隨便一個群島都能造成
→ SWW         :這種現象嗎?
推 benian      :為什麼圖片的日期是6月的?
推 logdog      :這我也不是很清楚 要問專家 (遠目)
推 navarra     :由JTWC定位來看，並非在陸地上形成，雖說離陸地很近
→ navarra     :看它過去漂移的路徑也不算是在群島區內遊蕩
→ navarra     :看起來它的增強主要是受惠於高層良好輻散，再加上
→ navarra     :原本的96W減弱消散，少了個西南風水汽的競爭者