...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...安娜持續著向西行...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 160247
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BEEN PULSATING AND AFTER
AN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
EXPOSED AGAIN.
安娜的近中心對流一直脈動著,以及前後增加了幾個小時...低層中心以再次露出
THIS MEANS ANNA IS NOT STRENGTHENING AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. A NOAA JET FLEW AGAIN TONIGHT AND ONE
OF THE DROPS NEAR THE CENTER MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
WHICH WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
這意味著安娜沒有加強,以及初始強度保持在三十五節.一架本署的噴射機今晚再次飛行
並且其中接近中心的一個投落送測量出用於此報告的表面氣壓一零零四豪巴
THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AS
DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODELS BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ANA IS
SIMPLY MOVING TOO FAST.
風切並不像SHIPS模型判斷的強,但是安娜的低層中心只是移動的太快了
THIS RAPID MOTION IS PROBABLY NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS
THAT KEEP ANA ARE THE UK AND THE NOGAPS.
這個快速運動是不太能有利於增強. 事實上...唯一能跟著安娜的動力模型是UK和NOGAPS
THE REST OF THEM WEAKEN
ANA TO A TROPICAL WAVE. I AM TEMPTED TO SHOW WEAKENING BUT FOR
NOW...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE.
在其餘的(預測?)削弱安娜成為熱帶波.我希望能展示出減弱,但現在...我會按照之前的預
報和
SHIPS模型指導
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48
HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
官方預測顯示接下來四十八小時緩慢的增強後當氣旋與希斯盤紐拉和古巴的交互作用而減
弱
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. ANA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG AND
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS AND ONLY A SMALL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED.
初始運動為二七零度/十五浬. 安娜是內嵌著強大和持續的貿易風,以及只有許些轉向西北
西,
加上增加前進速度的預期
THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IS
WELL INSIDE THE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
官方預報比大部分的指導稍慢,但依然在四十八小時的範圍裡
THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS
KEEP A WEAKER ANA SOUTH OF CUBA AND OTHERS BRING THE CYCLONE OVER
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
之後...一些模型持有在古巴南方減弱的安娜,其他的為氣旋通過古巴並進入墨西哥灣
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE NORTHERNMOST GROUP
OF MODELS.
官方路徑預報非常相似於前一報,並且跟隨著模型群的最北邊
=========
...BILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...比爾通過大西洋極東部移動...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 160247
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT BILL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
衛星影像繼續顯示比爾逐漸地更加組織了許多對流帶的特徵
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS A BLEND
OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA.
無論如何...氣旋缺欠一個內核和近中心的深對流帶.初始強度依然保持著混合了德沃夏克
分級和
QUIKSCAT資料的三十五節
WITH THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...BILL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOME EVEN STRONGER THEREAFTER.
有利的環境在前方...比爾被預報成在接下來數日成為巨峰並之後更加強化
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.
這和SHIPS和GFDL/HWRF前後一至.
BILL IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS
WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL TRADE WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
比爾正向西移動,或是二七零度/十四節. 氣旋良好配合著熱帶貿易風,並將繼續在此一般
路徑
逐步向西北西轉向
THE ECMWF
WAS THE LEADER SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES A FEW RUNS AGO.
ECMWF之前幾次運算成為最先展示逐漸在一個位於槽美國東部的向北移動的趨勢
NOW...THE REST OF
THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...ARE FOLLOWING THE
ECMWF TUNE...AND ALL TURN BILL MORE THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
現在...其餘的模型...包含UK模型的例外...正在跟隨著ECMWF的調諧...在預測期內
所有(的模型)比爾更加向西北西和西北
BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
根據在模型的轉移... 官方預報轉向許些北向,並在於一群很緊密的指導範圍之中
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什麼嘛...這不是新阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲嗎?做得挺像的呢.
它是能把台北城總統府炸掉,逼迫碼因酒開城的批踢踢的決戰武器.
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