推 logdog :比較擔心比爾 照預報會很恐怖 08/17 19:27
熱帶低壓安娜
...ANA MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...安娜進入加勒比海東北部...
...省略...
熱帶風暴比爾
...BILL NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...比爾接近颶風強度...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 170253
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE TOPS TO -80C WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...ALONG
WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. A LONG...WELL-DEFINED BAND
CONNECTED TO THE ITCZ IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE
LESSER BANDING COILS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.
TAKING THE MEAN OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY WIND
SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT.
紅外線衛星影像顯露出在中心密雲裡有令人印象深刻的深對流雲頂到零下八十度...沿著
不斷擴張的高層環流.南半圓標示出有明確的雨帶連著ITCZ...較小的雨帶環繞著圓周的
北半部. 分別地...從SAB和TAFB的德沃夏克T數為三點五到四. 以強度估計取中間值...預
報
風速設定為六十節
RECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT YIELD AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED THAN BEFORE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. WITH LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE CURRENT MODEL CYCLE THROUGH THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
TRACK DEVIATES LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
最新的衛星影像中心定位有些不確定,但同意一個初始運動判斷為二九零度/十七節...
代表這前進速度比之前的還要稍快. 在北方的副熱帶脊的影響之下...預計比爾在接下來
的
四十八到七十二小時會保持正西北西方位走.
WITH LITTLE
SPREAD IN THE CURRENT MODEL CYCLE THROUGH THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL
TRACK DEVIATES LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THEREAFTER...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG 60W...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. MOST OF THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
SO HAS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ONLY THE UKMET FAVORS A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AND APPEARS AS THE LONE...SOUTHERN OUTLIER
AMONGST THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 96
HOURS...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
之後...模型指導在可能大約沿著西經六十度實質地突破對副熱帶脊上有一致性.
大多數的模型結論比前次更加轉向北方...所以有模型的一致性. 指有UKMET偏向更向
西北西走向...南方分支在其餘全球模型之中. 官方預報比前一報向北調整...特別在
九十六小時之後...根據最新的指導
EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW...BILL HAS BEEN
TRACKING OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WATERS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO WARM FURTHER UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE
GFDL/HWRF SHOW A NEARLY FLAT INTENSIFICATION RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...PERHAPS UNDERSCORING THE TEPID THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX
SHOWS A 41% CHANCE OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
即使環境風切相當低...比爾已經走過最低限度的海面溫度,以及不預測水域
會更加溫暖,直到二十四小時後. 令人感興趣的是...GFDL/HWRF顯示出在接下來一到二日
有平緩的增強率...也許強調了溫和的熱力學條件. 無論如何...必須注意的是....SHIPS
的
快速增強指數顯示出有百分之四十一的機會在接下來二十四小時增強三十節.
THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW
SHEAR AND WARMING WATERS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR BILL...ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE...
WHICH PREDICTS A FAIRLY STEADY RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL
OUTRUNS FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT
WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
之後...指導對低層風切和溫暖水域有良好一致性...仍許氣旋在預報期間發展成為主要颶
風
官方預報接近於SHIPS模型指導...預計在接下來數日裡有良好平穩的發展率.接近預報周
期
尾端...全球模型已經暗示增加的西向風切,當比爾超過有利的反氣旋流東南.
因此...官方強度預報顯示在接近範圍期末有許些減弱
...CLAUDETTE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA...
...克勞蒂特在佛羅里達州瓦爾頓堡海灘登陸...
000
WTNT44 KNHC 170247
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009
CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT. MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND
APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE
CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.
克勞蒂特在過去幾小時來沒有組織性. 都卜勒雷達速率依然支持四十到四十五節強度.
中等的西南西向風切以經影響了風暴...並顯然地避免了氣旋的增強
無論如何...雷達和衛星影像指示此系統持續增加強對流,主要在在圓周的東半圓...這些
在熱帶風暴風力的對流區有可能發生在海面. 現在即將登陸...克勞蒂特增強的機會窗口
正快
速地關上
THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS
MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10. THE TRACK FORECAST AND
REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
在幾小時前中心有些向西晃動,但現在多多少少以回道路徑上...儘管前進速度有些慢.
初始運動約三一五度/十節.路徑預報和推論依然直實上沒有改變. 熱帶氣旋應該持續在
中層高壓區邊緣移動直到在美國東南部消散.基本上官方預報為前一報更新版.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INLAND FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND
WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
此系統主要的憂慮為地區性的暴雨和內陸淹水.
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