→ logdog :比爾威力上調至110KT 美東錯咧等 08/19 01:19
推 killseven :也不一定影響的到啦 況且美國可以測離@@ 08/19 09:52
→ logdog :上調至cat.4了...囧 08/19 12:22
推 killseven :可能有機會成為今年目前為止最強颶風?? 08/19 16:49
熱帶低壓安娜
...CIRCULATION OF ANA HAS DISSIPATED...
...安娜的漩渦已消散...
(大西洋標準時下午五點為最後一報)
颶風比爾
...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
...比爾增強為二級颶風...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 180233
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
BILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE
HURRICANE IS GENERATING VERY DEEP...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME EVIDENT ASYMMETRIES. SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO REVEAL
AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED AN ABSENCE
OF INNER CORE FEATURES...BUT A 2229 SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS THAT BILL
MAY BE FINALLY FORMING AN INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND
5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.
比爾在大西洋熱帶地區緩慢增強. 颶風正產生非常深的...冷雲頂對流...儘管有些證據
顯示不對稱. 衛星影像同樣地展示出擴張的卷雲罩...推測有建立良好的高層溢流. 先早
的微波穿透推測比爾可能終於發展出內核.
TAFB和SAB個別地...給德沃夏克T數為四點五到
五點零. 基於以上資料估計...初始強度已上升到八十五節
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO PREVENT BILL FROM INTENSIFYING
FURTHER DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES
ON AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. PERHAPS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
FLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE INNER CORE FOR WHICH THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
FORECAST SKILL. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BILL
SHOULD REACH A PEAK IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND AFTER
72 HOURS.
這裡沒有明顯的理由阻止比爾在接下來幾天進一步增強...當強度指導有同意一個有低風
切和溫暖海面特徵的環境. 也許唯一的限制的因素
將是事實上沒有預報技巧去推測內核的波動.
指導大致上同意比爾應該約七十二小時到達巔峰強度.到預報周期底...全球模型已經預料
西南向風切的增加,當比爾開始離開到高層反氣旋的北方. 因此...官方預報顯示出七十
二小時後減弱的趨勢.
RECENT CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/15. THE
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS ALONG 50-55W IS
FORECAST TO ERODE A LARGE PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING AS SOON AS 24 HOURS FROM NOW. AS A
RESULT...THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT BILL HAS
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...BILL SHOULD BE STEERED
ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN
ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH ONLY COSMETIC
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
最新的中新定位導出初始運動估計為二八五度/十五節. 預報本質尚未改變. 預報從現在
到二十四小時在西經五十-五十五度的弱點侵蝕位於中大西洋大部分的副熱帶脊.
以此為結果...過去幾天來比爾維持的西北西路徑在四十八
到七十二小時應該開始更加向西北彎曲.
七十二小時之後...比爾應該西北西朝向向北路徑,IT SHOULD BEGIN
ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. 官方預報並非不同以往的報告組...只是在路徑預報上作修飾
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. BILL IS FORECAST TO GROW A LITTLE MORE IN
SIZE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME EVEN LARGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST.
根據最新的QUIKSCAT的飛越,風力半徑稍微調整. 預報比爾在預報範圍內增加自己的尺寸
...雖然有些像GFS的指導推測這有可能比本中心預報的更加巨大.
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