作者ALPHONSE2501 (Zwart Avenger)
看板TY_Research
標題[情報] 颶風比爾 #14
時間Wed Aug 19 15:26:52 2009
...BILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER...
...比爾為主要颶風...可能更加增強...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH
MISSION IN BILL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT BILL
HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE. HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 126 KT AT
700 MB...WITH THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB AT 0202 UTC.
THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 100 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE UW CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ADVANCED DVORAK VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 7.0.
BLENDING THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND DROPSONDE WINDS
WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.
由本署發起的颶風獵人機研究任務的報告和紅外線衛星影像指示出比爾已經經歷過
一段快速增強,而且現為主要颶風. 目前最高的飛航高度風為七百毫巴一二六節...含
在世界時0202時最新的最低氣壓為九二五毫巴.
最高的SFMR觀測的表面風速為一百節. 從TAFB和SAB一起最新的德沃夏克T數
為七點零. 混合了飛航高度...SMFR和頭落送以及衛星攝取的強度預測風速...
初始強度設定為一一零節. 有利的環境條件可能容許颶風在接下來二十四到三十六
小時更加增強
HOWEVER...EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...BILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TAKING A TOLL. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AROUND
96 HOURS...WITH A MORE DECIDED RATE OF WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
不過...眼牆制換循環...很難預料的現象...可能在強度產生一些波動.
無論如何...比爾預計在數天內維持為一個強而有力的颶風進入中北大西洋. 到了末期...
海面溫度將會在整個預報路徑下降, 南到西南向風切應該開始出現. 結果...官方強度預
報報出在九十六小時左右減弱...包含在末期更加快速減弱.
BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 295/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT
CHANGED. BILL IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD INTO A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHERE IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
基於飛機和衛星的定位...初始運動估計為二九五度/十三節...代表了一個更加許些
向北的轉向. 路徑預報的觀點尚未改變. 預測比爾在接下來數天將朝向西北向,
進入在副熱帶脊一個顯著的弱點...這將會在非尋常的深長波進入美國東部. 此方向
特徵應該造成比爾轉北向,然後轉北北東向...含一些前進速度的增加. 路徑預報在此一
情況合理地達成一至性...含在指導範圍之中的官方預報
=======================
此處說在美東的長波是指什麼東西?
--
什麼嘛...這不是新阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲嗎?做得挺像的呢.
它是能把台北城總統府炸掉,逼迫碼因酒開城的批踢踢的決戰武器.
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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 72.67.205.87
→ killseven :似乎現在的路徑 影響不到美國本土 但是加拿大有機會 08/19 16:53
推 logdog :覺得翻成強烈颶風或大型颶風會比較好一點 08/19 17:46
推 logdog :比爾 四級颶風了...恐怖 08/19 17:55
推 logdog :更正 目前北半球風王是東太平洋的08E FELICIA 125KT 08/19 18:05
推 logdog :我幫你轉去對岸問問 08/19 18:08
推 logdog :不過我猜測 是西風槽 08/19 18:12
推 tmomotoo :長波longwave，我猜是颱風低壓在海上所形成的湧浪 08/19 19:46
→ tmomotoo :這種波浪wave的特徵是周期超長，是颱風特有 08/19 19:48
推 chemevil :longwave trough 是指西風槽 08/19 21:41
推 jerryhu5602 :Bill的T指數之大怒神圖超帥 08/19 23:49
推 logdog :VAMCO要對決BILL了 有要爆發的趨勢... 08/20 01:56
推 w0420cc :怎麼看比爾的T值啊 08/20 09:08
推 w0420cc :嗯!找到了 不過T值好像回探了 是減弱了嗎 08/20 09:11
→ logdog :BILL有一段眼牆置換的過程... 08/20 09:32