推 justloveaki :簽名檔...XD 08/20 14:03
推 logdog :BILL 減弱為三級 目前跟VAMCO一樣 08/20 16:41
→ logdog :不過看起來是眼牆置換的結果 換完應會恢復四級 08/20 16:42
推 evanzxcv :最後一段應該是美國"東"海岸 西海岸是沒有颶風的XD 08/20 20:51
推 logdog :因為加州涼流是不是XDDDD 08/20 21:57
...BILL MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...
...比爾維持著第四級的強度...
000
WTNT43 KNHC 200246
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009
DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO BILL
INDICATE THAT IT IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT...AND
A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL MEASURED A MEAN
WIND OF 134 KT OVER THE THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF SOUNDING. THE
SFMR MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 108 KT. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUPPORT A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
本署的飛機進行研究任務所取得的資料指示比爾維持著本身的強度.
飛機回報一四零節的飛航高度風七百毫巴的極值...以及從眼牆東北邊釋放的投落送
在最低高度一五零公尺上方測量得平均風速一三四節. SMFR測量出海面最大風速
一零八節. 混合這些資料支持了本預報的強度一一五節.
BILL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/15. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT ON THIS GENERAL
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BILL
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED THEREAFTER. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER RANGES...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
比爾正向西北西移動,三零五度/十五節. 颶風北邊的副熱帶脊預計在數日內維持
總方向. 之後...預報脊的破點在西大西洋發展...比爾應該在本周末開始在強烈的
中緯度槽之前轉向北. 總體而言...路徑模型已顯示出在接下來一到二日的發展有
良好一至性...所以官方預報維持接近在密群的導引中心. 在七十二小時中本中心
新的路徑預報非常相似於上一預報...之後只須要稍微向西調整. 重要的是要記得
在長期範圍的預報存在著不確定性...所以應該不用太關注於精確的預報路徑
BILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W
MAY CAUSE IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE STRONG TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS SHOULD IMPART A MORE RAPID RATE
OF WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL BEGINNING TO INTERACT
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
比爾預計在接下來數入內在溫暖水域維持強度. 在水氣影像看到沿著西經七十度的
一個高層槽可能在數日內造成在颶風上方的西南向高層風的增加. 無論如何...SHIPS模型
顯示風切將基本上維持微弱, 強度指引在接下來數日裡保持著颶風的強度. 七十二小時後
...
強烈槽前的西南向高層流和涼冷的SSTS應該給予更加強烈的減弱率. 全球模型顯示比爾
在九十六小時開始和斜壓區互相影響...所以氣旋應該比本預測更早成為副熱帶(氣旋).
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
由此颶風產生的大浪將會在接下來數日影響黎渥島北部...巴哈馬...百慕達和大部分
美國西海岸. 這接浪將很可能造成極為危險的湧浪和致命的急暗流.
更詳細的細節請查詢由你附近的地方氣象部門發佈的公告
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什麼嘛...這不是新阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲嗎?做得挺像的呢.
它是能把台北城總統府炸掉,逼迫碼因酒開城的批踢踢的決戰武器.
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