推 evanzxcv :BILL已經走了。我人在波士頓，今天凌晨下了一點點雨 08/23 20:47
→ evanzxcv :目前對美國已經沒威脅,倒是新斯科細亞準備被轟炸... 08/23 20:49
000
WTNT43 KNHC 220245
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
THE STRUCTURE OF BILL HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING...WITH
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REMNANT OF AN INNER EYEWALL AND THE
FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL. ALSO...THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SIGNS OF
A LARGER EYE TRYING TO FORM IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY IN
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL...THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS LESS
IMPRESSIVE...AS COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
90 KT BASED ON 0000 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL AND WILL
PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
比爾的結構在今晚持續發展...微波影像顯示出內風眼的殘骸和外風眼的結構.
同樣地在過去幾小時來在同部衛星影像中也有更大風眼形成的跡象. 總體而言...
雲層分布看起來沒有起色...當西半圓的冷雲頂已經消失. 所以這就是說...
根據世界時零時從TAFB和SAB的德沃夏克T數五點零,初始強度維持在九十節...
但這可能有點太寬大了. 一架空軍備役颶風獵人機現正前往調查比爾的路上,並
在數小時內將提共更多強度和結構的細節.
IF BILL IS ABLE TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...THERE IS
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND
SOME STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT BILL COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN
SHOWN HERE...AS THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 30 TO
35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT BILL WILL BE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 12 TO
24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE
CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS MUCH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN TWO OR THREE DAYS...AND THE WIND RADII AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES.
假如比爾能夠完成風眼至換循環...這裡有些在在颶風越過北大西洋暖
流之前二十四小時的增強機會...許些的增強已經在官方預報顯示.
這裡有些比爾能夠增強到比本報稍強的機會...當強度機率表顯示約三十到
三十五百分比的機會比爾將在十二到二十四小時裡成為三級颶風. 二十四小時之後...
當氣旋遭遇更低溫的海面水溫和風切的增加時預測穩定減弱.預計在二到
三日裡發生溫帶變性...風力半徑和強度預報試圖說明這些結構變化.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/17. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...ACCELERATING BILL TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
初始運動測得為三四五度/十七節. 路徑指引維持在非常良好的一至性...比爾
在移入美國東北部的大型中緯度槽前加速前往北和東北. 結果...只有少數
已在前一套件作出改變.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.
由比爾產生的大浪開始抵達美國東海岸沿岸.這接浪將在整個周末延伸...
造成極端危險的大浪和致命的急流.更多的細節請查詢你當地的氣象部門.
WHILE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
NEW ENGLAND...A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING ON
SATURDAY. THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 15 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
當熱帶風暴風力未預報底查新英格蘭...路徑預報裡向左的轉變可能
須要在星期六時發佈熱帶風暴注意或是警戒. 風速機率指出有一個十五到二十
百分比的機會熱帶風暴風力接觸新英格蘭極東南部.
THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM A 2322 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS...DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41048 AND OBSERVATIONS FROM
BERMUDA.
初始風力半徑已根據從世界時二三二二時QUIKSCAT衛星掃描...從本署BUOY浮標
四一零四八號和百慕達的觀測的資料作調整.
--
Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)
Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 72.67.205.87