推 evanzxcv :我在波士頓,上次比爾這邊沒事,這次丹尼可能更接近... 08/27 19:14
→ evanzxcv :幸好丹尼看起來虛弱很多 現在還在裸奔當中 08/27 19:14
000
WTNT45 KNHC 270246
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009
AFTER THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LEFT DANNY EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT A
NEW LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS FORMING FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS DISTORTED AND
LIKELY CONSISTS OF A BROAD CENTER WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. NONETHELESS...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION THIS EVENING DID RELAY SOME
RELIABLE SFMR DATA WHICH SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR
45 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE FROM THIS FLIGHT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 1006 MB.
空軍颶風獵人機在今午稍早離開後...從可見光衛星影像推測一個新的低層中心
更加向東北接近深對流區形成. 整體的環流依然彎曲著並有可能和延伸到西南
鋒利的海面槽組合. 無論如何...今晚一架由本署的颶風獵人機發起的研究任務
重新放置可靠的SMFR資料,推測在中新東北方一百海里的深對流區裡的最大風力
接近四十五節. 該機的一個投落送指示出最小中心氣壓已經降到接近一零零六毫巴.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/9...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE REFORMING. THE FORECAST
TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT IS
STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A EASTWARD-MOVING
MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THEREAFTER...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
PARALLELING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. IT SHOULD STILL BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO
THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WOULD BRING DANNY
CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.
初始運動推估為三一零度/九節...但從中心顯示出即將重整,這數字有高度不確定性.
路徑預報推論尚未改變...模型處於良好一至性到七十二小時. 預計丹尼向西北移動,
然後在四十八小時時當朝向副熱帶脊和一個位於墨西哥灣北部作西向移動的低層
低壓之間向北移動. 此後...預計丹尼加速朝向西北西...和中大西洋以及新英格蘭
海岸平行移動...當他開始在五大湖加深中的高層槽前頭嵌入. 在這裡仍應指出
直到七十二小時裡的路徑預報中任何向左的偏差會讓丹尼帶到美國東海岸.
ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DANNY...BUT IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHY THEY MAKE THE CYCLONE SO STRONG. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO 40 KT...AND MUCH MORE...ONCE DANNY ACCELERATES TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS MYSTERIOUSLY SHOW
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 70-75 KT ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES.
SINCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY REALISTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIMITS THE INTENSITY AT 65 KT. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
KEEPS DANNY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS AND FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT
DANNY COULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT IS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.
所有的強度指引持續報出丹尼的增強...但是這裡不清楚為何他們造能氣旋如此強勁
高層環境預計將有利於在接下來三十六到四十八小時裡增強...但之後垂直風切預報
增加到四十節..以及更多...自從丹尼加速向北和東北. SHIPS和LGEM模型神祕地
現出一旦風切增強,此系統增強到七十到七十五節. 自從此現向看不出來有多實際...
官方預報限制了強度為六十五節. 儘管官方預報維持丹尼為一個熱帶氣旋在七十二
小時裡...全球模型場和FSU氣旋位向空間圖表推測丹尼應該會到接近新英格蘭的時候
成為溫帶氣旋.
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一如往常地,從周二起一個高氣壓在亞利桑那增強產生的離陸風減弱了海風
周三整個南加內陸出現乾熱天氣. 在周五有些熱點會上站華式一一零度,或是
創下新高溫紀錄.沒有空調的人會有危險(雖然我家沒用冷氣機很久了)
洛杉磯北方發生的森林野火發佈了紅旗警報,但是灰霾的空氣讓我看不到煙雲柱...
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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)
Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942
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