WTPN21 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 153.3E TO 14.7N 145.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 251730Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
152.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
155.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) AND A 251931Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
LOW LEVEL BANDS CONVERGING NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING JUST WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ACCESS TO POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 DEGREES TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
262100Z.//
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